NBA schedules are sometimes quirky. Cross-conference tilts happen only twice per season and, while some intraconference matchups happen only three times, division rivals square off on four occasions within an 82-game season. For the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic, that is particularly relevant as the final week of the 2024-25 regular season arrives.
In a bizarre twist, the Hawks and Magic did not meet at all until Feb. 10 in what was the 54th game of an 82-game season for the Hawks. Then, Atlanta and Orlando met again just 10 days later for a quick rematch, only to then pause for nearly two months before facing off. In some circumstances, this interesting schedule may have been ignored or forgotten but, this season, the Hawks and Magic are very clearly battling for playoff positioning.
In fact, the Hawks and Magic are separated by only one game in the standings with four games to play, and the two teams are also jockeying for the Southeast Division title. With that said, the Hawks and Magic meet twice more and, given the nature of the Play-In Tournament, Atlanta and Orlando might turn around and face each other again just a few days later in the No. 7 and No. 8 matchup. In fact, that is the single most likely scenario, adding a bit of extra zest to Tuesday's matchup between the teams in Orlando.
The season series between the Hawks and Magic
Appropriately, the Hawks and Magic split the first two matchups. Atlanta won the first meeting by six points, and Orlando returned serve in winning the return battle ... by six points. As such, the Hawks and Magic have tied over the course of 96 minutes.
The overall tenor of the first two games leaned slightly to Orlando, in that each team scored approximately 1.1 points per possession in a pair of relatively slow-paced affairs. Atlanta would much prefer to play uptempo basketball, while Orlando plays at the league's slowest pace and with a top-tier defense.
Keys to the upcoming meetings
The aforementioned pace could dictate game flow for the Hawks and Magic, in that whichever team can dictate might have an advantage. For Atlanta, there are also two clear areas of emphasis and potential vulnerability.
On offense, ball security has been an issue for the Hawks this season. Atlanta turns the ball over on 14.9 percent of offensive possessions, ranking in the bottom third of the NBA. That is dangerous against an Orlando team that currently ranks No. 2 in the NBA in creating a turnover on 16.7 percent of defensive possessions, and Atlanta will need to avoid disaster in this area.
On the other end, the Magic rely (very) heavily on free throw creation. Orlando's offensive issues are well-documented, as the Magic are the only non-tanking team that ranks in the bottom quartile of the NBA in overall offensive efficiency. However, the Magic average more than 23 free throw attempts per game and rank in the top three of the NBA in free throw rate. Since the All-Star break, the Hawks are No. 27 in the NBA in free throw rate allowed on defense, and keeping the Magic away from the charity stripe has to be an emphasis.
What about the tiebreakers?
Simply put, the Hawks have a bit more urgency to the two remaining matchups than the Magic do. Part of that is the reality that Orlando has a one-game lead with four to play, but the Magic also have the inside track toward a tiebreaker advantage. Orlando is 11-3 against Southeast Division opponents, while Atlanta is just 9-5. The only remaining division games are head-to-head, so the Hawks would need to sweep the Magic to neutralize Orlando's tiebreaker edge. Obviously, Atlanta would also have an overall leg up if they were to sweep Orlando, but if the Hawks lose on Tuesday, they will effectively be three games back with three games to play when including Orlando's tiebreaker advantage.
Bottom line
If the Hawks want the No. 7 seed and a Southeast Division crown, they need to win on Tuesday. Crucially, Atlanta is not eliminated with a loss, but the odds shift dramatically in Orlando's favor if the Magic win Tuesday's meeting. If Atlanta wins, the two teams will be tied with three games remaining and, with the season finale happening at State Farm Arena on Sunday, the Hawks could have the overall edge.