Ball security is job security, yours and mine. Well, there may be a little bit more to that in this glorified NFL offseason hot seat watch post. I was tasked with essentially power ranking every head coach's status when it comes to where he finds himself on the hot seat. Is he firmly on it? Could he be on it? Is there even a snowball's chance in hell that he is on it? Every coach, team and job is quite different.
To try to sift through all the utter madness here, I essentially split all 32 NFL head coaches into 10 groupings, based on how we should view them entering the season. Some groupings have as many as five inside of one, while others may only have a pair of coaches. The whole point is to understand that while every job is different, some situations closely resemble that of another guy's in the league.
For all intents and purposes, roughly a quarter of the league will be looking to hire new head coaches next offseason. It is the nature of the beast. What is important to know in this exercise is coaches I have ranked No. 8-1 are not guaranteed to get whacked after this season, but are entering this fall with a bit more pressure placed upon them when compared to some of their other contemporaries.
Without further ado, let's work our way down from the safest seat in the NFL to the hottest one of all!
- Head coaches who have achieved legendary status and will never be fired
- Head coaches who would be hired immediately if fired, so do not do that!
- First-year head coaches who will not be fired after 2025 for any reason
- Good coaches who could be ousted because they work for chaotic teams
- Head coaches we like but might need to prove something this season
- Playoff disappointments could bring to an end their impressive tenures
- Coaches in tough spots who may not get the benefit of the doubt, sadly
- Media turning against them will not help their cause if they do not win
- It is really starting to feel like playoffs of bust for these head coaches
- The hottest seats in the NFL right now, and for debatably good reasons
Head coaches who have achieved legendary status and will never be fired
Right now, it almost entirely is up to these head coaches in question if they ever want to leave or not.
32. Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid
No NFL head coach has greater job security than Andy Reid. He has won three Super Bowls leading the Kansas City Chiefs and has been to two more. The greatest offensive mind of his generation also happens to be the ultimate players' coach. Although the Philadelphia Eagles did fire him at one point, that feels like a lifetime ago. Reid is getting up there in age, but he should be going out on his terms.
31. Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni
It may be in the heat of the moment, but Nick Sirianni has undeniable job security now several years into leading the Philadelphia Eagles. He has gone to a Super Bowl, lost, went back and beat the team who defeated him. Sirianni is quite cocky, but so is Philadelphia. He is the perfect head coach to lead this team. The only way he gets in trouble is if the does not have the right coordinators around him.
30. Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay
Sean McVay may be done winning Super Bowls, but he has become an institution since taking over the Los Angeles Rams in his early 30s nearly a decade ago. He has a Lombardi Trophy under his belt, and played for another. The Matthew Stafford era may be coming to an end soon. McVay may hang up the headset to be his generation's version of John Madden. I do not know how long he does this.
29. Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh
I have gone back and forth with this, but I group John Harbaugh in with these other three in that I fully get the sense he will be able to walk away on his own accord one day. However, the Baltimore Ravens need to get back to a Super Bowl and win one with Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback. Otherwise, it is a colossal waste of talent. Harbaugh is a great head coach, but this job runs itself.
Head coaches who would be hired immediately if fired, so do not do that!
These coaches do not have impenetrable job security, but firing them would be a fireable offense.
28. Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn
Dan Quinn is an elite defensive coordinator, but his second act as an NFL head coach has the potential to be better than his first. In his first year leading the Washington Commanders, he got them back to the NFC Championship. In year two leading the Atlanta Falcons, he got them to the Super Bowl. He must find the right successor to replace Kliff Kingsbury to make sure Jayden Daniels shines.
27. New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel
New England Patriots fans are still doing cartwheels in the streets after landing their former star linebacker and Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel this past offseason. He is the perfect combination of football savvy and being an alpha male to get the Patriots back to good one day. Tennessee firing him was so beyond moronic. Right now, New England would be to do the same.
26. Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell
One could argue Dan Campbell is the best thing to ever happen to the Detroit Lions, man. Truthfully, it is some combination of Sheila Ford Hamp taking over the team and having Campbell running it, alongside brilliant general manager Brad Holmes. While Campbell's emotional intelligence is off the charts, he has to replace both of his rockstar coordinators. Will he end up being exposed this year?
25. Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton
Sean Payton has the Denver Broncos right where he wants them. While his impromptu retirement from leading the New Orleans Saints was especially slimy, he does have Denver back in serious postseason conversations well ahead of his third year leading the team. As long as the team keeps on winning, he will have job security. If the team falters or Bo Nix stagnates, he could be out quickly.
24. Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell
Kevin O'Connell is every player's favorite head coach. He seems to put forth the necessary quiet confidence to be a great leader of men. As long as he is with the Minnesota Vikings, they should remain playoff-viable. My biggest concern is ownership seems to have put way too much trust in recently extended general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The J.J. McCarthy love is out of control!
First-year head coaches who will not be fired after 2025 for any reason
This may be their first opportunities to be a head coach, but I would be stunned if either got the ax.
23. Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson
At this juncture, Ben Johnson can do no wrong. The former offensive wunderkind of the Detroit Lions now takes over the dysfunctional Chicago Bears in division. Yes, he has Caleb Williams, but I do not trust Ryan Poles at all, and The McCaskeys still own this team. I am coming around on the idea that Johnson could make for a good head coach in Chicago, but he has to develop a second pitch here.
22. New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn
The reason I have Ben Johnson's former Detroit Lions colleague Aaron Glenn one spot ahead of him is optics. Even if it looks absolutely terrible in year one for him leading the New York Jets, Woody Johnson cannot fire him. Glenn was a rockstar coordinator in Detroit. He was a former star defensive back for Gang Green back in the day. This team could be halfway decent, but we must give him time.
Good coaches who could be ousted because they work for chaotic teams
These coaches know how to lead, or are at least great coordinators, but do we trust their teams?
21. Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh
Jim Harbaugh is an unrelenting ball of enthusiasm. Even in his early 60s, his childlike mannerisms make him such a polarizing coach. He has won big everywhere he has coached before. With him taking over one of his former teams in the Los Angeles Chargers, The Spanoses are expecting big things. There is also this. The Chargers can be screwy, and Harbaugh will quickly wear people out.
20. New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore
Nobody has a more thankless job in the NFL than first-time head coach Kellen Moore. The former Boise State boy wonder gets to lead the New Orleans Saints, arguably the worst team in the league entering this season. The franchise cannot possibly fire him, right? I doubt that Gayle Benson will, especially with offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier's son Garrett starring over at nearby LSU...
19. Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen
I am going to get out in front of this and say I do not think it will work with Liam Coen serving as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is too much of a nerd to really resonate with players on a deeper level. That being said, owner Shahid Khan has to know you cannot go one-and-done with Coen. Doug Pederson may have been cooked, but we will know after year two with Coen if he has it.
18. Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans
I had the hardest time figure out where I stand on DeMeco Ryans. He seems to be a great head coach and was a tremendous defensive coordinator in his post-playing career. Optically, firing Ryans would be terrible since he used to star for the Houston Texans back in the day. My concern is what happens if Houston does not take advantage of the rest of the division being dysfunctional? They have to win!
17. Las Vegas Raiders head coach Pete Carroll
Pete Carroll would not come back into the NFL in his mid-70s only to get fired leading a team after one season. While I am dubious of him being the one to turn the Las Vegas Raiders around, they will be better under his guidance. For the time being, I think he has staying power. My concern is owner Mark Davis tends to get trigger happy when it comes to firing general managers and head coaches.
Head coaches we like but might need to prove something this season
I would not be in favor of firing these head coaches, but there are situations where it could happen.
16. Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald
Mike Macdonald and I are from the same neck of the woods. We went to Georgia around the same time. He may be a little bit older than me, but I am rooting for him hard to be a great head coach with the Seattle Seahawks. I love that he seems to have gotten complete buy-in from his players. In the end, it is all about winning. I wonder if he has the right players and staff to make noise in the division.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles
No matter what happens this fall, Todd Bowles will be coaching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers again in 2026. He has emerged as more of the necessary CEO-type in his second go-around as an NFL head coach. Likeable, but a bit boring, it does not matter. Where I have concerns is if coaching attrition does a number to this roster. If the Buccaneers backslide in the NFC South, he will be scapegoated.
14. Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales
My love for Dave Canales as a coach grows by the day. That being said, I also know what team he coaches for. Even if Bryce Young does make strides in year three out of Alabama, there may be a finite ceiling to what he can do as a franchise quarterback. Even more concerning, we all know who the owner of the Carolina Panthers is. Nobody likes to meddle more than David Tepper in this league.
Playoff disappointments could bring to an end their impressive tenures
These head coaches could be judged by what they do in the playoffs. Will they get over the top?
13. Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor
For as long as Zac Taylor is under contract, he will remain the Cincinnati Bengals head coach. He has earned a ton of respect from me over the last few years by still winning anyway, no matter the challenges of working for a team owned by Mike Brown. That being said, this might be the last best year for the Bengals to win a Super Bowl with Joe Burrow and this core. Al Golden has to take flight!
12. Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott
Every time I watch the Buffalo Bills lose in heartbreaking fashion in the postseason under this current core, I always go back to the same internal debate. Is Sean McDermott the right head coach to get Josh Allen and company over the top? He seems to be a great culture builder and regular-season coach, yet in the postseason, his team shrinks because he shrinks. A bad playoff loss might be it now.
11. Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur
I might feel differently if Dan Quinn simply retained him in Atlanta. That being said, I really need to see some growth out of Matt LaFleur in the postseason for me to continue feeling great about him leading the Green Bay Packers. We know that he can get them there, but that is not good enough in Titletown. Jordan Love may not be Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre, but LaFleur has to close the gap.
Coaches in tough spots who may not get the benefit of the doubt, sadly
There are things about these coaches that I like, but it is even harder to like the situations they are in.
10. Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski
Kevin Stefanski is one of my favorite head coaches in the NFL. He brought some level of stability to the Cleveland Browns. Who even does that? While it has been an arduous chore to find and develop a franchise quarterback, he has performed way better than I expected. That being said, this team was terrible a season ago. We know that owner Jimmy Haslam can and will meddle, so keep that in mind.
9. Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer
I may be in the extreme minority that I am happy Brian Schottenheimer got his shot to lead his a team. Yes, the Son of Martyball was only going to ever lead the Dallas Cowboys after this past season for something I can only call Jerry Jones reasons, but he got it! Unfortunately, first it giveth and taketh away. If Jones does not like what he is seeing out of Schottenheimer, then Shawty's like a memory!
8. Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan
I was a huge fan of Brian Callahan as the former offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals. While I am glad he got his opportunity to lead the Tennessee Titans, I do not trust their ownership situation one bit. Amy Adams Strunk is just like her late father Bud Adams, the quintessential meddler. Even if Cam Ward has a bright future in Nashville, I struggle to see this being a happy Titans marriage.
Media turning against them will not help their cause if they do not win
A narrative is being written on these coaches. True or false, there will come a judgement day for them.
7. San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan
If the San Francisco 49ers fail to make the NFC playoffs in back-to-back years, it would not surprise me in the least if Kyle Shanahan was let go. He may have to make do with whatever wacky, weird and whimsical thing John Lynch decides in the war room, but coaching attrition is what may get the best of him. Shanahan also has a horrible reputation for shrinking on the biggest of stages. It all adds up.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin
I feel like I am beating a dead horse when I talk about Mike Tomlin. The Pittsburgh Steelers are still holding him in such high regard, but nobody else outside of Western Pennsylvania feels the same way about him. He won a Super Bowl on Bill Cowher's tailwinds with Kevin Colbert's players. That was nearly two decades ago. If the NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, so how about now?
It is really starting to feel like playoffs of bust for these head coaches
While a playoff appearance will give them some job security, missing out could result in a pink slip.
5. Arizona Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon
I am all-in on the Arizona Cardinals this season. While they may be my early pick to win the NFC West, they still have to go out and do it. To me, Jonathan Gannon and Monti Ossenfort have a great partnership I would love to see flourish in Greater Phoenix. That being said, the Bidwills still own the team. Michael Bidwill can be a bit of a meddler. If they fail to make the playoffs, that may be it for him.
4. Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris
This is the one I am most closely tied to and most heavily invested in. I wish it were not the case, but Raheem Morris has to lead the Atlanta Falcons to the postseason if he wants any real guarantees of getting a third year in charge in Flowery Branch. Another sub-.500 season may cost him and Terry Fontenot their jobs. I do not agree with it, but you cannot waste another year of Michael Penix Jr.
3. Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen
Ownership changes aside, I would not want to be Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard after another dismal season of Indianapolis Colts football. In the wake of Jim Irsay's passing, his three daughters are now in charge. They did not hire Steichen and Ballard. Their late father did. I would venture to guess anyone on the Colts is on a short leash this season, especially Steichen as the head coach.
The hottest seats in the NFL right now, and for debatably good reasons
A lot can change between now and then, but I would be shocked to see either getting another year.
2. Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel
I feel really bad for Mike McDaniel. He should not be in this spot, but like Darius Rucker once sang, the Miami Dolphins make people cry. This team has not won a playoff game since the days of the hanging chad. If Miami fails to make the playoffs, that might be the end of the line for not only McDaniel, but also general manager Chris Grier. It is so hard to be in on a team quarterbacked by Tua Tagovailoa...
1. New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll
Brian Daboll is on an island by himself. It is not Staten Island, Long Island or even Ellis Island. If one NFL head coach is fired after this season, it is undeniably him. I do not know how Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen convinced the New York Giants ownership group that they deserved another year on the job, but here we are. Jaxson Dart could be spectactular, but Daboll needs to go already.