Projected SEC Tournament bracket after Auburn loses, Texas tops Mississippi State

How do Tuesday's results on the court impact the SEC race and the projected bracket for next week's SEC Tournament?
Mar 4, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) passes the ball as Texas A&M Aggies forward Pharrel Payne (21) defends during the first half at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
Mar 4, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome (4) passes the ball as Texas A&M Aggies forward Pharrel Payne (21) defends during the first half at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The SEC had an exciting weekend of basketball games as many ranked teams played against each other and provided down-to-the-wire finishes between Tennessee and Alabama and between Vanderbilt and Missouri.

The frantic pace continued in the conference on Tuesday night as teams continued to fight for spots in the NCAA Tournament during the final week of the regular season. Two teams (Texas and Texas A&M) came up with huge upsets to pad their resumes.

The Longhorns added a ranked win over No. 25 Mississippi State in overtime, while the Aggies knocked off No. 1 Auburn for their first-ever win over a top-ranked team.

Let's take a look at the implications on the conference standings and the projected SEC Tournament filed after Tuesday's results.

Updated SEC standings with conference records

1. Auburn (15-2)

T2. Florida (12-4)

T2. Alabama (12-4)

4. Tennessee (11-5)

5. Missouri (10-6)

6. Texas A&M (10-7)

7. Ole Miss (9-7)

8. Kentucky (9-8)

T9. Mississippi State (8-9)

T9. Vanderbilt (8-9)

T11. Arkansas (7-10)

T11. Georgia (7-10)

13. Texas (6-11)

14. Oklahoma (4-12)

15. LSU (3-14)

16. South Carolina (2-15)

And the SEC Tournament, if the season ended today.

SEC Tournament Bracket if the season ended today

First round (Wed. March 12)

Team vs.

Team

Game 1

(9) Mississippi State

(16) South Carolina

Game 2

(12) Georgia

(13) Texas

Game 3

(10) Vanderbilt

(15) LSU

Game 4

(11) Arkansas

(14) Oklahoma

Second Round (Thurs. March 13)

Team vs.

Team

Game 5

Game 1 winner

(8) Kentucky

Game 6

Game 2 winner

(5) Missouri

Game 7

Game 3 winner

(7) Ole Miss

Game 8

Game 4 winner

(6) Texas A&M

Quarterfinals (Fri. March 14)

Team vs.

Team

Game 9

Game 5 winner

(1) Auburn

Game 10

Game 6 winner

(4) Tennessee

Game 11

Game 7 winner

(2) Florida

Game 12

Game 8 winner

(3) Alabama

Semifinals (Sat. March 15)

Team vs.

Team

Game 13

Game 9 winner

Game 10 winner

Game 14

Game 11 winner

Game 12 winner

Finals (Sun. March 16)

Team vs.

Team

Game 15

Game 13 winner

Game 14 winner

Auburn has the conference championship and the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament locked down despite Tuesday's loss. The Tigers still hold a 2.5-game lead over Florida and Alabama, with at least one of those teams guaranteed to lose because they play each other Wednesday night.

That game will likely sort out second place, but Tennessee looms right behind after its buzzer beating win over the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Tennessee has two unranked opponents remaining, while Alabama has two top-five games.

Because of that, Wednesday's game seems more important for Alabama than Florida since Tennessee would have an easier time passing the Crimson Tide in the standings. The Volunteers only played Alabama once and split their two meetings with Florida.

Missouri is hoping for Tennessee to falter during the last week with a slim chance to catch the Volunteers. The Tigers can only pass Tennessee if they win out and Tennessee loses out because Tennessee won their only head-to-head matchup.

Texas A&M can only tie the Vols and would lose the tiebreaker due to a 77-69 loss on Feb. 22. The Aggies only have one regialr season game remaining. They would fall to seventh behind Ole Miss if the Rebels win out and Texas A&M loses its finale. A&M has the tiebreaker should they both finish 11-7 in league play.

The Aggies can climb to fifth with a Missouri loss, because they beat the Tigers in early February.

Kentucky can only finish 10-8 at best, so the Wildcats will be hoping for some help to try to move up the standings in the final week. To do so, Kentucky will need to win its last game and have Ole Miss lose both its final games. That could put Kentucky seventh, and a Texas A&M loss would put the Wildcats in sixth.

After losing to Georgia and Arkansas, Texas has pretty much cemented its spot in the SEC Tournament despite the upset over Mississippi State. The Longhorns trail Georgia and Arkansas by a game and cannot grab the tiebreaker as a result. Luckily, their lead over Oklahoma, LSU, and South Carolina is too large for them to drop further.

A three-way tie between Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas would give Arkansas the best seed of the three, followed by Georgia, then Texas.

There could also be a three-way tie for second place if Tennessee wins out and Alabama and Florida each drop one. Plus, there are multiple teams jockeying for position in the middle, with Missouri on Tennessee's tail and four teams separated by 1.5 games.

In all those events, the seeding will be decided by the best winning percentages against each other. If still tied after that, their records against Auburn become the next tiebreaker, followed by a coin flip and a random draw from the commissioner.