Valspar Championship 2024 picks and best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

History was made last week at THE PLAYERS, but the Florida Swing on the 2024 PGA Tour schedule still has more stop -- and that's the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, one of the most underrated difficult venues on Tour and a great test for every player in the field at the 2024 Valspar Championship. And the field is quite good in comparison to previous years, which makes our Valspar Championship picks all the more interesting.

As we see often on the Florida Swing, the Valspar Championship has a clear formula for success. Drive the ball accurately, play extremely well on approach, and have some ability scrambling as well. Going back over the years, that's just the recipe it takes to avoid blow-ups but also climb the leaderboard at the Copperhead Course.

Does that mean we'll be eyeing the favorite this week, Xander Schauffele, with our Valspar Championship picks? Or how about two-time winner Sam Burns or even Justin Thomas? In actuality, none of those favorites made our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the week, one week after hitting a Hideki Matsuyama Top 10, but suffering from some weekend ejections otherwise.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM (a change made to pay out ties in full) unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through THE PLAYERS: 9-56-0, -10.23 Units (1-21 on outrights and longshots | -0.6 units at THE PLAYERS) | One and Done Total for 2024: $6,017,962 (Scottie Scheffler at THE PLAYERS, $4.5 million)

PGA Tour expert picks for the Valspar Championship: Winner, Top 10 and One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Valspar Championship: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+450)

We haven't seen a ton of Christiaan Bezuidenhout at the Valspar with just one start, which resulted in a finish outside the Top 60. But the South African has popped quite a bit this year and it's largely due to what should help him at Innisbrook. He was third in the field last week on Strokes Gained: Approach at THE PLAYERS, which led to a T13 finish. He's a shorter driver but he's regularly accurate and hits solid shots where he can thrive on approach. My one concern is his middling short game, but I love his iron and wedge play too much to not have him as a pick.

Outright Winner pick for the Valspar Championship (0.5 Units): Doug Ghim (+4500, FanDuel)

Our longshot outright pick from last week is now our pick to win the Valspar Championship. But Doug Ghim is playing legitimately like a top-tier golfer on the PGA Tour this year, coming into this event with now five straight Top 16 finishes. Over that span, it's been the exact profile you want to see. He's gaining 0.82 strokes on approach, hitting over 70% of fairways, and showing massive improvement and gaining with his short game. He's also Top 20 this year in proximity on approaches from 175-200 yards, which is vital around the Copperhead Course. I think it's his time and he gets the win here.

One and Done pick for the Valspar Championship: Doug Ghim

Even if Ghim doesn't win, though I still have a ton of confidence in that, I still want to take advantage of what feels like a great marriage of form and fit. That's what we have here with him at the Valspar, so I'm also going to take him in One and Done after a big move last week from taking Scheffler as the winner of the biggest purse on the PGA Tour.

Valspar Championship picks: More best bets for PGA Tour

Brian Harman to finish Top 5 at the Valspar Championship (+450)

At the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS, we saw reigning Open champion Brian Harman finish T12 and T2, respectively. And how he's done it should have you salivating. He's driving the ball short but accurate, which you always love to see, but his approach play has been absurdly good too, gaining 1.83 strokes on approach over his last eight rounds. On top of that, he's a wizard with his short game, which makes it even better. Top 5 is a bit aggressive, but he's another contender to win and I like betting him this way.

Joel Dahmen to finish Top 30 at the Valspar Championship (+200, DraftKings)

We haven't completely seen the best from Joel Dahmen in 2024, but we might've saw what's to come at THE PLAYERS. Dahmen, after a bad first round, went on a heater over the next three days to finish T11. On the week, he gained more than 3.0 strokes tee-to-green, striping it all over the place. That's what we see when Dahmen is about to have a couple of pop weeks, so getting another Florida course that should suit him, I love getting 2/1 on him just to finish inside the Top 30.

Andrew Novak to finish Top 20 at the Valspar Championship (+300)

We bet on Novak last week at THE PLAYERS as he entered with three straight Top 9 finishes. He missed the cut, naturally. But we're still banking on his ability and overall form in a now weaker field to try and are going back to the well. Novak's ball-striking just disappeared last week, which was wild after gaining on approach in 10 of his previous 12 rounds and being a slight gainer with the driver too in the three prior starts. Novak also finished T27 here last year, so I expect he returns to his form from just a few weeks ago and registers another great finish.

Longshot Pick to win the Valspar Championship (0.1 Units): Joel Dahmen (+11000, FanDuel)

With the way Dahmen struck the ball at THE PLAYERS and was on the cusp of the Top 10 while losing strokes putting, I'm all over him this week and willing to take a small flier on him to win. His numbers on approach and even around the green were that jarringly good last week, so I'm hoping that carries through for four rounds and with a little bit of improvement with the flat-stick.