Fred VanVleet’s contributions in Houston have been crucial in turning the Rockets around. Signed to a three-year, $128.5 million deal in 2023, his veteran leadership and steady floor generalship have been instrumental in the team’s resurgence. But with the 2024-25 season winding down, the Rockets face a tough decision. Should they pick up his nearly $44.9 million club option for next season, negotiate an extension or look for a younger replacement?
Fred VanVleet's value to the Rockets
VanVleet’s importance to the Rockets this season cannot be overlooked, even with him missing games due to injury. He’s posted averages of 14.5 points, 5.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game, guiding Houston to a 47-26 record, good enough for second (currently) in the competitive Western Conference. His leadership on and off the court has brought a sense of direction to a young roster that desperately needed it.
When VanVleet missed games during a long stretch between February and March, the Rockets hovered around .500 in his absence, a clear indicator of the void he leaves when unavailable. And while his scoring numbers aren't as consistent as in his Toronto days, his impact was emphasized in his recent 37-point explosion in a win against Miami. Games like that serve as a reminder of how VanVleet can get hot at a moment’s notice.
Let’s give VanVleet credit where it’s due. The ball moves with a purpose when he’s in the lineup. His ability to manage pace, cut down the turnovers and execute in crunch time has made the Rockets far more cohesive offensively compared to prior seasons. Statistically, Houston’s offensive rating improves significantly when VanVleet is on the floor.
Defensively, VanVleet is just as important. His on-ball pressure frustrates opposing guards, and his knack for stealing the ball often sparks transition opportunities. Although he’s viewed as a bit undersized, VanVleet’s grit and IQ make him a defensive asset.
Challenges in VanVleet's game
However, not everything about VanVleet’s play has been smooth. His field goal percentage has dipped to 38.6 percent (last year 41.6), including just 34.9 (last year 38.7) from 3-point range, which is far below what you’d expect from a player carrying such a heavy cap hit. That inefficiency has raised valid questions about his long-term viability as the Rockets' starting point guard.
And at $42.8 million this season, you want more from a player regarding scoring and consistency. Factors like age (31), a decline in scoring efficiency, health and money will all work against VanVleet this offseason.
Houston’s financial position
Houston’s financial situation will weigh heavily on how they approach VanVleet’s future. With a potential $44.9 million team option for 2025-26, keeping him at that number would strain the Rockets’ flexibility, especially as Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun’s extensions start kicking in. Toss in the future of budding stars like Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr., and the Rockets will need to walk a tightrope to avoid luxury tax issues.
Declining VanVleet’s team option could provide breathing room under the cap. Doing so would allow Houston to negotiate a more reasonable deal or pursue other options that fit better under the salary cap. While that approach makes fiscal sense, it comes with risk. Losing VanVleet without a ready backup plan in place could stunt the team’s development just as they’ve begun their ascent.
The Rockets also need to prioritize their younger core. Amen Thompson is blossoming into what looks like a potential star and the team will eventually need to hand the keys over. Balancing VanVleet’s contract with the necessity of locking in young talent will require some shrewd maneuvering by the front office.
The Rockets' options with VanVleet
Picking up the club option locks Houston into an almost $45 million cap hit for someone who might not even be in their starting five down the line. Alternatively, declining it and negotiating a two- or three-year extension at a lower annual rate could keep VanVleet’s leadership around while maintaining future cap flexibility. However, the Rockets would need VanVleet to agree to give the team a discount for this to happen.
Keep in mind that the rise of Amen Thompson further complicates this decision. Many believe Thompson could potentially take over as Houston’s primary ball handler, with VanVleet moving into more of a mentorship role. If Thompson continues his rapid development, it might compel Houston to let VanVleet walk or begin to diminish his role altogether.
There’s no doubt that VanVleet’s time with the Rockets has been impactful. He’s helped transform a struggling franchise into a playoff contender and influenced the growth of the team's young stars. But at $44.9 million next season, Houston must seriously evaluate whether VanVleet’s contributions justify the cost.