The Houston Rockets were no match for Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs, but they're clearly on the upswing. They went from a 22-win season two years ago to 41-41 last year and a 52-30 record this year that earned them the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.
The Rockets are teeming with recent high-lottery picks and valuable draft capital, including three fully unprotected first-round picks from the Phoenix Suns over the next half decade. If they continue along their current trajectory, they could be one of the Oklahoma City Thunder's biggest threats in the West for the next few years.
However, nothing is guaranteed for teams on the rise. Look no further than the Memphis Grizzlies, who seemed like one of the NBA's most promising young squads a few years ago. They're now facing existential questions about whether to continue building around Ja Morant as a franchise cornerstone.
It's unclear whether the Rockets even have that type of player on their current roster. Alperen Şengün earned his first All-Star nod this year and has drawn Nikola Jokić comparisons thanks to his passing ability for a big man, but he still has a ways to go before reaching Jokić's level. Jalen Green is unstoppable as a scorer some nights and can't buy a bucket on others. Amen Thompson looks like a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but he still needs to make strides on offense after shooting only 27.5 percent from deep this season.
That lack of a clear No. 1 option could motivate the Rockets to go perusing the trade market this offseason. In mid-April, ESPN's Shams Charania said the Rockets and Suns forward Kevin Durant "have a level of mutual interest" and warned to "monitor them" if they got knocked out of the playoffs early.
Even at the age of 36, Durant remains one of the NBA's most feared scorers. He averaged 26.6 points per game this season—his 16th straight season (!) with at least 25 points per game—while shooting 52.7 percent overall and 43.0 percent from three-point range. He'd give the Rockets a go-to option on offense, particularly in half-court settings or in crunch time. Durant's spindly 6'11" frame and long arms have made him one of the league's premier mid-range assassins throughout his career.
Durant would undoubtedly improve the Rockets' short-term outlook. But if they're looking to go all-in this offseason, they should have their sights set on even bigger prizes at first.
The Rockets' endgame
Last June, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the Rockets eventually wanted to trade for Durant, which is why they traded control of the Brooklyn Nets' next two first-round picks for future Suns picks. However, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein has been emphatic that the Houston's "interest in Durant has been overstated from the jump."
The Rockets "intend to prioritize timeline considerations as much as talent and fit when they do make their next major trade," Stein reported in November. In February, he added that the Rockets' front office wanted to see how their young players fared in the playoffs before they made "further evaluations."
"To try to expedite the process by going out and getting one piece now is kind of doing a disservice to what we all talked about coming into it," Rockets head coach Ime Udoka recently told ESPN's Tim MacMahon. "That's our vision, and I think the playoffs this year will give us a good picture of that and put guys in different situations and high-pressure situations to see how they react to it."
The series against the Warriors could be illuminating in that regard. Şengün took advantage of the Warriors' lack of frontcourt size and led the Rockets in points (20.9), rebounds (11.9) and assists (5.3) per game throughout the series. Meanwhile, Green erupted for 38 points on 13-of-25 shooting (52.0 percent) in Game 2, but he scored only 47 points on 16-of-53 shooting (30.2 percent) across the other six games of the series.
The Rockets signed both Şengün and Green to extensions last fall, but the structure of their respective deals spoke volumes. Şengün received a five-year, $185 million extension, whereas Green received a three-year, $106 million deal that made him "the first NBA player ever to successfully negotiate a 2-plus-1 rookie extension on a nine-figure deal," according to Charania. While Charania tried to spin that as a positive (to continue currying favor with Green's agents), it signaled that the Rockets weren't as sold on Green as a part of their long-term future as Şengün. The Warriors series likely did nothing to change that.
Unless the Rockets pick up their $44.9 million team option on Fred VanVleet, they'll likely have to include Green ($33.3 million) as the main salary component of a blockbuster trade. They'd otherwise have to include at least three of Dillon Brooks ($21.1 million), Jabari Smith Jr. ($12.4 million) and Reed Sheppard ($10.6 million) to get into the salary range of most stars. If the Rockets aren't sold on Sheppard's readiness to step into the starting lineup, that could push them to pursue a 2-guard as Green's replacement.
Suns guard Devin Booker would be the logical solution, especially since the Rockets could send the Suns' own picks back to Phoenix. Ahead of this year's trade deadline, one NBA executive to Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix that "unless you are calling [the Rockets] about Booker," they were "not interested" in making a move at the time. However, Suns governor Mat Ishbia has been emphatic about his plans to keep building around Booker, which could make that moot for now.
The entire league is monitoring whether Giannis Antetokounmpo has lost his patience with the Milwaukee Bucks after their third straight first-round playoff exit. However, the Bucks have already traded away control of their first-round picks through 2030, which means they have no incentive to tank even if they do trade the Greek Freak. The Rockets could offer them a package loaded with future Suns picks and some of their young prospects (Green, Sheppard, Smith, Tari Eason, etc.), although the Bucks might be inclined to loop in the New Orleans Pelicans to get control of their next two first-rounders back as well.
The Rockets could be holding out hope that the Denver Nuggets' dysfunction causes Nikola Jokić to develop a wandering eye, too. They could put together a package centered around Şengün that might be hard for the Nuggets to refuse, particularly if Jokić declines to sign an extension this offseason.
Rockets general manager Rafael Stone recently told MacMahon that they have "a very high bar to do a transaction that changes things." Patrick Fertitta, the son of team governor Tilman Fertitta, added that "even though it can be exciting to feel like you are as close as you may be, it's important to move with the same level of patience that got us to where we are and to make sure that we're always making decisions based on not just today but the future. Because we never want to value the near term over the long term."
Trading for Durant would almost assuredly bolster the Rockets' short-term outlook, but they're right to be focused on the long term given the age of their young core. If they could land a younger star like Antetokounmpo, Booker or Jokić, they might have the foundation for sustainable success throughout the rest of the decade.