Sony Open 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Chris Kirk is the first winner on the PGA Tour in the 2024 season after outlasting a slew of challengers, Jordan Spieth included, at The Sentry. But the Opening Drive to start this year on the PGA Tour will keep us in Hawaii for another week as we head to Waialae Country Club for the 2024 Sony Open.

Waialae offers one of the most unique tests on the PGA Tour, especially in comparison to Kapalua last week. While the latter is longer by roughly 500 yards, length and accuracy off of the tee is actually more important to have success at the Sony Open. It's also unique in rewarding both length and accuracy, which isn't something you always see.

With our first round of expert picks and best bets, we essentially broke even at -0.1 units. Let's get into the black this week at Waialae, though, as we put forth our 2024 Sony Open picks and best bets for this week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through The Sentry: 2-4-0, -0.1 Units (0-2 on outrights and longshots | -0.1 Units at The Sentry) | One and Done Total for 2024: $690,500 (Collin Morikawa at The Sentry, $690,500)

PGA Tour expert picks for Sony Open: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Sony Open: Chris Kirk (+275, DraftKings)

Normally, it's hard to put full stock into last week's winner to come out in his next tournament and find success. But Chris Kirk seems like someone who has a steady mental make-up to pull it off in addition to success often being strangely correlated between The Sentry and Sony Open. On top of that, Kirk has been money at Waialae with two Top 3 finishes in his last three starts here (the other was a Top 30). He may not win again, but I think these odds to finish Top 10 aren't nearly good enough for a player in this form with great recent course history.

Outright pick for Sony Open 2024 (0.5 Units): J.T. Poston (+3000)

I'm calling my shot a bit based on where I think J.T. Poston is trending and what we know he can do when he gets hot. Yes, his history at this event isn't particularly great but he does have two Top 21 finishes in his last five starts. But he's finished Top 5 in two of his three most recent overall events while putting the lights out, getting steadier and longer off of the tee, and while gaining 0.46 strokes on approach over that span. It's trying to predict where he's trending, but I think he has a great chance to pick up a win at Waialae.

One and Done pick for the Sony Open: J.T. Poston

Going back to the Poston well here. The purse isn't quite big enough for me to invest fully into a bigger name and I don't see a ton of places where I'll be jumping to use Poston. Since I like him to win this week, I'll back that up by also taking him for the One and Done.

Sony Open picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Will Zalatoris to Miss the Cut at Sony Open (+122)

This will be Will Zalatoris' first full-field PGA Tour event since returning from injury after he played at the Hero World Challenge. Everyone hopes that the young hitter gets his mojo back soon, but we saw precisely no sign of that at the Hero. Zalatoris finished dead-last in the 20-player field, losing 3.58 strokes tee-to-green and more than a stroke putting too. Throw in that he can be a bit erratic with the driver when he's fully healthy and not coming off of a serious back injury, getting plus-money to miss the cut with Willy Z is hard to pass up.

Ludvig Åberg and Corey Conners to finish Top 20 at Sony Open parlay (+371)

I fully admit that I was all the way in on Ludvig Åberg last week and it bit me. But Waialae is where he should be the pick, not at a place that doesn't fully reward his elite skill set off of the tee. His combo of length and accuracy with the driver is lethal and should set him apart at the Sony Open. As for Corey Conners, he's finished T12 or better here in his last four starts and has gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts here. With his driving and ball striking at a place where he's historically been able to roll it, asking both of these guys to finish Top 20 doesn't feel like a major ask.

Joel Dahmen to finish Top 30 at Sony Open (+275, DraftKings)

This is a bit of an out-of-left-field type of pick, but I like what Joel Dahmen could do here. In his last three starts at the Sony Open, he's missed a cut but also finished T12 and T22. Moreover, the ball striking has been there lately, gaining 1.23 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds. If he can find anything with the putter, a Top 30 should be easy to come by for a player who has the juice to contend every week if he gets things clicking.

Longshot bet to win the Sony Open (0.1 Units): Ben Kohles (+10000)

I'm not confident enough to play Ben Kohles for a finishing position, but I'll sprinkle on him to win as a 100-1 longshot all day long. He won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and ultimately finished top on the points list to earn his PGA Tour card. Then, at the RSM Classic, he went out and finished T5 in the fall. He's an elite putter, which always plays at Waialae but also gained 1.47 strokes on approach with that last start for him. He could be someone who makes serious noise, and he has my attention.