It sure feels like Sam Darnold will be one-and-done with the Minnesota Vikings.
A magical 2024 campaign from Darnold certainly complicates the matter, but it's impossible to ignore the looming presence of J.J. McCarthy on the Vikings' roster. The reigning No. 10 overall pick has received nothing but rave reviews internally. Plus, all the factors that led to Darnold's breakout campaign in Minnesota should help McCarthy get up to speed quickly. There isn't a better offensive ecosystem in the NFL for a first-year quarterback.
There is also a simple financial truth to consider: Darnold is about to get paid. Even if the Vikings slap the transition tag on him, there's a good chance another team will bid at a level Minnesota is uncomfortable with. If he hits the open market, which feels most likely, Darnold will have a wide range of suitors. Pretty much every team with a need at quarterback should at least place a phone call.
The 27-year-old finished last season with 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. He was fifth in QBR. Darnold made the Pro Bowl on the strength of undeniably elite production. We can quibble with the depth of his résumé, but Darnold ascended to genuinely impressive heights last season. Now he figures to cash in.
ESPN's Matt Bowen sees one obvious fit: the Las Vegas Raiders.
Raiders in prime position to upgrade QB position with Sam Darnold signing
The Raiders are expected to cut Gardner Minshew after a disappointing 2024 campaign. Aidan O'Connell will stick around to soak up QB2 duties, but he did not take the leap fans — or coaches — hoped for last season. That leaves Las Vegas in dire need of a new signal-caller.
There is quite a bit of pressure to get this right. Pete Carroll will become the oldest head coach in NFL history when he turns 74 midseason. The Raiders can't exactly wait forever to get their ducks in a row. The competitive timeline is accelerated with Carroll, and we all know how badly Tom Brady wants to win in every aspect of his life. He has taken command of Las Vegas' football operations behind the scenes, and you can bet he'll play a key role in vetting their next QB.
Bowen views Chip Kelly, Las Vegas' new offensive coordinator, as the perfect play-calling complement to Darnold.
"With the transition to coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders could finally solve their QB issue in free agency by signing Darnold. Las Vegas was 30th in QBR in 2024 (40.4), and Darnold's 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdown throws for the Vikings both ranked fifth in the league. And in Vegas, Kelly could scheme for Darnold's arm talent, while also using his mobility to attack the edges."
That all sounds great on paper. It's fair to be a little skeptical about Darnold's ability to hold up outside of Minnesota's scheme, where Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones can make a lot of quarterbacks look good. It's also fair to be weary of Chip Kelly's NFL return. His reputation is, um, complicated for a reason.
On the other hand, Kelly does historically dial up some ambitious throws, which should play nicely into Darnold's impressive arm talent and gunner's mentality. The pure throwing ability is right up there with the best in the NFL. The question is, can Las Vegas keep Darnold's more errant decisions in check? If so, the Raiders could land their franchise quarterback for the next five-plus years in Darnold.