The Indiana Fever are the No. 6 seed in the WNBA playoff picture right now, but they're only a half-game ahead of the No. 8 seed Golden State Valkyries. That makes Sunday's game between the two teams very, very important for both teams, because being the No. 8 seed is a true death sentence this year.
You can make an argument that if the Fever get Caitlin Clark back, they could upset four of the five teams they could theoretically face in the first round. The only one you don't want to face? Yeah, Minnesota. I don't need to, like, avoid a spoiler here. If you follow the WNBA, you obviously know where this is going.
If we assume that the current teams seeded first through fifth stay in those spots in some order and that Indiana, Golden State and Seattle finish sixth through eighth in some order, then who would the Fever most — and least — want to face?
In order from easiest matchup to hardest, let's rank the Fever's potential first-round matchups.
5. Atlanta Dream
Look, I'm fully prepared to be wrong here like I've been wrong about the Dream all year, but I just don't think I trust this team in a playoff series.
Despite the team's success, it still feels like Atlanta could be figured out over a three-game series. I love what Naz Hillmon has done this year when it comes to just completely reinventing her game to fit in this Karl Smesko system, and Te-Hina Paopao's shooting ability has been huge for the Dream, but neither player is playoff-tested.
Indiana's ability to play small has been negated a bit because of the Sophie Cunningham injury, but if Clark is back for the playoffs, the team could do some small ball with Aerial Powers at the four, plus Natasha Howard is versatile enough that the Dream likely can't get away with putting both Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones on the floor together.
4. Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury's biggest issue heading into the playoffs is going to be wear and tear, as the team continues to play its star players some pretty heavy minutes rather than get rookies Kathryn Westbeld and Lexi Held — both of whom played well to start the season — out on the floor.
Add in that the Fever will be extra motivated to beat DeWanna Bonner and that Alyssa Thomas' style of play hasn't been proven to be super effective in the playoffs — since her 2022 breakout, her numbers have been worse in the playoffs than the regular season in three of the four seasons — and the Mercury are certainly a candidate to be upset early on.
3. New York Liberty
This is not New York's year. Injury after injury have prevented this team from reaching its full potential and have made a repeat title much less likely than it should have been.
If these injury concerns linger into the playoffs, the Fever would probably be thrilled to play New York, but with Breanna Stewart finally back, the Liberty should be viewed as the favorites. And if Sabrina Ionescu is back as well, hey should be viewed as the heavy, heavy favorites.
But of all the five options here, New York feels the most likely to encounter more injury bugs between now and the end of a theoretical three-game series. Maybe at full strength, Indiana wouldn't have a chance, but the fact that New York has spent so much of the year not at full strength lands the team third on this list.
2. Las Vegas Aces
No team is hotter right now than Vegas, which has won 12 games in a row to go from a fringe playoff team all the way to the No. 2 seed. It's been a miraculous turnaround for the two-time champions.
The only thing that might concern me about the Aces come playoff time is how Kierstan Bell holds up in the starting unit. She's done a good job there since Jewell Loyd was moved to the bench, which has really unlocked things for Vegas. But Bell's no sure thing, and the Aces could be forced to go back to heavier minutes for Loyd. This regular season shows that Loyd in the starting five could completely derail this team.
Still, even if that scenario came to pass, A'ja Wilson is playing at such an incredible level right now, and while Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard are a really great frontcourt combo, even they might not be capable of slowing Vegas down.
Then again, Indiana won two of the three times these teams met this season. Those were different days than the ones we're in now, with Vegas going nuclear over the past month, but a Clark-less Fever team taking down Vegas back on July 24 should give Indiana some small level of confidence.
1. Minnesota Lynx
Duh. No one wants to play the Lynx.
Maybe Vegas is playing better basketball at the moment than Minnesota is, but the full body of work for the Lynx this year shows why they're the title favorites.
And the matchups between these two teams show why the Fever wouldn't want to face the Lynx in a theoretical one-eight matchup.
The Fever have at least one win over 11 of the 13 teams in the WNBA. The two they don't? Golden State and Minnesota. The Valkyries one might just be a weird anomaly, but Indiana being 0-2 against the Lynx with one more meeting still to come feels real. The Fever scored well enough in those games, but they just couldn't slow Minnesota down at all, allowing an average of 96.0 points per game in the two meetings.
Getting their first win over the Valkyries on Sunday would he huge, because it would help Indiana avoid what looks like a near-certain first-round exit.