Ranking the biggest upsets in NFL Wild Card weekend history

The NFL postseason kicks off in earnest on Saturday with Wild Card weekend, as six games spread over three days will help narrow the postseason field from 14 teams to 8. While the top seed (or top two seeds before the postseason expanded from 12 teams to 14 in 2020) sits out the action with a well-deserved bye, we have seen plenty of teams emerge from the first weekend of playoff games and go on a run to the Super Bowl.

There have also been plenty of dramatic upsets over the years that have produced shocking storylines and deep postseason runs. The action has really heated up since the advent of the salary cap in 1994, which leveled the playing field and made it harder for dynasties to sustain themselves over prolonged periods. Before this year's Wild Card action kicks off, let's look back at six of the biggest upsets of the Wild Card era.

7 biggest upsets of wild card weekend in NFL history

7. 2019 - Tennessee Titans 22, Kansas City Chiefs 21

The Chiefs have made plenty of noise in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes took over as their starting quarterback, but 2018 marked the last year of Alex Smith's run as the starter. After Mahomes quarterbacked the team in their regular season finale, the Chiefs opened Wild Card weekend as 8.5-point favorites against Tennessee, which was quarterbacked by Marcus Mariota and snuck into the postseason as a wild card with a 9-7 record.

The game looked like it would be a blowout early, with Kansas City racing to a 21-3 lead at the half, but the Titans didn't give up. Tennessee scored the final 19 points of the game, including a go-ahead touchdown pass from Mariota to Eric Decker with 6:06 to go to help the Titans stun the Chiefs with a 22-21 upset.

Carried by 156 yards on the ground from third-year back Derrick Henry, the Titans became the first road team to overcome an 18-point halftime deficit in the playoffs since 1972 and secured their first postseason victory in 14 years in the process. This game set the stage for Tennessee's run as an AFC powerhouse under Mike Vrabel while the Chiefs made the switch from Smith to Mahomes after this game, a decision they surely don't regret.

6. 2005 - New York Jets 20, San Diego Chargers 17

While the Jets may be a laughingstock these days, they were actually a competent organization in the 2000s, making the postseason six times with two runs to the AFC Championship Game under Rex Ryan. This contest came towards the end of Herman Edwards' tenure as Jets' head coach as New York headed to San Diego for a playoff contest as 6.5-point underdogs against the Drew Brees-led Chargers, who went 12-4 under legendary head coach Marty Schottenheimer.

The Jets built a 17-7 lead midway through the third quarter but San Diego came all the way back to tie the game with 16 seconds to go after taking advantage of a brutal roughing the passer penalty from Jets' linebacker Eric Barton on a potentially game-ending fourth-and-2. Brees hit Antonio Gates for the game-tying touchdown and the contest went to overtime, with both teams trading possessions before Nate Kaeding missed a game-winning 40-yard field goal.

That break was all the Jets would need as Doug Brien nailed a 28-yard field goal with eight seconds to go in the first overtime period to send New York on to Pittsburgh. The Jets nearly pulled an upset in that round as well before Brien's missed go-ahead field goal at the end of regulation gave the Steelers the opportunity to win it in overtime.

5. 1999 - Arizona Cardinals 20, Dallas Cowboys 7

Few NFL games can signal a changing of the guard more than this 1998 Wild Card matchup in Dallas did. The Cowboys had won the NFC East at 10-6 as their dynasty core was trying to make one more run at glory and opened the postseason against then division rival Arizona, which was making its first postseason appearance in 16 years and entered the contest as a touchdown underdog.

The stage wasn't too big for Arizona, which shocked Dallas 20-7 to earn its first playoff win since 1947 and advance to the Divisional Round against Minnesota. While the Cardinals didn't really build on this result, the bigger takeaway is that this loss was the beginning of the end for the Cowboys' dynasty, which saw them get back to the playoffs in 1999 and get blown out in Minnesota before missing the postseason for the next four years.

One of the more shocking aspects of this game was how dominant the Cardinals looked, building a 20-0 lead before the Cowboys finally got on the board in the fourth quarter. That touchdown was too little, too late in what would turn out to be Dallas' last NFC East crown for almost a decade.

4. 2024 - Green Bay Packers 48, Dallas Cowboys 32

The new postseason format for the NFL has raised the stakes for Wild Card Weekend by increasing the number of games from four to six and removing the bye for the No. 2 seed in each conference. For a while the 2-7 games were complete afterthoughts, with the lone competitive one over the first three years of the format coming in 2020 when the Colts took the Bills to the wire in Buffalo before falling, but 2023 saw the first ever 2-7 upset as the Packers shockingly dismantled a dominant Cowboys side in Dallas.

After a 12-5 regular season that saw Dallas outlast the fading Eagles to claim the NFC East crown, hopes were high for the Cowboys' first run to at least the NFC Championship game since the mid-1990s. Those hopes were dashed quickly as the Packers, who snuck into the postseason as a 9-8 wild card, jumped all over the Cowboys early, building a 27-7 halftime lead and pushing it out to 48-16 at the start of the fourth quarter.

The sheer shock value of how dominant the Packers were helped this game make the list, and it is also notable how the loss seemed to linger with Dallas for the 2024 season. After being one of the most dominant home teams in football over the past two years, the Cowboys went just 2-7 at AT&T Stadium, a big reason why they missed the playoffs.

3. 2003 - Atlanta Falcons 27, Green Bay Packers 7

One of the most verifiable truths in pro football prior to the turn of the century was that a Green Bay home playoff game was a lock victory for the home team. Prior to the 2002 season, the Packers had never lost a home playoff game at Lambeau Field, going 11-0 dating all the way back to 1933 and were in a good spot with a dome-based Atlanta Falcons team heading north on a frigid Saturday night.

The end result was a complete shock as Atlanta, which entered the night as 6.5-point underdogs, built a 24-0 halftime lead on their way to a stunning 27-7 upset over a 12-4 Packers team that had gone undefeated at home during the regular season. The contest served as a national coming out party for Falcons' quarterback Michael Vick, who completed 13-of-25 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown while carrying 10 times for another 64 yards.

This defeat shattered a lot of mystique about the Packers' home field advantage and Brett Favre's cold-weather dominance as this game ended a 35-0 run of home wins when game time temperature dropped below 34 degrees Fahrenheit. Green Bay has been a much more average home playoff team since this game, going 7-6 at Lambeau with a few disappointing NFC Championship game defeats in the mix.

2. 2013 - Denver Broncos 29, Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Home field advantage matters a lot in the playoffs, so it is highly unusual to see a heavy road favorite in the Wild Card round. The top two games on this list fit the bill as a home team was a heavy underdog and found a way to pull off a win, with Denver stunning a Steelers team favored by 7.5 points 29-23 in overtime.

Many experts were skeptical of the success of the Broncos, who ran a very limited offensive scheme with Tim Tebow under center. Having the opponent be Pittsburgh, which was just a year removed from representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, further increased the belief that Tebow's magic carpet ride was going to come to a brutal end in front of his home fans.

Tebow ended up playing the game of his life, completing 10-of-21 passes for 316 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning 80-yard strike to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of the extra session. That game would be Tebow's last NFL win as a starting quarterback as Denver moved on following a loss to New England in the Divisional Round, signing Peyton Manning in the offseason in a move that saw them go to two Super Bowls and win one with Super Bowl 50.

1. 2011 - Seattle Seahawks 41, New Orleans Saints 36

Fans who have argued that highly achieving Wild Card teams should be rewarded with home games over mediocre division champs have always pointed to this game as proof of concept. The Seattle Seahawks won a very bad NFC West at 7-9 and played host to the 11-5 Saints, who had just won the Super Bowl the year before, and were 10-point underdogs in this game.

The spread proved to be a big motivating factor for Seattle, which played inspired football and beat New Orleans 41-36 to stun the defending champs and move onto the Divisional Round. Casual fans will remember this as the Beast Quake game, which featured Marshawn Lynch's epic 67-yard touchdown run that saw him break nine tackles and fire up the fans so much that their celebration registered on the Richter scale.

While Seattle went on to lose to the Chicago Bears the very next week, this kind of upset shook up the playoff bracket and served as a reminder that anything can happen on any given Sunday. It remains to be seen if anyone can top Seattle's Beast Quake stunner this year but it will be a very tough act to follow.