The Fifth Down: The NFL has a sack problem

If there’s one Halloween villain to fear this year, it’s not the Boogeymen — it’s the Sack Monster.
This season, NFL quarterbacks have succumbed to pressure more than ever before. Terrified onlookers have been in a frenzy and they’ve looked to place blame. 

Unfortunately, the NFL community always tends to angle their torches and pitchforks at the usual scapegoat — the offensive line.

In reality, the issues are much more complex. When a quarterback succumbs to an overload pressure or a complex stunt, it’s easy to assume that the offensive linemen failed to do their job. But that’s not always the case. Usually, there’s enough blame to go around for everyone.

“I think the offensive line gets way too much of the blame because protection [has] a holistic approach to it, everybody’s involved,” Aaron Rodgers told Pat McAfee on McAfee’s eponymous show.

“Sometimes guys get beat, and those [sacks] are on the [offensive] line, but I would say there’s a lot more to it that doesn’t get talked about.”

In this particular tale, Rodgers is the wise elder cautioning the rest of the league to look deeper into the root of the pervasive problem that’s plaguing offenses across the league. 

Inexperienced quarterbacks can be easily spooked by heavy pressure, to the point that they start seeing ghosts. Sometimes, quarterbacks need to stand tall in the pocket and make a throw, even when they know they’re going to take a big hit. To paraphrase FDR, there’s nothing to fear but the fear of sacks itself. And after a month of sloppy football, there’s a lot to fear about the way most offenses are conducting business.

The NFL has a sack problem

Through five weeks of the 2023 season, defenses across the league have feasted on opposing quarterbacks. In 78 games, defenses have racked up a staggering 412 sacks (5.28 sacks per game). 

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell was sacked five times in Thursday night’s loss to the Bears, giving him a total of 29 sacks through the first five games of the season. The current NFL record for most sacks in a single season is 76, set by David Carr with the 2002 Houston Texans, who were a newly-formed expansion team. Over a 17-game season, Howell’s current total would put him on pace for a record-shattering 99 sacks. 

That’s assuming Howell makes it that far, of course. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones was under constant pressure against the Miami Dolphins in Week 5 and ultimately suffered a neck injury on his sixth sack of the afternoon. It was only a matter of time. Even with his early departure in the fourth quarter, Jones has been sacked 28 times through five games this season.

Jones’ injury comes one week after he endured 10 sacks at Lumen Field. In that game, the Seattle Seahawks tied a franchise record for most sacks in a single game (11). Meanwhile, Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Khalil Mack entered that same weekend without a single sack, but left the field with six of them, just one sack shy of the NFL’s single-game sack record. 

Perhaps the season’s first significant sack was foreboding the horrors to come when it claimed a Super Bowl-favorite protagonist. Less than four minutes after kickoff, Leonard Floyd crashed into the New York Jets backfield and took down quarterback Aaron Rodgers, ending his season with a torn Achilles tendon. Rodgers’ injury epitomizes the Jets’ decades-long curse, an omen for superstitious fans who cautiously hoped this season would be different.

But even though he’s not on the field, Rodgers is the NFL’s oldest active quarterback, and he still understands the position better than anyone else playing it. He knows that most of the work to ensure his protection needs to happen before the center snaps the ball. A full understanding of the play, and of football, can ease the quarterback’s nerves — and the offensive line’s job — as he strives to make million-dollar decisions in split seconds. 

“There’s abilities for quarterbacks … to adjust protections, to change the slide side, [to] re-mike guys, keep guys in… There’s a lot of things that go into it,” Rodgers explained. “What’s the stress point in protection? Where am I picked up? Where am I looking? Where is my quick throw answer? You’ve got to put it all together.”

For the most part, quarterbacks haven’t been able to prevent their own murders.

This isn’t to discredit the power and skill it takes for defensive players to attack the quarterback and record sacks — any bit of 2023 tape will show the talent that pass rushers possess. If anything, NFL rule changes are preventing defenders from doing their jobs, instead paving the way for arcade-style football.  

Still, in this record year for sacks, something is amiss. Although struggling teams with inexperienced quarterbacks have been responsible for many of the sacks, it’s not enough to explain the league-wide issue with pressure.  It’s not as if offensive lines have all collectively gotten worse, as the situation varies team by team. But what has overwhelmingly declined in recent years are the responsibilities that were once placed on quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. 

“I think with everything coming from the sidelines now, you see … there’s very little on the quarterback, to change the play, run-to-pass checks, pass-to-run checks,” Rodgers explained to McAfee. “Most of it is just built in… Some of these offenses have built-in protection schemes that aren’t very heavy for the quarterback. I never liked that because I feel like the quarterback should have an innate understanding of protection because that’s where the entire passing game starts: up-front.”

Lessening the burden of processing the field and understanding protection schemes has allowed quarterbacks to see the field quicker, but it’s also created a generation of young, underdeveloped quarterbacks who focus more on extending plays with their legs than extending plays through setting offensive line protections. In fact, most quarterbacks aren’t even expected to set their own protections anymore, as that responsibility has largely shifted onto the center.

As touted as modern college quarterbacks are, no amount of talent will overcome adequate preparation — something that contemporary quarterbacks appear to lack. 

“I don’t know how you can play quarterback in this league without an innate understanding of protection,” Rodgers said. “It starts with an innate understanding of the defense you’re facing, the type of blitz packages they have, and how [to] adjust the protection in order to give us a chance to move the ball down the field.”

The NFL has a patience problem

For a quarterback, decision-making does not happen in a vacuum. It begins before the snap. It begins before getting in the huddle, and even before game day. It begins in the film room, with hours of tape, monotonously studying the nuances and subtleties of a defense.

All of the league’s greatest quarterbacks needed time to develop. The San Francisco 49ers groomed Steve Young behind Joe Montana. Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre for three years. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes both spent their rookie years on the bench. Peyton Manning, who was thrust into the spotlight immediately, threw 28 interceptions in his rookie season. No team starting a rookie quarterback has ever made it to a Super Bowl, much less won one.

Fifteen years after drafting Rodgers, the Packers drafted Jordan Love, who also sat for three years before starting in 2023. The Packers do benefit from a low strength of schedule this season, but they also benefit from the patient, measured approach the team took with developing Love. Perhaps that’s one benefit from the traditionally stoic organization: there aren’t splashy acquisitions, but there’s also a minimization of risk by chasing a star college quarterback at the last minute. 

After all they’ve given up for Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears are already facing the possibility of replacing him in 2024. The Carolina Panthers’ decision to sell the farm for Bryce Young looks regrettable — one rookie Heisman winner isn’t enough to save them from being the NFL’s only winless team. 

To adjust to the speed and complexity of professional football, young quarterbacks need something that fans have been unwilling to give: time. It’s counterintuitive, but the league has always had a problem with patience.

Far too often, coaches and players are given a short leash. They must produce results, or fans will start booing and pressuring owners to burn everything down and start over. Robert Kraft may not listen, but Bears ownership did — and has the shift from one Matt to another been all that successful so far?

Heavy turnover throughout every level of NFL organizations means that teams are ring-chasing for today, not tomorrow. With a high rate of replacement threatening everyone’s career, franchises lack the foresight to thoroughly develop a championship roster and culture, designing a roster to suit a particular coach’s system. The most successful franchises and quarterbacks are the ones that have stability in the front office and at the head coach position — Andy Reid didn’t turn the Chiefs into a juggernaut overnight.

That’s a primary reason why New England had a dynasty, and it’s also why the Pittsburgh Steelers have consistently remained competitive. Franchises should focus on finding the right coach who will have the ability and security to develop a good quarterback. Otherwise, the NFL machine will chew up and spit out any spark of talent that comes its way, regardless of a player’s potential. Constant turnover only leads to inconsistency and turmoil, but fans and owners alike don’t want to win in a few years, they want to win now. 

The NFL has a development problem

Gone are the days when exciting rookie quarterbacks would be relegated to the bench for their rookie season. Instead of benching rookies so they can gain professional experience, college stars are expected to start immediately and single-handedly save failing franchises. Now, they are thrust right into the spotlight, and at first glance, it looks like a no-lose situation for everyone involved.

As teams started to have success with read-option plays out of shotgun or pistol formations, many fans praised the adaptation as a welcomed and exciting change. Fans are excited to see their electrifying rookie quarterback on the field, owners are pleased with the revenue, coaches keep their jobs, and no one has paused to notice how watered-down the offense has become. 

At the professional level, offenses used to place much more burden on the quarterback’s shoulders. That has always been a major factor in the difficulty of scouting the quarterback position. Successful college stars have trouble making the transition not just because the opponents are bigger and faster, but so are the playbooks and games.

Because NFL coaches are more focused on short-term job retention than long-term player development, they’re ripping pages out of the college playbook, which aims to simplify offenses for developing quarterbacks. In an effort to hasten development, coaches began to incorporate college concepts into their offensive systems. In the past several years, much of the college game has bled into professional football. 

Starting immediately worked for Justin Herbert, who broke rookie passing records, but Herbert has little to his name beyond that season. People doubted Josh Allen early on; Joe Burrow exited his rookie season early due to injury — even Patrick Mahomes didn’t thrive as a rookie because Andy Reid made the right move by keeping him on the bench. Having one year to prepare allowed Reid to develop an offense that catered to Mahomes’ strengths, which allowed him to explode onto the scene in 2018 and win two Super Bowls in the years since. 

Even though the NFL is suffering from a dearth of quarterback experience, the new model manages to wring the most out of collegiate talent immediately, although rushing them onto the field has consequences. Consider the sophomore success of Jared Goff when guided by Sean McVay, who helped him read defenses through his headset. In SB LIII, the Patriots disguised their defensive coverage until after Goff’s headset cut off, leaving him alone to read the coverage. Clearly, that didn’t work out: the Rams scored 3 points in the loss.

The quick fix that has propped up college quarterbacks has reconfigured the football ecosystem, creating a generation of quarterbacks that lack the processing capabilities of their predecessors. While a handful of quarterbacks who have been thrust into the spotlight have managed to grow, the pitfalls described by Rodgers have still plagued them. 

Contemporary quarterbacks tend to hit the panic button under pressure and roll out of clean pockets, creating unnecessary pressure for themselves. Other times, quarterbacks are back-pedaling into oblivion, and when pass rushers catch up, it’s 4th and 42. 

“There’s some sacks where the quarterback is dropping back too deep,” Rodgers said. “If you get back beyond 10 yards, it’s tough on a tackle to set that edge and expect you to be able to step up in that sweet spot, which is seven-and-a-half yards, he’s trying to run his guy ten [yards] back.”

This proved to be a critical flaw for Mahomes during the 2020 season. His 2018 debut stunned the NFL with his evasive mobility and big-arm throws, but throughout his early years, Mahomes was prone to poor decisions due to his tendency to bail. 

Simplifying the quarterback’s job has given training wheels to young passers, and rather than ever learning to ride on their own, teams are trying to ride into the sunset with the training wheels still on. Eventually, the training wheels spin off, sending quarterbacks like Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson flying face-first into mediocrity. 

If sacks continue to happen at the current rate, it won’t just be a year for the books. It will endanger the health of quarterbacks as they suffer more and more hits, many of which could be avoided if quarterbacks have a better understanding of the pre-snap process. It will also signal the end of an era when quarterbacks could stand on their own two feet, equipped with enough football knowledge to contribute to the team’s play design. It’s telling that the game is falling apart as soon as the old generation of quarterbacks is no longer playing it. 

“Tom [Brady] was a guy who did it,” Rodgers said. “Tom knew protection. Tom adjusted. Tom changed the mike. Tom was able to adjust for four weak and overload pressure.”

The solution to the NFL’s sack problem lies in the past, with Brady and Rodgers as paragons of proper quarterback development. Instead of scrambling to blame offensive lines, teams should focus on equipping quarterbacks with the knowledge to handle pre-snap responsibilities. Ultimately, the onus rests on NFL coaches to teach their quarterbacks how to read the field themselves.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 6

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 14-3

Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 14 consecutive games. George Kittle had his first three-touchdown game. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are still making key plays to keep the offense churning. On defense, Nick Bosa continues terrorizing quarterbacks, and Fred Warner — the league’s best middle linebacker — sweeps up everything behind him.

This team has enough strengths to cover up its few weaknesses. There is no other team as well-rounded and dominant as San Francisco. Against Dallas, the 49ers became just the fifth team in NFL history to score 30 points in nine consecutive regular season games. The quarterbacks for the other four teams were Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. That’s a good list of names for Brock Purdy to be associated with.

Speaking of Purdy, he is now 10-0 in the regular season. It helps to have a defense that’s allowed fewer than 20 points in four of its five games this season, but Purdy is more than just a product of his environment. His four touchdown passes against the Cowboys all came from outside the pocket, despite being a predominant pocket passer. It didn’t take Purdy all four quarters to rack up his four touchdowns either, as the game was secured well before the final whistle.

It’s time to start discussing Brock Purdy as a true MVP candidate.

Mr. Irrelevant is officially relevant.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

The Eagles haven’t been winning in dominant fashion like they did last year, but they’ve still been winning. Regardless, it’s not like Philadelphia hasn’t been a great team.  The Eagles are one of the two undefeated teams remaining and have compiled a 19-3 regular season record since the start of last year. Through five games, they’re averaging 28.8 points per game and rushing for 4.6 yards per carry while holding opponents under 309 total yards per game. Any loose ends they have will need to be tightened up this week, considering their schedule starts to get pretty brutal afterward.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

It’s hard to stop speed, and the Dolphins — perhaps more than any other team has ever been — are fast. Rookie running back De’Von Achane has added another layer of terror onto this team, as he now leads the AFC with 460 rushing yards while averaging a whopping 12.1 yards per carry. That’s explosive, but Achane is now set to miss multiple weeks with a knee injury. That’s a loss that will hurt for Miami, but Mostert is capable of making explosive plays of his own.

Tyreek Hill, meanwhile, is on pace for 2,213 receiving yards, which is 249 yards more than Calvin Johnson's current single-season NFL record (1,964).

As they dismantled the Giants in Week 5, the Dolphins set an NFL record for most yards in a season’s first five games. They are averaging 111 more yards per game than any team in the league.

“Mission accomplished,” head coach Mike McDaniel said after the game. “Our whole goal this entire off-season was statistical output through five games.”

As his sarcasm suggests, Miami’s goal isn’t to maximize statistical output. The goal is to win games in December, in January, and hopefully one big one in February. That’s going to take a lot more than just speed to accomplish. After all, this race isn’t a 40-yard dash, it’s a marathon.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

Andy Reid, who recently passed Tom Landry in regular season wins, deserves a lot of credit for adapting to his personnel. This Chiefs team is not the same as the 2018-2020 teams that were led by high-flying offenses. That’s not a bad thing. While it may not be as exciting to watch, a well-balanced team is usually a better recipe for success than relying too heavily on one phase of the game.

While Kansas City only managed 334 total yards against a struggling Vikings defense, the team made enough significant plays on both sides of the ball when it mattered. The Chiefs have the talent, experience, and stability to compete with any NFL team in the postseason — every bump along the way can just be used as a learning experience.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

Last week, Detroit’s rookie cornerback Jerry Jacobs became the first cornerback in franchise history to tally two interceptions in Green Bay since 1968. Now, Aiden Hutchinson’s one-handed interception has brought him accolades of his own. Hutchinson’s four career interceptions are an NFL record for defensive linemen in the first two seasons of their career. He’s a star in the making, and Jacksonville will regret passing him up in last year’s draft.

The Lions continue to prove that they can win games in a multitude of ways, whether it’s through the air with Amon-Ra St. Brown, on the ground with David Montgomery, or with momentum-shifting plays on defense.

Detroit has lost just three games in the last 11 months, and they’ve won their last three games by double-digit margins. Even better, their defense is allowing just 293 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. That’s good enough to keep every game close.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 13-4

This was a tough loss for Buffalo. In a tight race for the division, the Bills can’t afford to fall behind the speedy Dolphins. Even worse, just a week after losing All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White to an Achilles tear, linebacker Matt Milano suffered a potential season-ending leg injury of his own. In the end, that could be a bigger loss for Buffalo than the one handed to them by Jacksonville.

On a positive note, the Bills will host the hapless Giants at home next week. Expect another blowout that ends in Buffalo’s favor.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5

Ten months ago, the Dallas Cowboys were bounced out of the playoffs by San Francisco for the second consecutive season. This was supposed to be a statement game for Dallas. Owner Jerry Jones said this game could be a “season-builder” and felt like it was “for all the marbles.”

It was an opportunity for revenge against an old nemesis and redemption for quarterback Dak Prescott, who threw for just 206 yards and two interceptions in last season’s 19-12 postseason loss.

Somehow, Prescott played even worse on Sunday night, completing just 14 of 23 passes for 153 yards. He threw three interceptions as the Cowboys were humiliated by the San Francisco 49ers, 42-10.

As for their red zone woes? Dallas didn’t even make it there. Three of their first four drives ended with a three-and-out. The offense’s lone touchdown came on an 11-play, 78-yard drive in the second quarter. Only one other drive that Prescott led included a first down. His final three drives all culminated with interceptions that appeared to be getting progressively worse.

The far-from-generational defense didn’t fare any better. After giving up just 41 total points in their first four games, Dallas surrendered 42 points to the 49ers.

Once again, the Cowboys are left with more questions than answers.

The Cowboys face scorned offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and the Chargers in prime time this Monday, and Moore will be looking for some revenge and redemption of his own.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

The Seahawks needed this early bye week considering the onslaught on injuries that have ravaged this roster. Hopefully Seattle can come back healthy next week, but they’ve still already proven that last season wasn’t a fluke. Geno Smith has been efficient, and the offense has averaged 28 points per game. Even better, last season’s atrocious run defense that allowed 4.9 yards per carry has tightened up and allowed just 3.2 yards per carry. They need to keep it going — they’ll need to string together flawless performances every week to have any chance of winning their division. 

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

Travis Etienne erupted with 184 yards and two touchdowns on 30 touches. It’s no coincidence that this also happened to be the best scoring output of their last four games. The Jaguars have relied too heavily on Trevor Lawrence, and a strong running game could really help diversify this offense attack. The offense still needs to find consistency and stop fumbling, and Trevor Lawrence needs to take less sacks. Nevertheless, beating Buffalo is impressive, even if Jacksonville had the added benefit of already being in London for the past week.

Preseason Record Prediction: 11-6
Week 5 Record Prediction: 12-5

Two weeks ago, Baltimore had an ugly loss against the Indianapolis Colts that was preventable and avoidable. It was almost a miracle that they managed to lose the game, considering the opportunities they had to win it. They followed that game with a dominant performance against the Browns. In that game, the offense was efficient, clean, and organized. Now, they displayed the same sloppy play they showed against the Colts. 

The Ravens had a chance to beat all three of their division rivals on the road within the first five weeks of the season — a feat that would have cleared a path for the AFC North title. Instead, they handed the game to Pittsburgh, and now this division is a mess. The Ravens have lost six of their last seven games against the Steelers by a combined 22 points (3.6 points per game).

This team needs to find discipline and consistency before the Bengals and Steelers do.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 11-6

Two consecutive wins before the bye week must have made the time off much more enjoyable for the Chargers, but the season gets grueling from here on out. The Chargers will now have to play -3 consecutive games and — if they’re lucky — any postseason games that come after. Barely beating the Raiders and Vikings doesn’t help inspire confidence in the Chargers chances against the much better teams they’ll face in the coming weeks. Up next, however, is a chance for Kellen Moore to get revenge on the Cowboys. He’s now had an extra week to scheme up a game plan, so it’ll be interesting to see what he’s come up with and how hard his players are willing to play for him.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

The Buccaneers have played much better than anyone expected them to and may just be the biggest surprise of the season. Coming out of their bye week, they now have a chance to win the NFC South for the third consecutive season.

Preseason Record Prediction: 12-5
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

That was the Cincinnati offense everyone has been waiting to see. Joe Burrow finally played more like himself, navigating the pocket and even scrambling for a nice 10-yard gain. Even better, he fed star receiver Ja’Marr Chase with 19 targets. Chase reeled in 15 catches for 192 yards and three touchdowns. The defense picked up three sacks and two interceptions along the way, despite still having issues with tackling and discipline against the run. It may not be too late to turn this season around, especially if the Bengals can limit the Seahawks’ ground game this upcoming Sunday.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

New England has some serious problems, but it’s never easy to go into Gillette Stadium and come out with a win. The Saints deserve credit for their performance. While the defense is still the strength of this team, the return of Alvin Kamara has added some much-needed juice to the offensive attack. Derek Carr was able to stay upright and healthy, and the Saints cruised to an easy win on the road.

Preseason Record Prediction: 8-9
Week 5 Record Prediction: 10-7

Not having Aaron Jones certainly hurt, but A.J. Dillon still had his best game of the season with 20 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown. Still, Green Bay’s offense left a lot of plays on the field.

Jordan Love has a tendency to lose focus when his first read isn’t open, often jumping to different reads instead of following the progression. There were also a few details he missed that a savvy veteran quarterback would’ve picked up on, whether it was about the tempo of the game, the defense’s tricks, or even ball placement. Christian Watson didn’t help, especially on the last end zone throw, where he made little effort to fight back to the ball.

Ultimately, this is a young team that still needs to build chemistry and learn lessons. When every game they play involves fourth-quarter comebacks or last-second scores, they’ll inevitably lose some games along the way. Green Bay needs to develop a stronger offensive identity to grab an early lead and keep it. That’s the best way to help their young players.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

Somehow, as always, Mike Tomlin has the Steelers above .500 wins. He’s done that in spite of their -31 point differential and their inability to produce any sort of consistent offense. Pittsburgh finds a way to win games, and TJ Watt is putting together a campaign worthy of Defensive Player of the Year. They have a bye week now, and despite being atop the AFC North, Mike Tomlin is talking about making big changes. They’ll need them if they want to maintain their division lead.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

Deshaun Watson was sidelined with a right shoulder injury in Cleveland’s ugly Week 4 loss. The good news is that the Browns had a Week 5 bye week to allow Watson to heal. The bad news is that San Francisco will be coming to town on Sunday, and this team has too many unanswered questions right now. The offense lacks consistency, the offensive line has been concerning, and the defense has been unable to force enough turnovers.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

After two consecutive losses, Atlanta managed to pull out a win against the Houston Texans with a 10-play, 56-yard drive that ended in a game-winning field goal. It was an impressive and methodical drive for Ridder and receiver Drake London. 

While Desmond Ridder proved he can pull together a last-second comeback win, this team still doesn’t have enough to make any meaningful postseason run. They could still win the division if they handle their divisional opponents, though: the NFC South is under reconstruction.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

The Rams were a fun underdog team to root for in the first two weeks of the season, but they’ve disappointed since then. Although they won an overtime game on the road and kept their three losses competitive, it’s clear that Los Angeles is not a complete team. The return of Cooper Kupp should certainly help this offense, and his impact was felt immediately, as he reeled in 8 catches for 118 yards. It’s clear that Kupp’s return won’t slow down Puka Nacua either, as he brought in 7 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

The Colts have been more competitive than expected this year, with Anthony Richardson able to put enough points on the board to lead the team to 2nd place in the AFC South with a 3-2 record. After last week’s 23-29 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Colts landed a divisional win against the Tennessee Titans. 

Zack Moss was the primary storyline, outshining Jonathan Taylor’s long-awaited return with a career-best 165 rushing yards. The rushers were able to support the passing game after Anthony Richardson exited with a shoulder injury, allowing Gardner Minshew to step into the starting role. 

Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson has now been injured in four of his five career games. This time, the injury will force him to miss time. Richardson has a lot of developing to do, but he’s going to need to be able to stay on the field to develop at all. Hopefully he can develop as a passer and take fewer hits as a runner as his career moves along.

Time will tell where the Colts are headed from here and whether or not they can sustain success with their current roster. But in the absence of one player, the Colts have proven that they can supplement their game with a variety of capable players.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

It’s been a difficult season for the Titans, who have competed to control the AFC South power vacuum in the past few seasons. This year, they’re 3-2 through Week 5 after a disappointing loss to the Colts. 

Derrick Henry has been a central factor in their dominance, and in the team’s first loss to the Colts through six meetings, Henry has usually led the team on a path to victory: he’s had seven 100-yard games over 14 meetings with his familiar foe. It was a rare disappointment for Henry as he struggled on 13 rushes for 43 yards, including a goal-line attempt that he’d expect to convert “99 times out of 100.”

But not this time.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 9-8

The Vikings can’t stop getting in their own way. Another early turnover — this time from tight end Josh Oliver — led to another early deficit. A hamstring injury to Justin Jefferson and heavy pressure from the Chiefs defensive line stalled Minnesota’s attempts for last-second heroics. 

Last season, Minnesota found a way to win almost every close game they played. Now that their luck has run out, that statistic is regressing to the mean. All four of the Vikings losses have come in one-score games.

To make matters worse, Jefferson is on IR for the next few weeks due to his aforementioned injury, which means the Vikings will likely continue to trend downward through October.

Preseason Record Prediction: 4-13
Week 5 Record Prediction: 6-11

The Texans played a great game against the Falcons. They won the turnover battle and committed fewer penalties, and quarterback C.J. Stroud continued his impressive rookie campaign with a touchdown drive with less than two minutes left on the clock. Stroud now has an NFL-record 186 consecutive passes without an interception and hasn’t been sacked since Week 2.

The Texans ultimately gave up a game-winning drive to the Falcons, but this team has still been impressive considering where they were last year.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 8-9

Nothing has gone right for the Patriots this year. Rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez won Defensive Rookie of the Month honors, then was sidelined with a torn labrum. Coupled with the loss of star pass rusher Matthew Judon, the defense has been left toothless.

The offensive line — which has been rotating different starters almost every week — has failed to provide adequate protection or open any holes in the run game. Without a rushing attack that defenses have to respect, the play-action game is rendered useless. Even if the offensive line managed to provide a clean pocket, receivers haven’t been able to gain any separation. Entering Week 5, New England’s receivers averaged the least amount of separation on targets (3.1 yards), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. 

On top of everything, quarterback Mac Jones has lost trust in his protection, leading to awful decision-making. Since becoming the Patriots’ starter, Jones has six interceptions returned for a touchdown, which ties Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford for most in the league during that timespan. 

Add all of that together and you end up with the two worst losses of Bill Belichick’s career in back-to-back weeks.

Regardless, the talk of firing Bill Belichick is nearly blasphemous. He is still the greatest head coach in the history of the NFL.

Preseason Record Prediction: 9-8
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13

This Jets team was obviously motivated to win this game for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, whose disastrous 2022 stint with the Broncos was summed up by Denver’s new head coach as “the worst coaching job in NFL history.”

Running back Breece Hall, now fully recovered from the ACL injury that derailed his rookie season, cut through Denver’s defense. Hall finished the game with 22 carries for 177 rushing yards and a touchdown while tacking on three catches for 17 yards.

The defense played with passion and came up with a game-clinching turnover in the fourth quarter.

This offense will still struggle, especially against better teams, but this was a nice moment during an otherwise grim season.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

The Commanders kicked off the season with two narrow wins over the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos, but it’s been a downhill battle ever since. This week, the Commanders gave the bottom-ranked Bears their first win of the year in a 40-20 rout at home. 

What’s more condemning than their record is that the performance was bad enough to garner criticism from Magic Johnson, the Lakers legend who is a minority owner of the franchise. Despite how poorly they’ve done all year, this was the game that Magic finally decided to condemn the players’ lack of “intensity or fire.”

It’s bad enough to lose to the Bears, but it’s even worse to lose favor with Magic. It’s (not) Showtime.

Preseason Record Prediction: 7-10
Week 5 Record Prediction: 4-13

Jakobi Meyers ended a drought: the Raiders were the only team in the NFL without a touchdown in the second or third quarter. While Garoppolo has had his worst interception rate over a three-game period, this team finally closed out a game. The defense, led by star pass rusher Maxx Crosby, made plays to stop the Packers from pulling off another late-game victory.

Preseason Record Prediction: 10-7
Week 5 Record Prediction: 7-10

Head coach Sean Payton, who was hired as Nathaniel Hackett's replacement with the Broncos, turned heads during training camp when he ripped his predecessor. In an interview with USA Today, Payton called Hackett's stint with the team "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL" and said his approach with the Broncos would be "the opposite" of "everything I heard about last season."

Since then, the Broncos allowed a historic 70 points to the Miami Dolphins, allowed Justin Fields to spread the ball around confidently, and lost to Hackett’s Jets at home. It’s been a humiliating start for Payton, and his team did him no favors against a motivated Jets team.

Payton is still one of the best coaches in the league, and he’s still capable of fixing this team. Still, Denver’s problems run a lot deeper than coaching, and they’ll take a lot more than one season to remedy.

Preseason Record Prediction: 3-14
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

For the past four weeks, playing the Bengals has mostly ended in good results. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the Bengals picked this week to figure things out.

Joshua Dobbs had a rough day, and the defense couldn’t find any answers for the Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connection. Not having Budda Baker or Jalen Thompson definitely didn’t help, and neither did the loss of James Conner, who is expected to miss multiple games with a knee injury.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14

The Bears showed signs of life on Sunday, resurrecting to hang 40 points on their beleaguered opponents, the Washington Commanders. 

Justin Fields finally pulled together a performance worthy of a win, connecting with DJ Moore for eight receptions, 230 yards and three touchdowns. 

It’s great to see Moore help this offense put together a great performance, but the rest of the offense needs to step up their game as well. It’s going to take a lot more than this game for the Bears to climb out of their cave and shake off their usual hibernating slumber.

Preseason Record Prediction: 6-11
Week 5 Record Prediction: 5-12

Entering Week 5, Daniel Jones had pressured on 46 percent of his drop-backs. He was sacked on 14.4 percent of those drop-backs — by far the worst rate of his career.

A week after taking ten sacks and turning the ball over three times, Daniel Jones hoped for better results.

Instead, he got more of the same. Jones suffered a neck injury in the fourth quarter while taking his sixth sack of the afternoon. He has now taken 50 quarterback hits and 28 sacks while facing 82 pressures over 5 games. Outside of their 31-28 win against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, the Giants offense has averaged just 7.75 points per game.

Preseason Record Prediction: 5-12
Week 5 Record Prediction: 3-14

The Panthers shipped away Christian McCaffrey, who now has a touchdown in 14 consecutive games. Then, they traded away DJ Moore, who had a monstrous 230-yard, three-touchdown game on Sunday. 

Now, the Panthers have no offense left for Bryce Young to work with, and that is why they’re the NFL’s only winless team through five games. It’s looking like the Bears will enjoy the rights to Carolina’s first overall selection in the 2024 NFL draft.