The Oklahoma City Thunder are having a dominant 64-12 season and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP frontrunner. Impressively OKC has the league's top-ranked defense and third-ranked offense. The Thunder's two-way balance and regular season dominance set them up for a deep playoff run. According to FanDuel the Thunder are -145 favorites to win the West and at +145 they have surpassed the Celtics as the odds-on favorites to win the NBA title.
OKC's 13.36 scoring differential is the best of all-time. Moreover, their 13.4 net rating is tied with the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls for the highest in league history. If the Thunder win all of their remaining six games they would become just the third team ever to win 70-plus games. With this level of dominance and SGA likely winning MVP comes high playoff expectations. Despite their incredible regular play, the Thunder are still an unproven playoff squad which could end up hurting them. Once they officially break the scoring differential record playoff pressure will mount for the Thunder.
With the latest OKC blowout win, the Thunder (63-12) seem to have a lock on the most dominant regular season in NBA history.
— Sean Grande (@SeanGrandePBP) April 1, 2025
All they have to do is outscore their final 7 opponents by a total of 6 points to break the Lakers' 53-year old NBA record for scoring differential. pic.twitter.com/WbIPZmJLbx
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History says the Thunder should win it all
After this year's Thunder team, the next seven teams with the best scoring differential have gone on to win the championship. Likewise, seven out of the 10 teams with the best net ratings of all-time have won the title. This year's Thunder's team the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs, and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (best regular season record of all-time) are the lone exceptions. Considering these metrics the Thunder should be primed to win the title, however, if they don't at least make the Finals many would view this as a disappointment.
Furthermore, the Thunder are 14.5 games ahead of the second-seed Houston Rockets. There also isn't a clear second-title favorite in the West some would argue it's the Los Angeles Lakers, others would say the Denver Nuggets, and maybe some would even make the case for the Golden State Warriors.
It would be one thing to lose the Boston Celtics in the Finals who are dominant squad in their own right or even the Cleveland Cavaliers who aren't too far behind OKC in these metrics (15th in scoring differential and net rating). However, losing to the Nuggets, Lakers, Warriors or another team in the West would undoubtedly be scrutinized, especially if it ends up being the Nuggets and Shai wins MVP over Nikola Jokić.
The Thunder's lack of playoff experience is a concern
Despite OKC's regular season dominance, a more experienced team in the West may beat them in the playoffs. Typically championship teams have years of playoff experience either as a core or collectivity. Last year was the Thunder's first playoffs together and they were upset by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round.
They did upgrade their roster by bolstering their frontcourt size with Isaiah Hartenstein and perimeter defense with Alex Caruso. Shai was great in the playoffs last year so there's nothing to worry about with him. Another year of development from Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren should help but Williams specifically struggled in the playoffs last year. Nevertheless, nobody on OKC's roster has made it to the Conference Finals, this could hurt them against seasoned teams like the Nuggets, Lakers, or Warriors.
Ultimately, the Thunder's lack of experience is their only flaw, outside of that they are an elite and complete team. Championship or bust mentality is typically unnecessary but with this team, it's understandable regardless of their experience. Anything less than an NBA Finals appearance will be seen as a disappointment. Only time will tell if OKC's dominance will continue in the playoffs or if their lack of experience will get the best of them.