Ranking possible Bills playoff opponents: Best-case, worst-case, likeliest matchup

Sitting at 9-2 heading into their bye week following a statement-making win over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills are in a great spot as it pertains to the NFL playoff picture.

For starters, Buffalo is essentially already guaranteed to win the AFC East for a fifth straight season. Up by four games in the loss column over the second-place Miami Dolphins (4-6) and five full games over the New York Jets (3-8) and New England Patriots (3-8), it would take a monumental collapse for the Bills not to claim one of the top four seeds in the conference.

They do have some intriguing matchups coming up as they'll face the San Francisco 49ers (5-5), the NFC-leading Detroit Lions (9-1), and the Los Angeles Rams (5-5) in the three weeks after their bye. But they then close things out with the Patriots in Week 16, the Jets in Week 17, and the Patriots again in Week 18.

So, again, the Bills are a lock. But where exactly will they be seeded? Well, that obviously remains to be seen.

While most conversations surrounding Buffalo's playoff position revolve around them taking the No. 1 spot from the Chiefs, it's important not to forget about the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2), who would take over the Bills' current spot at No. 2 if they knock off the Cleveland Browns (2-8) on Thursday night due to having a better record within the conference.

The Steelers took a two-game lead in the loss column this past Sunday with a big win over the Baltimore Ravens (7-4), which obviously gives them a big edge in the AFC North.

As for the AFC South, the Houston Texans (7-4) are pretty much a lock there, as they hold a two-game advantage over the second-place Indianapolis Colts and have already beaten them twice.

Buffalo currently holds a two-game lead on Houston, and they'll need to maintain an advantage there, as the Texans would take a tiebreaker in the seeding scenario due to their 23-20 win over the Bills in Week 5.

The Bills, of course, wouldn't see a division winner until the Divisional Round. So, for now, let's stick to some teams Buffalo could encounter in the Wild Card Round.

Bills best-case NFL playoff scenario

The best-case scenario for the Bills, of course, is winning the No. 1 seed in the AFC. And that's undoubtedly a possibility at this point.

For that to happen, though, Buffalo needs Kansas City to lose at least one more game down the stretch. And that's a strong possibility as well, as the Chiefs still have division games remaining with the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 14) and Denver Broncos (Week 18), both of whom are playing well right now, and matchups with the Texans (Week 16) and Steelers (Week 17). So, there's a path here.

But let's say the Chiefs keep the No. 1 seed.

The best-case scenario for the Bills then is obviously winning the No. 2 spot, at which point they'd play the final wild-card team from the AFC. At the moment, that would be the Broncos, who improved to 6-5 this last week with a 32-point win over the Atlanta Falcons. And another win seems probable this week against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The two teams closest to Denver heading into Week 12 are the Colts and Dolphins. Indy is likely taking a loss, as they've got a date with Detroit, which means Miami could easily move into the No. 8 slot as they host New England.

The Bills would likely prefer to see the Colts or Dolphins instead of the Broncos, as they've already beaten both teams this season. It's never easy to beat a team three times in the same season, so a Wild Card Round matchup with Miami might prove tricky.

Of these three teams, Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule, and the Bills should be for the Colts down the stretch, as they seem like they'd be the weakest opponent.

Bills worst-case NFL playoff scenario

The worst-case scenario for the Bills would be dropping down to No. 4, as this spot only guarantees them one home game. They'd also obviously be playing the top wild-card team in the AFC here, which, right now, is the red-hot Chargers, who've won four straight.

However, the Ravens, who smoked the Bills by a score of 35-10 in Week 4, are right there in this mix as well. And don't count Baltimore out of the AFC North race just yet.

Yes, the Steelers are in control, but they've got some tough games down the stretch, including one more with the Ravens, the aforementioned matchup with the Chiefs, two games with the tricky Cincinnati Bengals, and an in-state rivalry battle with NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles.

It's not as if the Ravens have it easy, though. For one, they've got the Chargers this Monday night, a game that could prove critical in this playoff race. And they've still got the Eagles, Steelers, and Texans on the docket.

If the Bills fall to No. 4 or even No. 3, for that matter, it's almost guaranteed that they'd play either the Chargers, Ravens, or Steelers in the Wild Card Round. And none of those options sound like much fun.

Bills likeliest NFL playoff scenario

lf we're being honest, the likeliest playoff scenario for the Bills right now is that they end up as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Of the seven teams currently holding playoff positions right now, only Houston has an easier remaining strength of schedule than Buffalo.

But with the two-game advantage on the Texans right now, that shouldn't be a problem if the Bills handle their business. And the way they've been playing, the only game in which I foresee them taking a loss the rest of the way is their Week 15 matchup with the Lions, who look like the best team in the NFL.

The Chiefs were already showing plenty of vulnerability even before their loss to Buffalo, and it seems more and more likely that they'll take at least two more losses, given some of the challenging games they've got coming up.

If both finish 14-3, the Bills obviously win the tiebreaker. And if we're talking the most likely scenarios here, let's just go ahead and pencil in yet another Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes duel for the ages come late January.