Red Flags: 5 college football teams on upset alert in Week 9

Some college football fans have said that Week 9 is a bit of letdown considering what we've had on the docket the past two weeks and what we have coming next week. But here's the lesson I'll keep preaching: These types of weeks are the ones wherein every team should be on upset alert. There are dangerous spots all over the schedule and AP Top 25 ranked teams are going to fall.

As always, we try to keep ourselves to five upset picks on the board for the week. So we're having to leave out No. 5 Texas going on the road to upset-minded Vanderbilt. We also have to mark the likes of Penn State and SMU going on the road to Wisconsin and Duke, respectively, as safe, even if an upset is still in play. And UCF might knock off BYU but the Knights are actually favored, so that game is disqualified.

So where do we go for our upset picks this week? We're putting these five ranked teams on upset alert because the Red Flags are far too strong to ignore.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 13-22

5. Boise State Broncos

Opponent: at UNLV | Time: Friday, Oct. 25, 10:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN) | Spread: BOIS -3.5

Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos have been all but penciled into the College Football Playoff as the Group of 5 champion. And to be clear, there's good reason for that. This team's one loss on the season was a back-and-forth shootout with the No. 1-ranked team in the country, Oregon. That's a pretty good resumé even if the level of competition overall hasn't totally been there for the Broncos.

However, Friday night's trip to Sin City could be a tricky one. By all measures, UNLV is the biggest competition for Boise in the Mountain West and potentially in the G5 for that Playoff spot. The Rebels moving to Hajh-Malik Williams at quarterback after some drama has opened up the offense for Barry Odom's team even more and they should find plenty of success against a still-suspect Broncos defense.

At the same time, the Rebels defense has been able to be had with explosive run plays, which is probably not what you want when Jeanty is in the opposing backfield. But this game definitely appears to have the makings of a shootout. UNLV being at home for such a game could make them primed to pull off a big upset and throw the G5 College Football Playoff picture even more on its head.

4. Indiana Hoosiers

Opponent: Washington | Time: Saturday, Oct. 25, Noon ET (BTN) | Spread: IND -6.5

In a vacuum, Indiana would be a team that I'd absolutely be comfortable leaving off of our Week 9 upset picks. Part of that is a credit to Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers, especially coming off of beating down Nebraska a week ago. However, another part of that is Washington being slightly above average but perhaps nothing more in Jedd Fisch's first season in Seattle. Yes, they're good but they also don't have much of a ceiling, or at least so it has seemed.

Here's the rub, however: Indiana losing Kurtis Rourke for this game has me questioning whether or not this could be a disaster spot for the Hoosiers. Tayven Jackson, who was usurped in last year's quarterback battle in Bloomington, will be the starter. He was fine late against Nebraska, but what about in a game that isn't him walking into a big lead? There are deserved questions there.

My gut tells me that Indiana is still experienced and well-coached enough to scheme up a win and hopefully get Rourke back for a showdown with Michigan. Having said that, I can't shake the feeling that Indiana could also be in trouble in this matchup with the way things have shaken out.

3. Oregon Ducks

Opponent: 20 Illinois | Time: Saturday, Oct. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: ORE -21.5

Make no mistake, there are a lot of things working against Illinois as they enter their highest-profile matchup of the season. The Illini not only have to face the No. 1 team in the country who had a long week after playing last Friday but they have to travel quite literally across most of the United States to get to Eugene and a raucous Autzen Stadium to do so. Again, not a lot going in Illinois' favor there.

Having said that, I'm still putting Oregon on upset alert, which starts with how much I respect Bret Bielema as a head coach. I think he's one of the best game-planners in college football and the success that Illinois has had this year is a testament to that. The Illini are less talented than the Ducks but they will have a gameplan on deck to be able to try and close that gap. That's what you're looking for, especially when Illinois' pass defense and passing offense could at least cause some speedbumps for Dan Lanning's team in this one.

The spread for this one is a hook over three touchdowns, so that tells you how truly likely an upset is. However, Illinois is being a bit disrespected by that line given how good they've been this season, so on principle, give me Bert's Boys with a shot to knock off the top-ranked team in college football.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Opponent: 21 Missouri | Time: Saturday, Oct. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: ALA -16.5

Based on the one game against College Football Playoff-caliber competition that we've seen from Missouri, there are plenty of people rightfully looking at Eli Drinkwitz and his team and thinking that this team doesn't have a chance as they make the trip to Tuscaloosa. Here's the problem, though: How sure are we that we should be trusting Alabama at this point in time?

The last three games for the Crimson Tide have not been very Nick Saban-esque. Bama first got knocked off by Vanderbilt, nearly (and probably should have) lost to South Carolina, and then lost a rockfight to rival Tennessee. Not exactly a banner run for Kalen DeBoer but there are reasons for it. The defense continues to look leaky and undisciplined, Jalen Milroe doesn't look 100% healthy and this team still can't run the ball.

Now, is Mizzou a panacea for all of these issues with Alabama, especially with quarterback Brady Cook likely to miss this game? That's certainly a realistic possibility. But with the Tide favored by 16.5 points, I'm going to give the Tigers some credit. I don't trust either of these teams in the slightest right now, so let me take a swing on the heavy underdog causing some chaos.

1. Texas A&M Aggies

Opponent: 8 LSU | Time: Saturday, Oct. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TAMU -2.5

The oddsmakers clearly believe that homefield is going to make a difference on Saturday night in College Station because Texas A&M, despite being ranked lower in the AP Top 25 than ranked LSU, is the favorite at Kyle Field for this primetime matchup. But really, this one consistently breaks down like a toss-up for me, which is wildly entertaining for a proverbial College Football Playoff play-in game that we'll have in front of us.

Both Texas A&M and LSU lost their season-openers and haven't fallen since. They're unbeaten in SEC play and have shown big-time improvement throughout the season. LSU's defense has taken a leap forward in recent weeks, Texas A&M's offense found some life with the return of Conner Weigman, and so on.

For me, though, I still don't trust Weigman, certainly not as much as I trust Garrett Nussmeier for the Tigers. And the big factor with that is that this Aggies defense, though talented, is no facing by far the best passing offense they've seen this season. That could be tough for them to match if they don't have answers — something we've seen in the SEC already this year — and Kyle Field might not be enough to stave off LSU pulling off the upset.