The Masters dark horse picks 2024: 5 sleepers who could win the Green Jacket

So much of the talk coming into The Masters 2024 is about the favorites... and rightfully so. Scottie Scheffler has been the best player in the world, Rory McIlroy is looking for his first win at Augusta National and to complete the career grand slam with that, Jon Rahm is the defending champion, and the narratives go on. But then we have the sleepers, always lurking with the chance to surprise and take the Green Jacket from one of these storyline favorites.

Sleepers, however, haven't fared all that well at The Masters, at least in terms of winning, lately. Since 2019, Hideki Matsuyama had the longest odds of any of the five winners and is the only champion who was under 20/1 pre-tournament at 46/1. That could mean that this is a favorite's tournament, but it could also mean that we're due for a dark horse to win.

But the question, as always, is which sleepers and dark horse picks are the right ones? That's what we're here to try and figure out. So let's unpack our best sleeper picks for The Masters in 2024, all of which will be considered "longshots" in our weekly expert picks.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. All sleeper picks are for 0.1 units for our weekly picks. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

5. Phil Mickelson (+27000, FD) finished T2 at The Masters last year, why not another run?

Just last year, Phil Mickelson came into The Masters in awful form, finishing outside the Top 25 in the prior LIV Golf tournaments, missing the cut at the Saudi International, and just simply looking like the magic of Lefty was lost. So, naturally, he showed up at Augusta National and finished T2, just like we all thought... other than everyone who had completely written him off.

Mickelson is one of the best historical players at The Masters that we have. He's obviously a past winner (three times) but, even as he's aged, he's only missed the cut once since 2015, which came in 2016. His creativity and short game, along with being a lefty -- an advantage at Augusta National -- allow him to continue competing at the top level.

Now, there's a reason that Mickelson is 270/1. The form hasn't been there this year on LIV Golf either. But we saw last year that can potentially be thrown out the window for this tournament specifically. So it would then be foolish to not have him mentioned at those long of odds as a possible sleeper to add a fourth Green Jacket to his collection.

4. Russell Henley (+6500, FD) is a trendy sleeper to win The Masters

The fact that Russell Henley opened Masters week at about 75/1 in some places and is now at 65/1 or 60/1 almost unanimously tells you everything about how he's trending coming into this week. And it's hard not to like the profile that he's put together coming into the first major championship of the 2024 season.

Henley has been enjoying one of his best putting years in quite some time. What was curious earlier in the year, however, was that his approach play -- normally the strength of his game -- wasn't at the level we are used to seeing. That changed last week, though, when he gained 7.71 strokes on approach at the Valero Texas Open to finish fourth outright.

Last year at The Masters, Henley continued his improvement at this tournament with a T4 finish at The Masters. He's played well here consistently but seems like he's leveling up and, with the trend that he showed at Valero a week ago, he could be quite live to contend for the title this week.

3. Chris Kirk (+17500) has more juice at The Masters than you think

The one thing that should worry you about Chris Kirk this week would be that his approach play, also normally the strength in his statistical profile, slipped at THE PLAYERS and the Arnold Palmer Invitational before that, his last two starts coming into the week. But even then, he's still gaining strokes on approach for 2024 and those are two of the most volatile statistical weeks on the PGA Tour calendar.

But the positives are there for him. He's gained strokes with the driver ion every tournament so far in 2024 and his around-the-green play has been top-notch, even if inconsistent, with large gains in that capacity, even when he was struggling relatively on approach.

Kirk finished T23 at The Masters and that makes complete sense with his ball-strikng profile and DNA historically. Though you'd like the form to be a bit better, he won the first signature event of 2024 at The Sentry this season, proving he's cut out for the big-boy fields. And at 175/1, the value is there for a highly talented player who is capable of big-game hunting.

2. Sergio Garcia (+12000, FD) is a Masters winner with dark horse potential

Sergio Garcia hasn't won yet on LIV Golf this year, but he has consistently been in the mix. Most recently, he lost in a playoff last week in Miami, which was played at Doral. That means quite a bit for this week in my eyes as that's a true championship-level venue and he played that well. More importantly, it's largely been with his ball-striking.

In the prime of the Spaniard, his ball-striking was the calling card that you wanted to see when he was trending toward success. But the biggest revelation came last week at Miami as he gained strokes putting after putting a new flat-stick in the bag.

Putting has always been the worry for Garcia, a past champion at The Masters. He's struggled in recent years at Augusta National, but the changes he's made and the way he's been playing with two runner-up finishes this year on LIV Golf does make you wonder if he's about to be a guy who pops up this week.

1. Si Woo Kim (+8000) is my favorite sleeper to win The Masters

Few players in the world of golf are as volatile as Si Woo Kim. It feels as if he's equally as likely to win as he is to miss the cut by six strokes. With the way he's played so far in the 2024 season, though, that might no longer be the case because he's raised his ball-striking floor so unbelievably substantially.

Over the last 12 rounds for all competitors at The Masters this year, Kim ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Now, the putter has definitely been volatile, including one of the worst putting weeks you'll ever see at THE PLAYERS. But that is still an outlier and, overall, he's been fine with the flat stick -- even if that has caused him trouble at Augusta in the past.

Even with that, Kim has finished T12 here in the past three years and it's very easy to argue based on the stats that he's leveled up thus far in the 2024 season. With that and at an 80/1 number, he's well worth a sprinkle as he's played well enough to win already this year and could very well finally get that victory in major championship fashion.