Tigers hot streak is further proof that it’s time to cut bait with Javier Baez

The Detroit Tigers made their trade deadline stance abundantly clear by shipping away key players like Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Carson Kelly, and Andrew Chafin. They were sellers, and nobody really batted an eye.

On deadline day, Detroit was 52-56 sitting 6.5 games back of a postseason spot and being given slim 2.8 percent odds to make the postseason according to FanGraphs. They had a puncher's chance to get in for the first time since 2014, but not a realistic one. Or so we thought.

Despite those trades, the Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball since the trade deadline and have especially played well lately. They've won four in a row and nine of their last 11 including a series sweep in Kansas City against a Royals team that they're competing with for one of the three Wild Card spots in the AL.

With their sweep in Kansas City, the Tigers are now 0.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the AL. They have a tough series against the Baltimore Orioles looming, but an easy finish against the Chicago White Sox. Pulling this thing off is absolutely realistic, especially with how the Minnesota Twins have been playing.

What one can't help but notice is that Detroit has been red hot since August 23, the day that the Tigers placed Javier Baez on the IL. They've gone 17-7 in that span, winning the hearts of baseball fans everywhere. Despite playing every day, Baez was providing the team next to nothing. This run has shown that they can win without him, and should strongly consider cutting bait.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

It's time for the Tigers to admit defeat and cut bait with Javier Baez

Let me preface this by saying the chances that the Tigers actually do release Baez are slim to none. With the 31-year-old set to miss the remainder of the 2024 campaign whether Detroit makes it to the postseason or not, he has now wrapped up three years of a six-year deal worth $140 million that he signed ahead of the 2022 campaign. The Tigers owe him an average of $24.3 million annually through the 2027 season. Chances are, they won't want to pay him to wear another uniform - at least not yet.

With that being said, though, if there ever was a time to cut bait with Baez, it'd be this offseason, once the Tigers proved that they do not need him at all and are better off giving playing time to just about anyone else.

Since signing the deal to join the Tigers, Baez has statistically been one of the worst players in all of baseball. His 69 WRC+ since the start of 2022 is tied for the second-worst mark among qualified players. Since the start of 2023, his 0.0 fWAR is tied for ninth among players with at least 800 plate appearances according to FanGraphs. His defense has been solid, to his credit, but his bat has been utterly useless, and that's the main reason he got all of that money in the first place.

The worst thing about Baez is that his Tigers tenure is only getting worse. He had a rough first season, but at least hit 17 home runs and had a 91 OPS+, only nine points below the league average of 100. He had a dreadful 2022 campaign and was performing even worse this season before his season-ending injury.

Baez ended the 2024 season slashing .184/.221/.294 with six home runs and 37 RBI. His .516 OPS was over 100 points lower than Carlos Zambrano's career OPS of .636. For those who don't know, Zambrano was a pitcher.

It's not as if his replacement, Trey Sweeney, has lit the world on fire since debuting, but he has a .685 OPS in his 27 games played, nearly 200 points higher than Baez's mark for the full season. His 0.5 fWAR is higher than Baez's mark in the last two seasons combined. Sweeney has been above replacement level as a player, and Baez has been very below that soft benchmark.

Money cannot be the reason why Baez remains in Detroit. It's a sunk cost at this point. The Tigers lose no money by releasing him and gain nothing by playing him. At the very least Sweeney is younger, cheaper, and likely better. If they won't spend on a bigger upgrade over the offseason, rolling with Sweeney or literally anyone other than Baez feels like the right decision.

It's unfortunate how Baez's tenure in Detroit has gone, but it's been time for a change. The Tigers proving that they can win without him should be the final straw before a move is made. Tigers fans do not need to watch Baez flail at a single other outside slider for their team ever again.