3 things fueling the Denver Broncos this season

Hope springs eternal in the NFL offseason. Whether you have Patrick Mahomes or the No. 1 pick in the draft, every fanbase finds a reason to believe by the time Week 1 rolls around, no matter how last season ended.

The Denver Broncos improved by three wins in 2023, but despite performing better as a team in Sean Payton's first year in charge, the season ended on a sour note. Payton and much-maligned quarterback Russell Wilson had a very public split towards the end of the year, and the team's late playoff push was short-circuited when Wilson was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham.

If 2023 represented the end of the massively disappointing Wilson era, 2024 is most definitely the start of a new chapter. Russ is gone to Pittsburgh, and in his place is rookie QB Bo Nix out of Oregon. The rest of the roster looks very different as well, with Zach Wilson joining Nix in the quarterback room, Jerry Jeudy gone to Cleveland, and All-Pro safety Justin Simmons still unsigned.

Could the Broncos surprise some people this year? They're certainly flying under the radar, but people in the organization have reason to be quietly confident. Here are three reasons why it could be a sneaky good season in Mile High.

Everyone around the league expects the Broncos to be in rebuilding mode

There's no better fuel for a team than disrespect, and around the league, few people think the Broncos are going to be very good. That feeling is echoed in the betting markets, where only the Patriots have a lower over/under win total according to oddsmakers.

The Broncos weren't a playoff team last year, but they were no slouch, finishing a respectable 8-9. So why does Vegas have their over/under at 5.5? A lot has to do with optics. Russell Wilson is a big name. Jerry Jeudy is a big name. Justin Simmons is a big name. They're all gone.

Big names don't win ballgames, especially when they don't live up to their reputation. Wilson's ineptitude has led many to characterize the trade that sent him from Seattle to Denver as one of the most lopsided ever. Zach Wilson has become a punching bag during his time with the Jets, but it's not inconceivable that he could experience a career renaissance now that he's out of the New York spotlight. We'll get into Bo Nix later, but there's reason for optimism about him, as well. Regardless of who wins the starting quarterback job, they can't be as disastrous as Russ was.

Like Wilson, Jeudy is another player whose reputation exceeds his production. Most fans would be shocked to learn that he's never once reached 1,000 yards receiving in a season, and his career-high in receptions is only 67. Replacing him with the dependable Josh Reynolds, while also giving second-year speedster Marvin Mims Jr. more room to shine, can only be a good thing.

Simmons has been one of the premier safeties in the league, making Second Team All-Pro four out of the last five years. The fact that he remains unsigned is telling though, and his replacement, Brandon Jones (formerly of the Dolphins), actually had a higher PFF grade last year.

The Broncos don't have nearly the star power they had a year ago, but in terms of on-field production, they may have improved. Opposing teams that expect to get an easy win are in for a rude awakening.

Patrick Surtain II is going to be motivated to put up a monster year

Patrick Surtain II is one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL, which is why it was stupefying to hear his name being thrown into so many trade rumors this offseason. It's no surprise that other teams around the league would covet a player of Surtain's abilities, but even if the Broncos are rebuilding, wouldn't you think they'd want a 24-year-old lockdown corner to build their defense around?

The Broncos put those trade rumors to rest, at least for now, when they picked up Surtain's fifth-year option just days before the draft. This means he'll now remain in Denver through the 2025 season, and it gives the Broncos more time to negotiate a long-term contract with a player that should be a franchise cornerstone.

Cornerback has become a lucrative position. Just in this offseason alone, Tyson Campbell, L'Jarius Sneed, and Jaylon Johnson have signed for more than $108 million guaranteed, but Surtain could completely reset the market with a big year. What do you get when you give one of the game's best young coverage guys extra motivation by including him in trade rumors with the possibility of a life-changing contract coming up? The rest of the NFL is about to find out.

Bo Nix and Sean Payton have something to prove

There are no two more important positions on an NFL team than head coach and quarterback. Look at all the top teams, and they all have a top-notch twosome leading the way. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. John Harbaugh and LamarJackson. Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy (yes, Purdy haters, the man is really good. Deal with it). Nobody is ready to put Sean Payton and Bo Nix in that same category.

On the surface, those doubts make sense. Payton didn't exactly inspire confidence in his first head coaching job since leaving the New Orleans Saints after 15 seasons. He was combative and surly off the field, with the strange decision to belittle former Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett dominating the headlines before Payton had even coached a preseason game. Between the lines, his offensive philosophy never meshed with Wilson's propensity for prolonging plays, which led to Denver finishing 20th in points per game.

This was a historically quarterback-heavy draft, with six QBs being taken in the first round for the first time ever. Unlike other teams that chose to draft their field general of the future, though, Payton and the Broncos were pilloried for "reaching" on Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick.

Many teams had a second-round grade on Nix, but it's been clear for months that Payton got his guy. The Oregon quarterback finished third in Heisman Trophy voting after setting the record for completion percentage, and it's not difficult to see that his talents are a perfect match for Payton's system. Make a read, get the ball out, keep the chains moving. Just like Drew Brees used to do.

Nix is 24 years old, which is part of why many around the league disliked his draft position, but his relative seniority could be a benefit to him as he acclimates to life in the NFL. Unlike other rookies that were drafted as raw projects to develop within the next few years, Nix could hit the ground running due to having started a whopping 61 games already in college.

The Broncos have invested heavily in their offensive line, which will put Nix in a much better position than most rookie quarterbacks find themselves in.

Both Payton and Nix have something to prove this year, and the smart money says that they'll outperform expectations.