The Oklahoma City Thunder have secured the top spot in the Western Conference for a second straight season. Impressively, they did it before the calendar flipped to April, thanks to a double-digit game gap between them and the rest of the crop.
However, as utterly dominant as Oklahoma City has been, the four-team race for second place behind them is wildly tight and fascinating. The Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies have each held the West's No. 2 seed between Feb. 27 and now. But who will sit on the line when the 2024-25 NBA regular season ends on Apr. 13?
Assessing the race for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference
Team | Record | Current Seed | Remaining Strength of Schedule | % Chance of Earning No. 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Rockets | 46-26 | 2 | .522 | 81.2% |
Denver Nuggets | 45-28 | 3 | .522 | 10.3% |
Los Angeles Lakers | 43-28 | 4 | .577 | 1.4% |
Memphis Grizzlies | 43-28 | 5 | .534 | 6.3% |
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference's playoff probabilities report and Tankathon.com
Houston has a clear runway to entering the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the West -- or that's what the numbers suggest, at least. The Rockets are tied with the Nuggets for the easiest remaining schedule of the four clubs based on the combined winning percentage of their opponents. Basketball Reference also gives them an 81.2 percent chance of holding serve and maintaining their position in the standings.
However, only 2.5 games currently separate the Rockets from No. 5 seed Memphis, highlighting the neck-and-neck nature of the upper-West leaderboard. The margin for error is razor-thin, and these squads are scheduled to face each other down the stretch. So, odds could swing heavily -- quickly -- as demonstrated by Houston winning nine of their past 10 contests to vault from fifth to second.
The Rockets face the Lakers in Los Angeles twice before a regular-season finale at home against the Nuggets. Denver will host the Grizzlies before traveling to Houston for the mentioned showdown, though that's not all.
Arguably the biggest factor moving forward will be the status of Nuggets standout center Nikola Jokić. The three-time MVP has sat out five straight games as he tends to a sprained right ankle and his health bears monitoring.
Los Angeles has a pivotal road clash with the Grizzlies on the docket, plus their two meetings with the Rockets at Crypto.com Arena. They also have consecutive away games versus the Thunder, though Oklahoma City might be resting players with the No. 1 seed locked up. Nonetheless, The Lakers recently welcomed back superstar LeBron James following a 10-day hiatus due to a groin strain. So, things should trend upward for the purple and gold.
As you can see, several factors and moving parts can drastically alter the ongoing battle for the No. 2 seed in the West. At the moment, the Rockets have a distinct advantage, though that's subject to change at the drop of a dime. Houston's edge in the win-loss column is noteworthy, but it's not everything.
Denver and Los Angeles have something(s) the Rockets don't: Experience and bonafide top dogs. The James/Luka Dončić and Jokić/Jamal Murray tandems are proven commodities known for rising to the occasion. Meanwhile, Houston is awfully reliant on a good-not-great veteran floor general, Fred VanVleet to carry them in crunch time.
Even the Grizzlies have superior on-ball shot creators they can turn to when necessary. Whether it be Ja Morant, Desmond Bane or Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis has a trio of bucket-getters who score for different areas of the floor.
Ultimately, the Rockets are in the driver's seat as they jockey with the Lakers, Nuggets and Grizzlies. Yet, it wouldn't be shocking to see them drop their head-to-head games with Los Angeles and Denver and cede the high ground they've built. Nevertheless, this will come down to the wire and should make for a compelling mad scramble.
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NBA news roundup:
- Boston Celtics star wing Jaylen Brown returned from a three-game absence due to a knee issue for the team's 113-95 victory over the Sacramento Kings. But his running mate, Jayson Tatum, suffered a left ankle sprain in the third quarter and didn't re-enter the match.
- Devin Booker drained a clutch game-winning sidestep jumper to give the Phoenix Suns a much-needed 108-106 win versus the Milwaukee Bucks. Like the race for the No. 2 seed in the West, the play-in race is tight.
- Speaking of LeBron and Los Angeles, Bronny James scored a career-high 39 points to help the South Bay Lakers narrowly defeat the Santa Cruz Warriors.
Can the Phoenix Suns sneak past the play-in and into the playoffs?
Don't look now, but Phoenix has won five of its past six games and is tied with the Dallas Mavericks for 10th in the West. But the seasons own the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning they'd make the play-in if the season ended today. With that in mind, can the Suns sustain this surge and carry the momentum forward to eke into the playoffs?
During this mini-hot streak, the Suns are fourth in net rating, third in offense and 12th in defense. They're succeeding on both ends of the floor, with Booker and Kevin Durant carrying the scoring load, as we know they're capable of doing. And Phoenix hasn't just beaten up on cellar dwellers; they've taken down the Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers in their past two contests.
Phoenix is making threes at a high and efficient clip, tied for second in made attempts and third in percentage. They're also sharing the ball effectively, and their unselfishness has paid dividends, ranking second in assists per game. The Suns have bought into trusting each other more than usual, contributing greatly to the sudden rejuvenation.
But above all, the Suns' rotation has ostensibly fallen into place. Head coach Mike Budenholzer's restored faith in rookie forwards Oso Ighodaro and Ryan Dunn has been vital. Moreover, the installation of Collin Gillespie, who's been an afterthought much of the year (and his career), as the starting point guard can't be overlooked. They each have their fingerprints all over Phoenix's spurt.
If the Suns' lineup shake-up sticks and they maintain a borderline top-10 stop unit, there's no reason to think they can't advance past the play-in. Dunn and Ighodaro give them active, athletic defenders on the wings who are serviceable offensive connectors. Gillespie is an unexciting floor general, though he boasts incredible basketball IQ and seemingly always makes the right pass.
Given the circumstances, the Suns are making do with what they have at their disposal. The core issues of this team are roster construction and coaching, which can't be fixed at this juncture in the season. But Phoenix is showing signs of life, which they couldn't say before.