The 2025 NBA Draft has an obvious top pick in Cooper Flagg, the 18-year-old Duke sensation who put together a historically dominant season for college basketball's premier blue blood. Beyond Flagg, however, the conversation has revolved around two teammates from an improbable program: Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights won the recruitment trail last offseason, luring five-star freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey to the mean streets of New Jersey. Harper was a legacy recruit of sorts — his older brother, Ron Jr., spent a few years at Rutgers. Bailey, however, was a true heist for Steve Pikiell as he endeavors to put this Scarlet Knights team back on the map.
Naturally, excitement started to bubble up around Rutgers with two projected top-five picks in the mix. Before the season, many folks considered the Scarlet Knights a lock for the NCAA Tournament — or at least a dangerous sleeper. Both Harper and Bailey would've been No. 1 picks in 2024. This is a deep class, so Rutgers was ripe with top-end talent.
The end results fell well short of expectations. The Scarlet Knights went 8-12 in the conference and 15-17 overall before a predictably early exit from the Big Ten Tournament. Both Harper and Bailey put together special seasons, and cemented their case as top-five picks in the process. But, their lack of team success stands out like a sore thumb, especially when compared to past teams with two top-five picks on the roster.
Rutgers will soon be the 7th team in the one-and-done era (since 2005) with two freshmen who were eventually picked in the top 5 of the NBA Draft.
— Brian Fonseca (@briannnnf) March 20, 2025
Rutgers is the only one to miss the NCAA Tournament, losing more conference games this season (12) than the other six combined (11). https://t.co/mxziHOZbML pic.twitter.com/st3qWhIPwT
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Rutgers' struggles cast doubt upon Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey as top-five picks
The 2024-25 Rutgers Scarlet Knights will soon become the seventh team in the one-and-done era to roster two freshmen top-five picks, barring an unforeseen fall for either Harper or Bailey on draft night. Rutgers lost more conference games this season (12) than the other six teams combined (11). It's hard to overstate just how rare this is.
We should not necessarily pin this strange confluence of circumstances on Harper and Bailey. Rutgers' issues stretch far deeper than its star freshmen, who again, were utterly dominant for most of this season. Pikiell's seat has never been hotter, and Rutgers' lack of talent around its 18-year-old stars was the real reason this team never took off. Harper and Bailey could only do so much. Injuries were also a factor, particularly with Harper.
Still, it's a bit odd for Harper and Bailey to put up such great numbers without the wins to show for it. The best NBA prospects tend to impact winning in a meaningful way. Flagg led a No. 1 seed. VJ Edgecombe has Baylor in the NCAA Tournament. Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Derik Queen — the other names picking up lottery buzz right now are overwhelmingly part of winning, March Madness-bound teams.
There is an extra burden of proof on Harper and Bailey moving forward. A lot of the common criticisms of Bailey, for example, can be tied directly to Rutgers' lack of winning. He doesn't pass. He's a microwave iso scorer, but without much talent for elevating those around him. If Bailey were stepping into open jumpers on a dominant Duke team, for example, it'd be easy to overlook these qualms. When Bailey drops 30 points on every manner of jump shot in a double-digit loss, however, it's hard not to question whether his unique skill set can actually translate to team success. Especially when he is propped up as a future franchise cornerstone.
Harper is the consensus No. 2 pick behind Flagg after averaging 19.4 points and 4.0 assists on 58.7 percent true shooting. Bailey seems locked in that Nos. 3-4 range on most credible mocks after he put up 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks on 53.6 percent true shooting.
Both these dudes are off the charts good, with more than enough talent to thrive at the NBA level for years to come. If either (or both) falls short of expectations, however, just know folks will circle back to this disappointing season from Rutgers and say, "maybe we should've seen this coming."