The best teams build through the draft. That's the old adage. And it's true. We rarely see the team hoisting the Lomardi Trophy doing so with a lot of free agent players. Teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots have dominated the last decade, and done it with home-grown players.
All that to say, free agent moves aren't everything. In fact - a lot of them are not going to work out as the team thinks they will. And that's ok. But a lot of time it's not just about how "X" player will not live up to the deal "Y" team gave him. But it's also the opportunity cost that goes along with it. We signed "X" instead of "Y" or drafting "Z".
Predicting free agent signings teams will regret
Shall we play a game? Let's try and predict which teams will:
- Regret a free agent signing they made
- How immediately they will regret it
- And why exactly they'll regret it
Robert Hainsey - OC - Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars signed offensive lineman Robert Hainsey to a three-year, $21 million contract to be their new starting center. Hainsey comes from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where Jaguars Head Coach Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator last season.
There's something to be said about a head coach bringing over a veteran who was in his system, as Hainsey was for Coen last year. But the problem is Hainsey didn't actually play for Coen. Hainsey was no longer the starting center for the Buccaneers in 2024 after he was replaced by first-round pick Graham Barton.
I think this move could be regretted fairly quickly. By Week 4 Jacksonville will have played the Panthers, Bengals, Texans, and 49ers. Houston and San Francisco will be tough matchups for this shaky Jacksonville offensive line. And because they had Hainsey, Jacksonville went another way in the draft, passing on Jared Wilson out of Georgia twice in favor of a corner and an offensive guard. I think Wilson could play right away for the Patriots, and if he's playing well and the Jaguars have given up a ton of sacks in the first month, they could wonder why they signed Hainsey.
Darius Slay - CB - Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are on their third straight one-year rental of a veteran outside cornerback. Darius Slay was released by the Philadelphia Eagles just days after their Super Bowl parade. Slay is 34 years old and is coming off of his first no interception season since his first year in the league.
Slay is still a good player, but as he's getting older he's switching into more of a man system than he was in in Philadelphia, who runs a lot of zone. I can see some tough games early on in 2025 where Slay gets burned down the sideline for a touchdown just because he doesn't have the same foot speed.
The biggest test for this will be Week 7 against the Cincinnati Bengals who have two top-tier outside wide receivers. But as early as Week 2 I'm keeping an eye on Marquez Valdes-Scantling of the Seattle Seahawks. If he burns Slay for a "big play" or two in that one, it could be a long season for the Steelers.
Joey Bosa - EDGE - Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills tore the defense to the studs in 2024 and needed to add some splashy fixtures back in the mix in 2025. A "cheap" flier with that in mind was signing edge rusher Joey Bosa. At his peak Bosa was a multi-time Pro Bowler and double-digit sack getter. But injuries have zapped the last few years from him, playing in just 28 games in the last three seasons.
It's a fairly cheap move - one year, $12 million - but counting on Bosa to provide reliable and even splashy edge play is a big risk.
When looking at the opportunity cost there weren't a lot of names that could've been had in free agency instead of Bosa. But looking at the draft, there were certainly better edge players on the board than what they got. I like the T.J. Sanders pick at 41, but had Bosa not been signed would they have taken Donovan Ezeiruaku or J.T. Tuimoloau with that pick instead? Both players I had high grades on, and certainly like over the 2025 version of Bosa.
This move could look rough in the first two weeks of the season when the Bills open things up against the Ravens and Jets. Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, etc.
Cam Robinson - LT - Houston Texans
It's no secret the Houston Texans had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last year. And while, through reporting, it sounds like they needed to change up the room, putting Cam Robinson at your left tackle spot in 2025 could spell disaster.
Robinson was traded midseason by the Jacksonville Jaguars last year to the Minnesota Vikings. It's never a good sign for a player when they are the starter left tackle, and get traded DURING the season.
The Texans open their season against the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. All three teams have some combination of high-level pass rushers and good team/coaching advantage on the defensive line. If Robinson gives up a few bad sacks in those first three weeks Houston might look back on the Robinson signing as a mistake.
Haason Reddick - EDGE - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Haason Reddick to a one-year, $14 million deal this offseason in the hopes he can reclaim some of his 2022 success. Since that 16-sack, five forced fumble season he has a combined 12 sacks and one forced fumble in the last two years.
Things could get messy for Reddick and the Bucs pretty early because the veteran wasn't at OTA's last week. This pings for us on the outside about a player, who held out during contract talks for FOREVER last year.
While there weren't many edge rushers in this price range the Bucs could've gotten instead, it was surprising they didn't address the position in the draft until the fourth round. If Reddick doesn't perform at a starter level right away, or even MAKE it to training camp/the season, It's safe to say the Bucs could regret their decision to bring him in.
Chidobe Awuzie - CB - Baltimore Ravens
This is very similar to the Darius Slay and Steelers mention. As of now, Chidobe Aquzie is slated to be the second starting cornerback opposite Nate Wiggins for the Baltimore Ravens.
Now, this deal cost Baltimore very little as it's a veteran minimum contract. But how might this affect Baltimore ON the field? Awuzie has had one healthy season in the last three years, so you might be looking at needing his backup sooner than later. And when he does play, he hasn't been the same player he was early in his career.
Baltimore's defense has started slow in recent years. If Awuzie struggles early on with speed or physicality, things could repeat themselves from the past and set them back more than they want this year. In the first six weeks of the season Baltimore plays Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Houston, and the LA Rams. There are a lot of good quarterbacks in that stretch who know how to pick out a weak link at quarterback.
Chase Young - EDGE - New Orleans Saints
This is one I have to keep reminding myself about. The New Orleans Saints gave Chase Young a three-year, $51 million contract after one year and 5.5 sacks for the team last year.
Young's career has been sapped in a lot of ways by injury early on, but has suffered mostly from lack of production in the last two years. He has just 13 sacks in that time, and never in his career has he had more than 7.5 in one season. And yet, New Orleans made him the 19th highest-paid edge rusher in the league and tacked on void years to boot.
Young found a role last year as a solid player and run defender, but New Orleans might regret giving him that contract ALREADY considering the state the team is in at quarterback after Derek Carr's retiring.
Stefon Diggs - WR - New England Patriots
Oh, Diggs. The New England Patriots signed Stefon Diggs to a three-year, $63.5 million deal this offseason to be their "ace" at the receiver position. And the latest rumblings are he could even be cut after missing OTAs to be on a boat with some...friends? We'll go with that. So there's THAT.
But if we wanted to skip to JUST football we have to remember the context of Diggs joining the Patriots. New England signed the receiver nearly three weeks after free agency had begun. So he was out there for a while, and they probably explored SOME options before landing on Diggs.
Diggs also suffered a torn ACL last year in the middle of the season, and hasn't had his usual level of production since 2023. All these factors rolled together and we might have to admit Diggs is well past his prime.
New England starts their season against the Raiders and the Dolphins - not the most intimidating secondaries. But if he and quarterback Drake Maye aren't on the same page by Week 3, they have to play the Steelers, Panthers, and Bills over the next three games. All with legitimate CB1-type players to face off against Diggs.
This one would especially hurt the Patriots because there's not a proven commodity in the wide receiver room. And if it's so early in the year, or even before the season starts that Diggs doesn't work out, it's another year for Maye without a true, consistent target to go to.