The Sweet 16 has arrived, but it comes with a very not-sweet caveat, as USC star JuJu Watkins tore her ACL in Monday's second-round win over Mississippi State. The Trojans still took care of business in the 96-59 win, but losing the brightest star in women's college basketball at such a crucial time will cast a pall over the rest of the tournament.
With USC's best player gone, where do the Trojans stack up against the rest of the remaining 16 teams in the Sweet 16 field?
Let's re-rank all the remaining teams heading into the Sweet 16.
1. UCLA
No change at the top. The team that earned the top overall seed heading into the tournament remains in that spot after beating Southern and Richmond. Maybe the win over the Spiders wasn't quite as lopsided as you'd like to see from the No. 1 team, but the Bruins remain the best team and still have that head-to-head win over South Carolina to fall back on when ranking the two teams.
2. South Carolina
After doing its normal thing in the first round — destroying a 16 seed by 60 points — South Carolina had a little more trouble finding its footing offensively in the second round, but the defense showed up in a 64-53 win over Indiana.
3. Texas
The Longhorns have yet to be threatened in this tournament. William & Mary had it close for one quarter, but Texas turned on the jets to win 105-61, then completely shut down Illinois in the second round, winning 65-48. This defense can lock down any opponent.
4. UConn
Because they play in the Big East, we never really know how good the Huskies are until March. Sure, they play one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, but without seeing them play SEC or Big Ten caliber schools night after night, it's hard to know what UConn can do.
But this year's Huskies team came into opening weekend and proved its a title contender. In the first round, UConn beat Arkansas State 103-34, just suffocating the Red Wolves. But the more telling game was against South Dakota State, the nation's best mid-major. The Jackrabbits didn't stand a chance, losing 91-57.
And with UConn in the same regional as USC, the Watkins injury has now cleared the path for another UConn Final Four appearance.
5. Notre Dame
When Notre Dame fell to a No. 3 seed, the collective response was "huh," because while the Irish struggled a bit near the end of the year, their overall resume screamed No. 2 seed.
Well, one weekend into the tournament and I'm ready to declare that Notre Dame is at least the fifth-best team left, and it wouldn't shock me at all to see them come out of their regional. The Irish just dominated Michigan from the tip in the second round, winning 76-55 to set up a Sweet 16 game with TCU.
6. USC
No JuJu Watkins, no problem against Mississippi State, but the path forward gets a lot more complicated with her out.
Kiki Iriafen, who was once viewed as a potential No. 2 overall pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft before her stock dropped a little, will have to step up and prove she can be the best player on a championship team. In the second round, she certainly looked the part as she scored 36 points in the rout of the Bulldogs.
But other players will need to step up as well for the Trojans to win the 2025 championship, including Talia von Oelhoffen and Rayah Marshall.
7. NC State
The Wolfpack have shown they deserved the No. 2 seed, destroying Michigan State in the second round 83-49. That came after a 20-point win in the first round against Vermont. The trio of Saniya Rivers, Aziaha James and Madison Hayes is going to be tough for any team to defend.
8. Duke
After destroying Lehigh in the first round, Duke faced a surprisingly tough Oregon team in the second round, squeaking out a 59-53 win. Despite how close the Ducks made that one, Duke's been on a roll recently, winning eight in a row and looking poised for an Elite Eight appearance as it gets set to face a UNC squad that it's already beaten once this season.
9. TCU
TCU just isn't winning like a No. 2 seed should. The 73-51 win over Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round was closer than it should have been, and the second round game against Louisville was a comfortable Horned Frogs win but maybe not quite as impressive as you'd like to see.
Despite being a No. 2 seed, TCU has to be viewed as the underdog heading into the Sweet 16 game against Notre Dame.
10. LSU
Alright, it's time to admit I was wrong about something. I really expected Florida State to comfortably upset LSU, because I didn't believe the Tigers could slow Ta'Niya Latson down.
Instead, LSU won by 30. Kim Mulkey's squad is really good, though they're still 0-3 against teams with a top 10 Her Hoop Stats rating this season, so I'm hesitant to be too high on the Tigers.
11. Oklahoma
Look: you need a good defense to win a championship, so the Sooners probably aren't lasting too much longer. But on the other hand...what if they do?
The Sooners just throttled Iowa on Monday, winning 96-62. I watched the game at a brewery in Des Moines and there was a group of elderly Iowa fans there, drinking Moscow Mules and cheering on their Hawkeyes, but the Sooners had such control of the game that the women all left in the third quarter, shaking their heads as they exited.
With Raegan Beers in the middle and a plethora of scorers around her, Oklahoma is one of the toughest offenses to stop in the country.
12. North Carolina
The Tarheels don't have the most impressive team on paper, ranking just 31st in the country in net rating, but they make up for that by knowing how to play defense.
UNC held both Oregon State and West Virginia under 50 pints on the first weekend of the tournament, flexing the team's ability to lock down any opponent. That task gets much harder in the Sweet 16 against Duke though.
13. Kansas State
Kansas State lands ahead of the other No. 5 seeds and the one remaining No. 4 seed for one simple reason: Ayoka Lee.
Lee returned from a foot injury and looked like her usual self, albeit in reduced minutes. After leading a dominant rout of Fairfield in the first round, Lee and the Wildcats took down a very good Kentucky team in overtime in the second round.
14. Maryland
Maryland's biggest issue going forward might just be exhaustion after the team played a double-overtime against Alabama.
That game highlighted another issue with this team, which is its defensive woes. Sarah Ashlee Barker went OFF for Bama and it took some clutch Maryland shotmaking to get the win. Overall, the Terps rank 296th imn scoring defense though — it's hard to win the tournament with those type of numbers.
15. Tennessee
After struggling down the stretch, Tennessee had an impressive opening weekend, beginning with a 101-66 win over South Florida. The Bulls aren't an elite team, but that was still an eye-opening score.
Then in the second round, Tennessee upset No. 4 seed Ohio State, winning 82-67. I'm a little more confident in the Lady Vols now, but it's also still a fact that the team lost three of its final four games before the NCAA Tournament. That has to remain factored into any analysis of Tennessee.
16. Ole Miss
There were a number of people who thought Ole Miss deserved to host. I didn't see it, but I'm ready to admit that I was slightly wrong after the Rebels beat Baylor in Waco in the second round, winning 69-63.
The Rebels are still probably the weakest team remaining, but that doesn't mean they can't upset UCLA. It'll be tough, but it's within the realm of possibilities.
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