If you have seen one NFL quarterbacks power rankings, you have seen them all, right? Not so fast, my friend... We all know who the cream of the crop in the sport are, but how much job security does a guy have? It is a combination of past performance, future opportunities and other interesting attributes. Every year, we feel like we know the four best in the league, but every so often, that totally flips on us.
The NFL is short for Not For Long. First on top of the world, now getting toppled on. In a sport derived out of regulated violence and defined by competitive balance, nobody is on top forever, and nobody is down for that painfully long. Time is a loose construct. It took glaciers millennia to move, but they did move! Every NFL season is different, but where we were only five years ago is drastically different.
So what I want to do today is anoint a starting quarterback for all 32 teams, even in spots where one is yet to be decided, and then try to figure out how much stock and equity a franchise has invested in them now and going forward. The results were a bit more chaotic than I could have ever guessed. I do not know if I have this all right, but the exercise is one that could drive conversations moving forward.
I put all 32 teams' projected starting quarterback into eight unequal buckets, based on how they fit.
Quarterbacks I am not entirely sure end up winning the starting job
These quarterbacks are my picks to win their respective starting jobs, but nothing is written in stone.
32. Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders
For sentimental and fun reasons, would it not be great to see Shedeur Sanders overcome his unexpected draft-day slide to become the next Bernie Kosar of the Cleveland Browns? He still has to beat out the likes of Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Kenny Pickett, but his polish, precision and overall passing abilities have really stuck out in a positive way in the early stages of the Browns' offseason.
31. New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough could end up being the guy for the New Orleans Saints, but I have a bad feeling he is about to receive the Jimmy Clausen treatment. The Carolina Panthers fed Clausen to the wolves back in 2010. They were awful, and he was so bad. Carolina ended up taking Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton out of Auburn the next spring. Shough will be better than Clausen, but he is still replaceable.
30. New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart
The only thing that matters for the New York Giants is for first-round rookies Abdul Carter and Jaxson Dart to be empowered this football season. Carter already has. Is Dart about to be? He may not win the starting job out of camp, but I would venture to guess he will start some down the stretch once Russell Wilson has run his course. Still, Dart was a later riser during the draft process for a reason.
Quarterbacks I am confident will be given the keys to the car, to drive?
I feel very confident that this next group of quarterbacks will win the starting job, but that is about it.
29. Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy
I need to see J.J. McCarthy play in a game that counts for the Minnesota Vikings first. He was a good player at Michigan, but was propped up by a great team. While he did go to the perfect spot in the 2024 NFL Draft, he lasted one preseason game before getting hurt. The talent is there and so is his poise. I just wonder if he can throw the ball with enough touch and accuracy to extend more drives.
28. Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
For so many reasons, I feel that this era of Miami Dolphins football needs to end. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be the sacrificial lamb, but him putting his neck out for the injury-prone Tua Tagovailoa was a death sentence from the start. If Tagovailoa is healthy, he will start. If he is not, then get ready for a whole bunch of nonsense with Zach Wilson and Quinn Ewers backing him up. Do you want that?
27. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones
Me putting Daniel Jones down here as the projected starting quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts should tell you everything I think of Anthony Richardson. I get that a new member of The Irsay Family will be taking over as owner. This may allow more internal football nonsense to continue. Jones is far more steady than the idea of Richardson. Jones will start, the Colts will lose, and everyone gets fired.
26. Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward
My favorite thing about Cam Ward going to the Tennessee Titans is second-year head coach Brian Callahan will make him earn the starting job. He will have to beat out Will Levis for it. My least favorite thing about Ward going to the Titans is just about everything else. He may be panacea for this long, moribund AFC South franchise, manna coming down from above, if you will. I just have my concerns.
Quarterbacks who are unquestioned starters but have some major flaws
I have no doubts these quarterbacks will be Week 1 starters, but their teams may turn on them soon.
25. New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields
This will be the last year any NFL team will do everything in its power to convince itself that Justin Fields is a franchise-level quarterback. He is not, merely an overqualified stop-gap. This year's sucker happens to be the New York Jets. He will make plays and he will win the Jets games. Fields will also not show up when you need him the most. He is under contract for a bit, but 2025 might be it for him.
24. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold
If Sam Darnold went back to the Minnesota Vikings, I would probably have him much higher on this list. He impressed me a ton in his lone season playing in the Twin Cities. The problem is that he is now labeled as a journeyman, one who is tasked with keeping the Seattle Seahawks afloat. He might. I do not know. I will say that a far more physically gifted player will be backing him up there in Jalen Milroe.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
I do not get it. Aaron Rodgers wanted another paycheck and one last halfway decent shot at getting to the Super Bowl. I find the Pittsburgh Steelers fit odd and the timing of his signing even odder. A guy who loves to go off-script will be playing for a guy who hates that in Arthur Smith. Rodgers is more talented than Mason Rudolph and Will Howard, but I am struggling to see how this all works out well.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence
Liam Coen took the Jacksonville Jaguars job so he could coach up Trevor Lawrence. At some point, when is Lawrence going to be a dog? He had everything rolling for him at Clemson, but does not seem to be the fail-proof tractor that could plow through untrodden land down in Duval. He may or may not be built for it. I do know that Shahid Khan paid him a fortune to essentially be Justin Herbert.
Quarterbacks who will get run and might impress big time this season
I am buying stock in these quarterbacks ahead of this season because I feel they will only up in price.
21. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
Drake Maye is so fortunate to get the head coach he deserves in Mike Vrabel. Now that the former Tennessee Titans head coach is leading the charge for the New England Patriots, this once-proud enterprise is worthy of investing heavily into again. Maye may not have the alpha dog mentality that I wish he did to become an all-time great quarterback, but I am far more confident now in his runway.
20. Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith
Consider me a believer in seeing what Geno Smith can be playing for the Las Vegas Raiders. He had success in Seattle, with or without Pete Carroll. Coming to Las Vegas puts him in a brighter spotlight, but I think he has the chance to be a Pro Bowl-level player for a little bit longer playing in Chip Kelly's offense. The Raiders are still probably the worst team in the division, but I do not think it is by much.
19. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
My bias is showing, but I am not alone in thinking Michael Penix Jr. could be a superstar in the making for the Atlanta Falcons. Kalen DeBoer described him as the best leader he has ever coached. Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson and his Atlanta teammates rave about him. My concerns have everything to do with his health, as well as the Falcons being far more dysfunctional than they think.
18. Carolina Panthers head coach Bryce Young
This is all about my belief in Dave Canales as a head coach. Bryce Young has many physical limitations as an NFL quarterback, but I think they can make it work on the Carolina Panthers because they trust each other. Canales did bench Young last season in favor of Andy Dalton, but only to reinsert him later to get a far better player. The ceiling is low, but the floor is rising with Young here.
Quarterbacks who are teetering in and out of stardom at this juncture
We are looking at quarterbacks either trying to maintain a certain level of stardom, or level up a bit.
17. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray
This is a critical season for everyone involved in the Arizona Cardinals organization. If all goes according to plan, they can win the NFC West and go on a deep playoff run. If they fail to qualify for the playoffs, that may put a great deal of pressure on head coach Jonathan Gannon, as well as on long-time starting quarterback Kyler Murray. Does he have it in him to level up, or is this who he is?
16. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford should be able to retire with the Los Angeles Rams, but we have to wonder how much more time Sean McVay is going to invest in him, even if he was best friends in high school with Stafford's brother-in-law? Stafford will go down as one of the game's most underrated quarterbacks. His legacy will be interesting, but how much more are we going to be adding to it before it is over?
15. Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams
I am still not ready to crown Caleb Williams yet, but it could become an inevitability if he really jells with new head coach Ben Johnson on the Chicago Bears. He needs some tough love to grow and hopefully get the most out of his talent. I could go either way if it is him doing that for Chicagoland, but there are great people who live there and I want to see them happy, so all aboard this hype train!
Quarterbacks who have been paid, are the guy, but are they really?
These quarterbacks have been paid like star players, but why do we still question them, though?
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield
This is a big year for Baker Mayfield because he will have a bigger say in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. He will have his third new offensive coordinator in as many years in Tampa. Josh Grizzard may be an internal promotion, but Mayfield needs to call the shots. He wants to chuck it long. It may work out. It may not. Mayfield's overstated athleticism gets him in trouble. He has some job security.
13. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott has really made a name for himself as a former fourth-round pick out of Mississippi State. He has won games, but he has been paid a boatload to win more. With Brian Schottenheimer taking over as the Dallas Cowboys head coach, more will be put on Prescott's plate to be the star quarterback Dallas deserves. He can be at times, but he is getting passed by more and more players.
12. Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love
It took a year or two, but Jordan Love has reintroduced even more stability to the quarterback room of the Green Bay Packers. It is his team now and for the foreseeable future. However, I do wonder if we are closer to the ceiling with Love that we ever realize. We know Green Bay can win with him, but can the Packers win because of him? I am still intrigue by his growth as a football star entering his prime.
11. Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert
I have said it before, and I will say it again. I am running out of patience when it comes to Justin Herbert. Built like a Greek god, yet why does he never deliver in the big spots? Jim Harbaugh left Michigan to take over the Los Angeles Chargers, just so he could coach the guy. I would say the Chargers are quite comfortable with the guy, but getting comfortable is how you lose in the NFL.
Quarterbacks who are seen as otherworldly by the organizations
The love these organizations and fanbases have for their starting quarterback is fine, but a bit overkill.
10. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy is a franchise quarterback, but I am not sure he will ever be a top-five performer at his position in the sport. He went to the absolutely perfect place for him in the San Francisco 49ers where he could learn under Kyle Shanahan. After getting paid a small fortune this past offseason, now will be the time for Purdy to prove to everyone how good he really is. This fanbase could turn on him.
9. Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix
Man, do the Denver Broncos love them some Bo Chapman Nix?! He is exactly what this franchise needed at the quarterback position. He provides Denver a healthy amount of stability, athleticism and starts. Thus, he has seen more than most quarterbacks his age. While I do feel that he is largely being propped up by his head coach Sean Payton, I thought his floor was rather high coming out of Oregon.
8. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud
I am wanting C.J. Stroud to take the next step so badly. The Houston Texans may finally have the franchise quarterback they deserve, but it will all be for naught if he cannot be the one to take advantage of the rest of the AFC South being down. The talent is undeniable there. Stroud often wowed me when he was leading Ohio State. He may be top-five on this list in a year, or he may fall...
7. Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff
Jared Goff is just a really good quarterback. He has been through everything coming out of Cal. While he had his moments leading the Los Angeles Rams, it was no longer good enough for his former head coach Sean McVay. Instead, Goff took his game to an even higher level with the Detroit Lions. Goff could lead the Lions to a Super Bowl this year and it will not surprise me. He has staying power.
6. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels is well on his way to superstardom. His last two football seasons have been nothing short of sensational. He won the Heisman Trophy during his final year at LSU before becoming the No. 2 overall pick by the Washington Commanders last spring. As long as he continues to get good coaching, the sky really is the limit for him. I just hope that he and Washington get a real shot at this.
Quarterbacks who are seen as otherworldly by everyone who has eyes
Here are the five best quarterbacks in the NFL, where benching them or doubting them is blasphemy.
5. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts is not only a Super Bowl MVP, but he seems to be on his way to a Pro Football Hall of Fame career. Winning a Super Bowl and getting to another puts him in rarified air. While the stats do not always jump off the page, Hurts is incredibly cool under pressure. Even with coordinator changes, he provides a level of steadiness that drives the Philadelphia Eagles to an greater levels of success.
4. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow remains one of my favorite quarterbacks in the league. Where you land matters, but maybe not for Burrow. Almost single-handedly, he has helped transform the Cincinnati Bengals from a doormat to a force to be reckoned with in the deep AFC. As long as he stays healthy, he will have incredibly long staying power in Cincinnati. He has to overcome more to do what others stars can.
3. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson
The only thing Lamar Jackson has not done up to this point in his football career is get to the Super Bowl. The Baltimore Ravens are one of the best-run organizations in the sport. Jackson is a physical freak who continues to refine his impressive game with every passing season. We are looking at a Mt. Rushmore player in Ravens history already. His job is safe, but he really needs to win that Super Bowl.
2. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen
Josh Allen is the reigning NFL MVP. The Buffalo Bills have their most reliable passer since the iconic Jim Kelly starred in Western New York. Allen can seemingly do no wrong in the eyes of Bills Mafia. He is a tremendous player on a hall-of-fame trajectory, but we need a few more seasons of sustained success, as well as a trip or two to a Super Bowl, probably a win if we are being totally honest here.
1. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes
The Kansas City Chiefs will remain championship-viable for as long as Patrick Mahomes stays in his prime. The Super Bowls may not come as frequently in the coming years, but I do expect more will be coming at some point. For now, let's sit back and enjoy the partnership he has with head coach Andy Reid while we can. Mahomes has more job security than anyone not running a billion-dollar company.