Valero Texas Open DraftKings picks 2024: Best PGA DFS golf lineup
Put on your boots, it's Valero Texas Open week. Of course, that also means it's the last stop on the PGA Tour before we get to The Masters, but that's to our benefit as we tackle the PGA DFS slate this week with some great players in this field trying to get some reps in before Augusta.
This is a tough test at TPC San Antonio. Approach play, as it often is, is king to success at this course. But the Valero Texas Open also demands precise driving with less emphasis than normal on distance, and a strong short game with the ability to scramble. That creates a lot of value an opportunity when you scroll through the DraftKings PGA DFS slate.
So let's get into this with our top plays and fades for the 2024 Valero Texas Open before we build a lineup that fits what we're looking for.
Valero Texas Open DraftKings picks for PGA DFS lineups: Top Plays
10K Range: Ludvig Åberg ($10,500) - Because he hasn't won since the RSM Classic, people might be thinking that Ludvig Åberg's first full season on the PGA Tour has been lackluster. That couldn't be further from the truth. The young Swede, who is returning to Texas where he played his collegiate golf, hasn't finished worse than T25 since the Sony Open in January, including a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach and solo eighth at THE PLAYERS. He's Top 15 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Approach over the last 20 rounds. He's gaining short game strokes too. Oh, and he's a great fit for TPC San Antonio. Give me all of this. Also Consider: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600)
9K Range: Byeong Hun An ($9,000) - There's going to be a lot of attention on Corey Conners in this range, but Benny An should get similar looks as well. He may not have two wins at TPC San Antonio, but he does have two Top 7 finishes in his last three starts here. Outside of a disaster at THE PLAYERS, he's been stellar this year and a great recipe for success at this venue with his driving ability and penchant to spike on approach. I worry about win equity, but overall like the play. Also Consider: Max Homa ($9,900), Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,700), Corey Conners ($9,400)
8K Range: Alex Noren ($8,700) - Arguably my favorite player in this field, Alex Noren comes in with three straight Top 20 finishes, including two Top 11 showings. He also fits the perfect profile for TPC San Antonio, ranking 13th in this field on approach over the last 12 rounds while also being inside the Top 40 off the tee, around the green, and on the green. Throw in his T15 here a year ago and the fact that he's first and Par-5 scoring and Bogey Avoidance over that span as well, he's in line for a massive week. Also Consider: Billy Horschel ($8,900), Brian Harman ($8,600), Russell Henley ($8,200)
7K Range: Mark Hubbard ($7,000) - I'm actually big on this 7K range for the Valero Texas Open but we're going to the bottom for a great value play. His recent form might show back-to-back T31 finishes, but he's also second in this field in weighted Strokes Gained: Approach over the last eight rounds, third in Par-5 scoring and an accurate driver. With a solid short game on top of that, he could be primed for a great week in San Antonio. Also Consider: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900), Akshay Bhatia ($7,700), Maverick McNealy ($7,400), Lucas Glover ($7,300) Austin Eckroat ($7,200)
6K Range: Ryan Moore ($6,500) - Want to take a guess at the best approach player by strokes gained over the last 20 rounds? If you didn't immediately come up with Ryan Moore, I don't blame you. But it tracks here. While his short game is a concern, he finished solo third here in 2019 and is returning closer to that form. His accuracy off the tee and approach play are the right call for TPC San Antonio. Also Consider: Davis Riley ($6,800), Andrew Novak ($6,500), Matti Schmid ($6,300), Nate Lashley ($6,200), Chandler Phillips ($6,000)
5K Range: Joe Highsmith ($5,800) - Let's be honest, it's a pretty tough scene in the 5K range and I'm definitely not the biggest fan. But Joe Highsmith has some upside with a T21 and T6 in his last three starts. His approach play and driving accuracy have been strong over that span and, should that continue, he could make a cut and show up in the Top 40 or better. Also Consider: Kevin Streelman ($5,600), Grayson Murray ($5,500)
Valero Texas Open DraftKings picks for PGA DFS lineups: Top Fades
10K Range: Collin Morikawa ($10,100) - The plainest way to put this is that Collin Morikawa has not looked like Collin Morikawa of late, at least the version that is a perennial contender and actually would be a good fit at the Valero Texas Open. Beyond just the poor finishes, he's lost strokes putting over the last 20 rounds, but that's exacerbated by being outside the Top 50 in this field on approach over that same time frame. That's his DNA for success and, if he's not ball striking, I'm staying far away.
9K Range: Jordan Spieth ($9,500) - Nothing about Jordan Spieth right now should give anyone confidence. When we see Spieth contending and at his best, he's another player who has his approach play cooking. He's lost 0.40 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds. When you combine that with the results -- missed cuts in his last two at THE PLAYERS and Valspar -- and the never-trusted driver, I don't know how you can be in on Spieth this week.
8K Range: Harris English ($8,300) - It's wholly understandable why you might like Harris English, an accurate driver with a great short game and some good finishes to show him rounding into form this week. What scares we away is the approach numbers. He's lost strokes over his last 20 events and this is a course that demands great approach play to find success. Again, this could bite me, but it's not a play I'd be comfortable having in my lineup.
7K Range: Keith Mitchell ($7,600) - Go ahead and call this a spite play because it probably is, but I'm not hitching my wagon to Keith Mitchell again. I get it -- his ball striking numbers are incredible this year. But his around-the-green and overall short game have been a disaster. Plus, that has contributed to at least one truly catastrophic round in each of his past three tournaments. The upside is there, but it comes with the risk of significant downside as well. I'm choosing mental health and not having investment in Cashmere Keith again this week.
Valero Texas Open 2024: Best DraftKings golf PGA DFS lineup
Player Name | DraftKings Price |
---|---|
Hideki Matsuyama | $10,600 |
Ludvig Åberg | $10,500 |
Alex Noren | $8,700 |
Mark Hubbard | $7,000 |
Ryan Moore | $6,500 |
Matti Schmid | $6,300 |
Total Salary Remaining: | $400 |
Stars and scrubs but I love this lineup. We have our top plays of Åberg, Noren, Hubbard and Moore in this lineup, so let's briefly unpack Hideki Matsuyama and Matti Schmid.
Matsuyama is a real threat to win this week. He leads this field in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 20 rounds and is Top 20 in the all three of those categories. Even better, he's gaining with the putter. He's a perfect fit for this tournament and is in the right form to show it. As for Schmid, he's been a Top 30 machine of late. His approach play is a slight concern, but his elite driving ability combined with good short game should allow him to show up well at this venue again.