Rumored Tigers trade target would derail all of Detroit's momentum

Against all odds, the Detroit Tigers essentially rose from the dead and stole the last Wild Card spot in the American League. Not only did they miraculously sneak into the postseason, but they found a way to upset the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series and take the Cleveland Guardians to a winner-take-all Game 5 in the ALDS. They were one win away from a matchup against the New York Yankees with the AL Pennant on the line.

Despite the fact that they narrowly missed out on the ALCS, it can't be disputed that this past season was a huge win for the Tigers overall. They made the postseason for the first time since 2014 and finished over .500 for the first time since 2016. Armed with young and controllable stars like Tarik Skubal, Kerry Carpenter, and Riley Greene, the Tigers have the chance to win sustainably.

While the Tigers roster has a lot of exciting pieces, it still needs a lot of work to be true World Series contenders - particularly when it comes to their offense. The Tigers were tied for 19th in the majors in runs scored, 24th in home runs, and 23rd in OPS this past season - proving to be a below-average offensive team.

With that in mind, the Tigers have been linked to several free agents early this offseason — perhaps most notably Alex Bregman. While Bregman would make sense as a fit in Detroit for a variety of reasons, the Tigers aren't restricted to just free agency. In fact, Jon Morosi of MLB Network linked them to one of the biggest names on the trade market right now, Nolan Arenado. As exciting as it would be to add a player with Arenado's track record, it would be far from wise for Detroit to do this offseason.

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Tigers are linked to possible Nolan Arenado trade for all of the wrong reasons

Even if this would've been a couple of years ago, the idea of adding Arenado would've been thrilling. In 2024, though? The Tigers can and should do better.

To put it lightly, Arenado's bat is nowhere near what it once was. The 33-year-old was his usual elite self in 2022 offensively as evidenced by his .891 OPS, but that OPS figure fell to .774 in 2023 and was at .719 this past season. His OPS has dropped nearly 200 points in just two seasons of action. Despite playing in 152 games this past season, Arenado hit just 16 home runs - his lowest total in a full season (excluding 2020) since the 2013 season - his rookie year. As Arenado's 102 WRC+ would suggest, he was nothing more than average offensively.

What made Arenado a 3.1 fWAR player this past season even with just average offense was his glove. Sure, he didn't win a Gold Glove and might not be the Platinum Glove defender he once was, but he ranked in the 95th percentile in outs above average according to Baseball Savant. He's still very elite at the hot corner defensively. He has won 10 Gold Gloves in 12 years.

Despite the fact that Arenado is still a high-end defensive third baseman, Morosi notes that Arenado's willingness to move across the diamond to first base is appealing. That's incredibly odd. Even if the Tigers don't believe in Spencer Torkelson, Arenado certainly doesn't look like the answer there. His bat is pretty underwhelming for a third baseman, and it'd be downright bad for first basemen.

At the end of the day, nothing about this fit makes much sense. Arenado is an older player whose offense has declined. Detroit's solution is to bring him to a pitcher-friendly ballpark? His one clear strength right now is his glove, but they find his willingness to play first base appealing? They're interested in taking him on despite the money he's owed through the 2027 season?

If the Tigers are looking for a first baseman, both Pete Alonso and Christian Walker are available in free agency. Sure, the Tigers might have to spend a bit more to get them (assuming the Cardinals are willing to eat some of the money he's owed in a trade), but they're far more impactful offensively, have played first base before, and Javier Baez is the one player on their roster who is currently set to make more than $11 million in 2025. The Tigers have the money to bring in a far more impactful player than Arenado, and wouldn't have to part with any prospects to bring a free agent like Alonso, Walker, or even Bregman aboard.

Even as a third baseman, there's reason to be discouraged if Detroit's big offseason splash is Arenado. If their plan is to use him at first base, then it simply makes no sense.