You knew it was coming, so don't be surprised if you don't like the results. If the NFL does one thing right, it's selling hope to all of its fan bases. During the NFL Draft, all 32 fan bases can feel good about their futures. If the NFL does another thing right, it's parity. You are never on top for long in this league.
Yes, dynastic runs may occur. We saw the New England Patriots reign supreme for two decades to start the 21st century. Now we are in the midst of the greatest run in Kansas City Chiefs history. In time, the Chiefs' reign over the AFC will come to an end, just like what happened in Foxborough some five or six years ago. Father Time is undefeated and comes for us all. You are never down for long.
Today, I will identify six NFL teams that qualified for the postseason a year ago that may not make it back next year. Worst-to-first happens all the time in this sport. All it takes is for a team to stack a few good offseasons together and then they can go on a run of their own. Again, I am not Nostradamus. All I am doing is painting a picture of half a dozen teams that will be going home in early January.
6. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are, unfortunately, part of this list for three reasons. One, they are not going to sneak up on anyone like they did a year ago closing out their franchise-worst run of futility. Two, we could potentially see a sophomore slump out of Bo Nix, now that opposing teams have some tape on him. And three, while the AFC West is a strong division, the conference does not care, as it is deep everywhere.
The Broncos need to be exponentially better than they were a year ago for me to be 100 percent sure that they are making it back to the postseason. I do not think they have regressed, but how much better have they gotten? Since I do not see them winning the AFC West this year, they will have to settle for one of three AFC Wild Card spots to potentially make it back in.
This was the No. 7 seed after all last year. I like this team going forward, but they could be a bit worse.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I would group the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the same category as I do the Denver Broncos. Do I think the Buccaneers can make it back to the playoffs this year? Probably, but doubt has crept into my mind a bit. Yes, this is the team that has had a stranglehold on my division for years now. This is not a pro-Atlanta Falcons take more than it is a state of where the division and the NFC is currently at today.
While Baker Mayfield has been a revelation at quarterback for the Buccaneers, he will be playing for his third different offensive coordinator in as many years in Tampa Bay. This is a team that has skated into the playoffs the last two years, largely because its three other rivals did not have their stuff together. I am not saying Atlanta or the Carolina Panthers will, but one of them might, and so it goes.
All I know is the New Orleans Saints are not winning the NFC South and Tampa Bay will not finish last.
4. Minnesota Vikings
I will go out on a limb and say it feels more likely than not that the Minnesota Vikings end up being a regression candidate this season. My concerns about J.J. McCarthy stepping in as a first-year starting quarterback coming off a major injury do not sit well with me. While I like Kevin O'Connell as a head coach, defense is still a year-to-year sort of deal. Brian Flores is excellent, but you never know.
What I do know is the Vikings may have taken for granted the type of quarterback play they got out of Kirk Cousins for years and last season out of Sam Darnold. At this time, I am far more comfortable with what the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have under center than the Vikings. While it remains to be seen how much improved the Chicago Bears will be, somebody has to be worse, right?
Until I see McCarthy play at a high level in the NFL, I remain dubious of this NFC franchise.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
If the Los Angeles Chargers fail to qualify for the playoffs next year, it will not be because of head coach Jim Harbaugh or defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. It will be because of their starting quarterback Justin Herbert. I understand that he did not go to the best situation out of the gate from Oregon, but when are we ever going to see him separate and elevate like the player we all think he is?
Yes, it might be fun to see Harbaugh be prickly with the media riding a three-game losing streak, but this is the year where it either happens or it does not for Herbert. Matthew Stafford was able to overcome greater dysfunction to a higher level in Detroit than what Herbert is currently experiencing in Los Angeles. I want him to be a top-eight NFL quarterback, not be given a handout.
I would love to be proven wrong about Herbert, but the guy has to produce to live up to the hype now.
2. Los Angeles Rams
This is my big shot in the dark, more so than even how I feel about the Minnesota Vikings being quarterbacked by J.J. McCarthy. I am shorting the Los Angeles Rams' future every chance I get. Matthew Stafford may be my Dawg, but he is not getting any younger. With Puka Nacua already talking about retiring early, LA could be heading for a rebuild here soon.
As long as head coach Sean McVay remains committed to leading this team, the Rams will never circle the drain. My concern is the division they play in. The Arizona Cardinals might be good enough to win the NFC West this year. While it could go either way with the Seattle Seahawks, I have a strong feeling the San Francisco 49ers return to prominence right before the Brock Purdy contract kicks in.
If it hits the fan in Los Angeles, we could be looking at a team going first-to-worst and picking top 10.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
You knew it was coming. There is not a team in the NFL I find more regularly exhausting than the Pittsburgh Steelers. At some point, the franchise is going to have to wake up from the drowsy-induced spell that head coach Mike Tomlin has them placed under. Who cares if this team can win nine games a year? The Steelers are measured by Super Bowl success. Let's stop making excuses!
This was the easiest and first team I crossed off in this exercise. While I do not think Russell Wilson is any good anymore, nor do I have any use for Justin Fields, those quarterbacks are still better than what the Steelers currently have in veteran backup Mason Rudolph and rookie Will Howard. The Steelers could upgrade, but it will be for a washed Aaron Rodgers or an increasingly old Kirk Cousins.
Even worse, I think the Cincinnati Bengals are going to rip that playoff berth away from them this fall.