THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

THE PLAYERS Championship is the flagship event on the PGA Tour and everything about the tournament backs that up. Whether you want to talk about the atmosphere around TPC Sawgrass, the iconic shots like on the 17th hole and the island green, or the stellar list of winners at this tournament, it all tracks as a can't-miss week in golf. But THE PLAYERS Championship picks can sometimes be a bit tricky.

Frankly, course history at TPC Sawgrass can be somewhat sporadic. Winners have finished outside the Top 50 immediately after, and vice versa. But what always stands out at THE PLAYERS Championship is the ball striking, smart and positional shot-making (especially off of the tee) and being deft around the greens. Of course, defending champion Scottie Scheffler, fresh off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is a heavy favorite, but the value is elsewhere.

We flirted with a quite good week at the API, but ultimately missed out with just one Top 20 best bet hitting. Things are getting in better shape, though, and we're going to try and clean up with our THE PLAYERS Championship expert picks and best bets for the week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through API: 8-52-0, -9.63 Units (1-19 on outrights and longshots | -1.0 units at API) | One and Done Total for 2024: $1,517,962 (Jordan Spieth at API, $123,500)

PGA Tour expert picks for THE PLAYERS Championship: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Hideki Matsuyama (+300)

Hideki Matsuyama is playing like one of the best in the world of late, including his late surge to win The Genesis. He's gaining 1.59 strokes tee-to-green over his last eight rounds -- a win and a Top 12 last week at the API -- but he's also gaining 1.28 strokes with his short game over those two finishes too. Matsuyama has also played well at THE PLAYERS, registering two Top 10 finishes in his last three completed tournaments while also being the first round leader in 2020 when the tournament was canceled thereafter. His form and history make me love these Top 10 odds.

Outright Winner pick for THE PLAYERS Championship (0.5 Units): Will Zalatoris (+3300)

Will Zalatoris is back and he's going to win this week, or at least that's my pick. Zalatoris has struggled a bit by his standards at THE PLAYERS with a best finish of T21 in three starts. In the last two signature events, though, he was T2 at The Genesis and T4 at API. He's gaining more than 1.70 strokes tee-to-green in his last 16 rounds, and has gained with the long putter in the bag now as well. He's playing like one of the best in the world and, with his driving accuracy also locked in right now, I love for him to show up again in a big-name field and this time get the victory.

One and Done pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Scottie Scheffler

There's no world wherein I feel good betting Scottie Scheffler at +550 to win this week. Those odds are just too short -- but they are deserved. With the biggest purse on the PGA Tour this week, we have to pull out a heavy-hitter for One and Done and Scheffler checks all the boxes from a ball striking aspect, but may have unlocked something more with the putter.

THE PLAYERS Championship picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Andrew Novak to finish Top 20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+500)

We've got to start putting some respect on Andrew Novak. At Phoenix, Mexico and the Cognizant, he went T8, T8 and T9. The guy is just playing great golf and the numbers back it up. He's gaining 1.23 strokes ball striking over his last 16 rounds and has also been positive around the green and with the putter too. He seems to be a great fit with accurate driving and strong approach play, even after missing the cut here a year ago. It's a bit of a longer-shot play, but his form says he's worth this look.

Keith Mitchell to finish Top 20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+300)

Don't sleep on Cashmere Keith Mitchell this week. He's finished Top 20 in each of his last three starts and has a Top 20 in one of his last two starts at THE PLAYERS. Furthermore, his other finish was a decent-enough T35. Mitchell's ball striking has been stellar of late, gaining 1.87 strokes there over his last 12 rounds. His short game remains inconsistent, but it's been passable if not sub-average. Still, at a place that rewards shot-making and ball striking like TPC Sawgrass, Mitchell cracking the Top 20 seems very much in the realm of possibilities.

Tom Hoge to finish Top 20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+260)

Our one bet that hit last week and we're running it back this time around. The putter remains the bugaboo for Tom Hoge, but the rest of his game has been right where you want it coming to TPC Sawgrass, a place where he's played extremely well. Hoge finished Top 3 at THE PLAYERS last year and hasn't finished worse than T33 in his last four starts here. He's gaining a ridiculous 1.46 strokes on approach over his last 16 rounds, in addition to driving the ball accurately. He's being undervalued, but I'm taking a swing on him this week.

Longshot Pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship (0.1 Units): Doug Ghim (+15000)

Doug Ghim missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last year, but was T6 the year prior. More importantly, though, his form has been excellent as of late, gaining 1.30 strokes with his ball striking to go along with 0.48 strokes gained with the putter. He also hasn't finished worse than T16 over his last four starts. I love his fit and the way he's playing, so 150/1 is looking tasty as a flier to take.