Teams wanting to trade up for Drake Maye won't like latest NFL Draft update

It may be one in a million, but don't count on it. So you're telling me there's a chance? No, not really but nothing is set in stone just yet. All signs point to a quarterback being taken with the first three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Should a team trade up to No. 4 in a deal with the Arizona Cardinals, it could be four-for-four. Thus, teams still outside of the top three have virtually no shot at Drake Maye.

Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer's latest intel suggests what the first three picks of Thursday night's draft will be. He projects it will be USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams first to the Chicago Bears, LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels second to the Washington Commanders and Maye third to the New England Patriots. Breer then said he would be stunned if it is not Daniels and Maye two-three.

I love to be proven wrong, but I 100 percent agree with Breer's assessment of the situation. Williams then Daniels then Maye is the right pecking order for first-round quarterbacks to be taken. Williams has the highest ceiling. Daniels has a higher floor than Maye. Maye offers the widest variance of any potential first-round quarterback. The only person who can throw a wrench in this is J.J. McCarthy.

I am of the belief that the Minnesota Vikings will trade up to either No. 4 or No. 5 to draft McCarthy.

Let's take a look at why Breer's intel is actually a great thing for the NFL if this all were to hold true.

Good luck to any NFL team trying to trade up for UNC QB Drake Maye

Truth be told, we have no earthly idea how any of the prospects are going to perform at the next level. The NFL Draft is a total crapshoot to its core. For as much information you can get on a guy, you never know if his body will hold up or what is going on between his ears. We really don't know. What we do know is you won't retain your job as a front office executive if you do something bad in a draft.

For that reason, you must operate with some level of game theory. If I don't take this really good player, he thrives elsewhere and my guy bombs, what happens to me? The right order to take the four first-round locks at quarterback are Williams, Daniels, Maye and McCarthy. I go back and forth when it comes to QB5 between Bo Nix of Oregon and Michael Penix Jr. of Washington, but who really cares?

For example, if the Bears were to take somebody else other than Williams first, Ryan Poles might be gone anyway, even if McCarthy is really, really good for Chicago. You don't pass on potentially the next Patrick Mahomes at No. 1, even if he does display some Jeff George tendencies. Washington has to take Daniels because he is far more fail-proof than Maye. What if he killed it with New England?

Adam Peters may not be as crucified as Poles would for taking Maye over Daniels, but you don't want to be the guy who drafted Sam Bowie when Michael Jordan was still on the board. Although New England may be really high on McCarthy, for the value, you have to take Maye there because what if he goes to the Vikings? He could be the next Aaron Rodgers playing for Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota.

While McCarthy could be a perfect cultural fit with New England, this is Jerod Mayo and Eliot Wolf's first draft in charge. No longer are the subjected to whatever nonsense Bill Belichick was doing with his dog on NFL Draft nights of yesteryear. If they don't get the quarterback right, they both will be fired. Thus, it is safer to go with a guy who can be Rodgers rather than reach on the next Brock Purdy.

Overall, Breer's assessment of the situation is right. Why would the Patriots take McCarthy at No. 3 when they are guaranteed to have either Daniels or Maye still on the board. We know that they are totally comfortable with taking whoever Washington does not. In a way, they don't have to make that hard of a decision. The Washington brass is the team inside the top three tossing and turning at night.

Yes, a Godfather offer could be what is required to move up to No. 2 or No. 3 to be in a position to draft Maye. Right now, I have a hard time seeing any of the first three teams on the clock moving off the picks. The draft techincally starts when the Bears are on the clock, but it might really be the case when the Cardinals are on the clock at No. 4. Do they trade back or do they take Marvin Harrison Jr.?

If there was a time to trade up for Maye, that would have been weeks ago before his top-30 visits.