Spencer Arrighetti’s emergence could bump unlikely starter from potential postseason rotation

The Houston Astros rebounded from back-to-back losses with a truly dominant display in Wednesday's 10-0 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. Aided by another especially poor performance on the mound from Taijuan Walker, the Astros' offense flourished behind three home runs from Yordan Alvarez. Meanwhile, the pitching battle was utterly lopsided in Houston's favor. Spencer Arrighetti, the 24-year-old rookie, put together his best start of the campaign.

Arrighetti carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning before the jinxes took effect. He finished the game allowing two hits, four walks, and zero earned runs across 7.2 innings. Arrighetti also notched 11 strikeouts en route to his second straight game without coughing up a run. It took a while, but the rook appears to be hitting his stride at the perfect moment for the Astros.

With Arrighetti gaining steam and newcomer Yusei Kikuchi throwing molten lava, the Astros face a bit of a conundrum. As we project toward the playoffs, one would naturally expect Justin Verlander to be one of the starting pitcher locks. He's a living legend, one of the most accomplished postseason weapons of the last decade. Of course Houston is going to start him.

And yet, Verlander has been on a noticeable downslide of late. His ERA is 4.16 through 12 starts this season. At 41 years old, Verlander is operating on a condensed timeline after missing half the season with a nagging shoulder ailment. It's tough to build rhythm on the fly in your prime. I'd imagine it's twice as hard when you're in the twilight of your career, as Verlander surely is.

The recent product has been particularly tough to stomach. Verlander has allowed 14 earned runs over his last four starts (20.0 innings). That includes 25 hits and four walks during that span. His knockout stuff just isn't there right now, and the Astros only have so much time before the playoffs arrive.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Spencer Arrighetti could force Astros to change plans with Justin Verlander

Verlander's injury has complicated (or un-complicated) his contract status for next season. A potential $17.5 million guarantee is off the books, which means Verlander is essentially a free agent when the season ends. The Astros won't want to shell out that much for Verlander and, at 41, it's more than fair to wonder how many years the three-time Cy Young winner actually has left in the tank.

With Verlander less and less a part of Houston's long-term plans, it could behoove Joe Espada and the managerial staff to consider bringing JV out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Can Houston justify trotting Verlander out instead of Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, or the red-hot Kikuchi to start games? Probably not. If Arrighetti forces his way into the mix, then it only becomes that much harder to mount a case in favor of Verlander.

Such a case would, of course, be rooted in Verlander's decades of experience and past postseason success with Houston. He's something of a proven commodity and there's still time for Verlander to build back momentum before the playoffs. That said, Father Time is an undefeated figure in the realm of sports. Even the best hit a roadblock eventually. It took Verlander longer than most, but his status in the Astros' rotation is beginning to falter.

There is a major difference between what the Astros should do with Verlander and what the Astros will do with Verlander. There are countless examples of teams riding with experience and pedigree over younger, better options (see: Walker, Taijuan, Philadelphia Phillies). The Astros have a ton of respect for Verlander, as they should, but it's probably time to prepare for a role change once the bright October lights flicker on.