SEC Championship Game Scenarios for Week 13: What happens if Texas loses?

Chaos came to the SEC last weekend, with Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M all losing to unranked teams on the road. All three now have three losses on the year, likely putting them on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff.

But where did Saturday's carnage leave the conference title race? Texas continues to lead the pack with just one loss, but below them, things are more bunched up than ever — and with the Longhorns facing one of their toughest tests of the season at Texas A&M this week, we could have one more big twist in store. Here's what's on the line in the final week of the regular season, and what the Lone Star Showdown means for the SEC Championship Game.

SEC Championship Game scenarios if Texas loses to Texas A&M

As a reminder, here's the SEC's tiebreaker procedure for the 2024 season, in descending order:

• Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
• Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams
• Record against highest-placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
• Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
• Capped relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams
• Random draw of the tied teams

In the event that Texas A&M pulls the upset against Texas, we'll have at least a three-way tie atop the conference between the Aggies, Longhorns and Georgia. That has a chance to become a four-way tie if Tennessee beats Vanderbilt to finish at 6-2 on the year. How will that tie shake out? Let's get into it.

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, but because we don't have a complete round robin — Texas A&M hasn't played Georgia, Tennessee hasn't played Texas or Texas A&M — that won't be of any help. Unfortunately, neither will the next two tiebreakers: All four teams (or all three, should the Vols lose to Vandy) went 2-0 against their two common conference opponents, Florida and Mississippi State.

That brings us to tiebreaker No. 4, cumulative winning percentage of all conference opponents. In other words: Which team played the most difficult conference schedule? And now, finally, we have some separation.

Texas A&M SEC opponent conference record: 28-30 (winning percentage: 48.3)
Georgia SEC opponent conference record: 26-32 (44.8)
Texas SEC opponent conference record: 24-33 (42.1)
Tennessee SEC conference opponent record: 23-36 (38.9)

The Aggies come out on top here by a margin of just two games, meaning that Mike Elko's team would secure the first spot in the conference title game. With A&M removed from consideration, this now becomes a three-way tie between Georgia, Texas and Tennessee (or a two-way tie if the Vols lose), and thankfully this one can be resolved far more quickly. Because the Dawgs beat both Texas and Tennessee this season, they advance on the head-to-head tiebreaker and would meet the Aggies in Atlanta on Dec. 7.

With Georgia already in the clubhouse at 6-2, Kirby Smart's team is guaranteed a spot in the SEC Championship Game — no matter what happens in their game against Georgia Tech on Saturday, and no matter what happens elsewhere in the conference. They'll face whoever wins the Texas-Texas A&M game, giving even more stakes to the renewal of one of the country's fiercest rivalries.