Ranking the most likely landing spots for Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki

The Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's NPB announced Saturday morning that they are beginning the process of posting 23-year-old ace Roki Sasaki, meaning the star right-hander will soon be coming to MLB.

Any team would be ecstatic to land Sasaki this offseason. Due to his age, teams will only be able to use their international bonus pool money to sign him which, in theory, levels the playing field; unlike Yoshinobu Yamamoto, no team will be priced out of the bidding, and all 30 clubs could use a pitcher with ace-caliber stuff who's yet to enter his prime.

The 2024 international bonus pool period does not end until December 15. Currently, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles have the most money available, but that does not mean other teams cannot trade assets to acquire more money from other teams. And if the posting process isn't completed by December 15, Sasaki would be signed as a part of the 2025 class, meaning every team would have its maximum allotment of money to spend.

It is clear that Sasaki has his pick of MLB teams, but while there are no financial frontrunners, there are definitely a few favorites before bidding begins. Here are the five most likely landing spots for Sasaki's services.

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5. San Diego Padres

With only $2,200 of international bonus pool money remaining in 2024, the San Diego Padres only have a real chance at landing Sasaki if he is posted in the 2025 class. Then they would have $6,261,600 in international bonus pool money available.

The Padres are looking to shore up their starting pitching after several key pieces left, and signing Sasaki for under $7 million will allow them to be aggressive at other positions throughout free agency. Sasaki is known to be close with Padres pitcher Yu Darvish who could help convince his fellow countryman to sign with San Diego, and Southern California has a long track record of wooing Japanese stars thanks to the ease of travel back home.

4. Baltimore Orioles

While the Orioles would prefer that Sasaki is posted in 2024 so they only have to compete with the Dodgers on available money, they will have $6,908,600 available in 2025, meaning they have a legitimate chance either way.

Sasaki represents a potential long-term pitching solution for the Orioles, an ideal replacement for Corbin Burnes and partner for Grayson Rodriguez, and they have the money to make a deal happen. But the team has only ever signed two Japanese players in their history, and that will likely be a huge turn-off for Sasaki.

3. Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs recently sent president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to Japan on a scouting trip to show Sasaki's camp that they mean business. And why wouldn't they? Chicago wants a rotation upgrade but doesn't want to spend for Burnes, Max Fried or Blake Snell, and Sasaki fits the bill perfectly. Plus, the team's recent success with Japanese players including Shota Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki will likely help their case with Sasaki.

2. New York Mets

Like the Cubs, the New York Mets sent president David Stearns on a scouting trip to Japan, and they have $6,261,600 of international bonus pool money available in 2025. The Mets are currently desperate for pitching and will be willing to do whatever it takes to convince Sasaki to come to New York, including trading for extra international bonus pool money. Cohen got beat out for Yoshinobu Yamamoto's services last winter, and he's extra motivated to build on this year's success in free agency.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Okay, let's be realistic. Looking at all of Sasaki's options was a fun exercise, but the Dodgers are the clear frontrunner. It usually takes a few weeks for a player to officially be posted, and there is still over a month before the December 15 deadline for the 2024 pool, so it seems most likely that Sasaki will be part of the 2024 class. That means the Dodgers have the most remaining money to work with at $2,502,500.

If the most money is not enough to convince Sasaki, the Dodgers have two of his former World Baseball Classic teammates in Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto and, if that is not enough, they are coming off a championship and are poised to be competitive for years to come.

With that being said, the Dodgers are really hoping he is part of the 2024 class because with only $5,146,200 in 2025, they are tied for the least amount of international pool money. Even if Sasaki is a part of the 2025 class, the Dodgers are a very attractive destination and they could always pull off a trade to increase their allotment.