Giannis Antetokounmpo's fall from Mount Olympus came swiftly, but we shouldn't be surprised. The end never arrives quietly for NBA contenders. Sometimes it sneaks in on aging knees and expiring contracts. Other times, it crashes through the ceiling. For the Milwaukee Bucks, the signal came in the form of Damian Lillard’s torn Achilles and another bitter early playoff exit. This season featured several sobering moments for a franchise that years ago raised the Larry O'Brien Trophy four years ago.
Now, all signs point toward the inevitable. Antetokounmpo’s days in Milwaukee may be numbered. According to Shams Charania, the two-time MVP is open to a trade this offseason. In NBA jargon, that’s as loud as a farewell horn.
What follows could determine the Bucks' trajectory for the next decade. They must strike the balance between honoring the legacy of a generational player and setting themselves up for a sustainable future. For Milwaukee general manager Jon Horst, the decisions he makes this summer will define the franchise’s next chapter
Milwaukee pushed every chip to the center for Lillard, sacrificing long-term flexibility for a superstar pairing meant to keep their championship window open. That window slammed shut when injuries and defensive shortcomings turned their season into a slow-motion collapse.
Antetokounmpo, 30, remains in his athletic prime, still the most imposing paint presence in the league. But after years of pushing against the limits of a small-market roster and a rotating cast of co-stars, the Bucks face the hard truth. It’s time for a reset.
To come out on the other side of this without egg on their faces, Milwaukee must navigate the complexities of a market where the value of picks are inflated, and win a complex chess match.
The dreamers imagine a pairing akin to Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic in Denver, but the reality is more complicated, Milwaukee has to feel like they’re setting themselves up with a nest egg for the future with this deal. Denver ain’t happening. Neither is New York, which surrendered its most valuable picks to Brooklyn in a haul for Mikal Bridges last summer.
Any trade offered to Milwaukee won’t occur in a vacuum. It will be compared to trade offers from other teams. Horst has to showcase some creativity this offseason. Being a trade Picasso is going to require him to get creative and remain analytical. This is going to be a busy offseason for the Bucks. Not all trade offers are created equal. A blockbuster deal for Antetokounmpo must deliver both future promise and tangible assets. Here are the most compelling packages in play.
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs
Assets: Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, future first-round picks, San Antonio's 2025 No. 2 pick
San Antonio’s pick swaps weren't as promising as Houston’s--until the NBA Draft Lottery. The No. 2 pick would easily be enough to sway Milwaukee into trading Antetokounmpo to the Spurs. They also don’t have the urgency which may impact how much they’re willing to surrender. Devin Vassell is an emerging two-way wing that can shoot the rock. Vasell excels in creating deflections and his 6-foot-10 wingspan gives other guards fits.
Stephon Castle won Rookie of the Year after De’Aaron Fox was lost for the season, but when Fox was healthy, he became a redundancy. His jump shot is still under construction. Castle is a strong piece, but one that can serve as the cornerstone of their rebuild. He’s a 6-foot-6 initiator who can also serve as a lockdown defender. However, the linchpin here is that second-overall pick. If San Antonio sees this as an opportunity to immediately take advantage of Wemby's window, a package involving that second pick and Castle would be a winning combo that benefits both teams.
No. 2 Houston Rockets
Assets: Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard, Phoenix 2027 first-round pick
The Rockets are in the best position to make a godfather offer after finishing with the second-best record in the Western Conference this season. Horst will be tempted to bite on a one-dimensional, score-first slasher if they get offered Jalen Green. He shouldn’t even be allowed to get baited into a deal involving Green. Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Reed Sheppard, and the Phoenix 2027 first-round pick are the gems of that deal. Jabari Smith was relegated to the bench this season but showed flashes in their seven-game series against Houston.
The crown jewel may be Reed Sheppard, the dynamic Kentucky product who flashes shades of young Damian Lillard with his combination of range, poise, and defensive activity. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns' first-round pick in 2027 or the Nets pick swap could yield them a promising lottery pick next offseason.
No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder
Assets: Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Nikola Topic, Aaron Wiggins, multiple first-round picks.
Sending Antetokounmpo to the Thunder would cede the league to Oklahoma City for the next half-decade. The last time a superstar linked up with a team of Oklahoma City’s caliber was nine years ago when Kevin Durant jumped ship for the Golden State Warriors. In terms of packages, Oklahoma City is a rare team that could offer a cargo ship worth of picks and young talent without gutting their roster.
If anything, Sam Presti needs to dump assets. They can’t afford to pay Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Hartenstein, and their young pieces in the long term. Nikola Topic has fallen off of the casual fan's radar, but prior to his torn ACL, he was a 6-foot-6 point guard speculated as a potential No. 1 pick in the 2024 class. They also have a surplus of picks still. It may be time to consolidate resources into a single, galaxy-beating superstar.
Oklahoma City would not be trading all of their pieces, but for the Bucks Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren would be the linchpins. Holmgren is a mobile, floor-spacing, shot-swatting big who can easily play on the floor alongside Antetokounmpo. On the other hand, Presti may have learned his lesson 13 years ago when he moved James Harden in a deal with Houston and watched him become one of the greatest offensive playmakers of this generation.
If Presti is unwilling to deal Williamsor Holmgren in a package, the Bucks have the leverage to move on. Of course, all this is contingent on what happens with the Thunder in the playoffs. If they advance to the Finals or win a Larry O’Brien Trophy outright, Presti may be content to sit pat and let the youngest team in the NBA mature into a potential dynasty.
No. 4 Detroit Pistons
Assets: Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey, Ron Holland, Tobias Harris’ bag of money, 2025 and 2027 Atlanta Hawks first-round picks
Detroit is another up-and-coming team that has a litany of players who can be enticing to Milwaukee as assets. Duren is a conventional rim-running big who will only get better as time goes on. Ron Holland is a high-upside rookie who didn’t play much this season. When he did, he showcased a raw game on the offensive side. Meanwhile, Ivey is recovering from a fractured fibula. Harris possesses a contract that would grease this deal through the NBA’s salary cap contract matching bylaws.
A package involving Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey, Ron Holland, Tobias Harris’ contract, and future firsts would pair Antetokounmpo with Cade Cunningham, the premier jumbo playmaker this side of Luka Doncic. Unfortunately, the Pistons aren’t as deep as the Rockets. They were only the sixth seed in the East although they picked up steam in the second half of the season.
Would that pairing be enough to overtake the Knicks, Celtics, and Cavaliers? Hopping onto the Pistons' timeline is a risk for Antetkounmpo to take. It remains to be seen if it’s one he would be willing to make. Overall though, none of these pieces should excite the Bucks.