Why the Thunder's huge collection of draft picks is a problem and an opportunity
By Phil Watson
The Oklahoma City Thunder have accumulated an embarrassment of riches in terms of future NBA draft capital. Through numerous trades, Oklahoma City executive vice president Sam Presti has a war chest of up to 37 picks between 2024-30.
Given that teams have just 15 roster spots to go with two two-way slots, there is no feasible way for the Thunder to keep all of those picks (although Danny Ainge might be yelling "challenge accepted!" at this point).
OKC went all-in on a rebuild after the 2019-20 season, when it traded Chris Paul to the Phoenix Suns, Dennis Schröder to the Los Angeles Lakers, flipped Ricky Rubio and Kelly Oubre Jr. from the Paul deal in separate trades and swapped Steven Adams to the New Orleans Pelicans, just for starters.
The Thunder proceeded to go 22-50 in 2020-21 and 24-58 in 2021-22 before improving to 40 wins and a play-in berth last season. Entering 2023-24, the oldest player on the roster is Victor Oladipo, who isn't expected to show up in Oklahoma City.
Instead, the club is built around point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a first-time All-NBA pick last season after averaging 31.4 points and 5.5 assists per game. The delayed arrival of Chet Holmgren, the 2022 No. 2 overall pick, gives the Thunder another potential star, if early preseason returns are to be believed.
But what Presti has is an almost limitless supply of assets to trade for players that will fit a win-now philosophy once Oklahoma City decides it is at that point in its development.
Here is what is in the treasure chest for Presti and the Thunder, per RealGM:
2024
- All but the least favorable of their own first-round pick, Clippers first-round pick, Rockets first-round pick (top-four protected) and Jazz first-round pick (top-10 protected); the least favorable pick is conveyed to Pacers
- Rockets second-round pick
2025
- Own first-round pick or swap for Rockets first-round pick (top-10 protected) or Clippers first-round pick
- More favorable of Nets first-round pick and less favorable of own pick to own first-round pick or Rockets first-round pick; the other pick to Nets if Rockets pick is more favorable than Clippers (via Thunder swap for Rockets or Clippers and via Rockets swap of own pick or Thunder pick with Nets)
- Jazz first-round pick (top-10 protected), if not already conveyed in 2024
- Heat first-round pick (top-14 protected)
- 76ers first-round pick (top-six protected)
- Hawks second-round pick (top-40 protected)
- More favorable of Celtics and Grizzlies second-round picks
- Rockets second-round pick if first-round pick does not convey in 2024
- 76ers second-round pick
2026
- Own first-round pick
- Jazz first-round pick (top-eight protected) if not already conveyed
- Heat first-round pick if not already conveyed
- 76ers first-round pick (top-four protected) if not already conveyed
- Rockets first-round pick (top-four protected)
- Clippers first-round pick
- Most favorable of Thunder, Mavericks and 76ers second-round pick (second most-favorable to Rockets and least favorable to Spurs)
- Warriors second-round pick
- Rockets second-round pick if first-round pick not conveyed in 2026
2027
- Own first-round pick
- 76ers first-round pick (top-four protected) if not already conveyed
- Nuggets first-round pick (top-five protected) if Nuggets have conveyed first-round pick to Magic by 2025
- Three most favorable of Thunder, Rockets, Pacers and Heat second-round picks (more favorable of Spurs and least favorable of Thunder, Rockets, Pacers and Heat to Spurs and other pick to Heat)
- Timberwolves second-round pick
- 76ers second round pick if first-round pick has not conveyed by 2027
2028
- Own first-round pick
- Nuggets first-round pick (top-six protected) if not already conveyed and Nuggets have conveyed first-round pick to Magic by 2026
- Own second-round pick
- Bucks second-round pick
- Jazz second-round pick
2029
- Own first-round pick
- Nuggets first-round pick (top-five protected) if not conveyed or Nuggets first-round pick (top-five protected) if Nuggets have conveyed first-owed first-round pick to Thunder by 2027
- Own second-round pick
- Hawks second-round pick
- Celtics second-round pick
- Nuggets second-round pick if Nuggets have not conveyed first-owed first-round pick to Thunder by 2029
- Rockets second-round pick
- Heat second-round pick
- Suns second-round pick
2030
- Own first-round pick
- Nuggets first-round pick (top-five protected) if not already conveyed and Nuggets have conveyed first-owed first-round pick to Thunder by 2028
- Own second-round pick
- Nuggets second-round pick if Nuggets have not conveyed second-owed first-round pick to Thunder by 2030
- Rockets second-round pick
- Heat second-round pick
To put this into perspective, the Thunder own enough picks over the next seven drafts to retain seven players and draft two complete 15-man rosters.
Presti will have an unprecedented amount of trade capital with which to build the Thunder roster. Second-round picks are traded like Pokemon cards, but the first-round picks and swaps are potential game-changers in Oklahoma City.
If there is someone the Thunder wants, Presti can just keep throwing picks into the deal until the receiving team is satisfied, all while not blinking an eye.
Imagine being able to put 10 or 12 picks into a deal without even blinking, knowing you still have more than 20 left in the box. It gives Oklahoma City the resources to make one, two or possibly three Godfather deals involving future picks.
And having that much at their disposal makes the Oklahoma City Thunder extremely relevant for the foreseeable future.