Steelers bold predictions vs. Chiefs on Christmas Day in Week 17

When football aficionados check under their trees this morning they’ll find two surprises on Netflix’s slate. As the early window Christmas Day combatants, the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers have plenty at stake. One will leave with a gift-wrapped chunk of coal and a sour taste in their mouth. However, Pittsburgh would feel a loss more viscerally. It would be their third in a row and put them in a position to lose the division after leading it for 16 weeks.

Narratively speaking, Patrick Mahomes should be expected to ride into Pittsburgh and make a chicken soup out of the Steelers, but Mike Tomlin, Russell Wilson could have surprises up his sleeves against a Chiefs coordinator he’s familiar with coupled with the return of vital defensive pieces. The Chiefs being a more favorable matchup due to their deficiencies at tackle will also be a significant factor. Here are a few bold predictions for how their Week 17 skirmish shakes out. 

 Steelers run defense returns to form

After consecutive weeks of being ripped to shreds by the Eagles and then the Ravens on the ground, the Chiefs are a more favorable matchup. In Weeks 15 and 16, Pittsburgh’s top-five run defense surrendered 350 rushing yards forcing the defense to remain on the field for prolonged stretches. 

Kareem Hunt has been a solid addition but doesn’t resemble the dynamic back who played his first two seasons in Kansas City. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco has been a sluggish runner averaging 3.7 yards per carry since returning from a fractured leg suffered in Week 2. The Chiefs have been more methodical than they have in years past because they possess the league’s top third-down conversion percentage. The key is forcing them into third-and-longs.

Safety DeSon Elliott's presence in the boxes after missing the last two weeks bodes well for Pittsburgh's potential return to form against Kansas City’s ground offense.

Patrick Mahomes throws his first INT since Week 11

Patrick Mahomes has been playing with tight margins for almost the entire 2024 season. He’s the league’s most reliable third down quarterback, the best in clutch time and since a generous start to the season when he threw seven picks in the first seven games, he’s been stingy throwing just two in the eight games since. Mature Mahomes isn’t like Young Mahomes. The Chiefs no longer sling it around with reckless abandon. 

Getting Mature Mahomes to cough up the rock has been like drawing water from a stone in the second half of the season. He protects the rock like a mama bear these days. He is almost immune to pressure. The Steelers have a habit of getting quarterbacks to loosen up, get too comfortable and generate short fields for their own offense.

Russell Wilson gets the best of Spagnuolo

The positive thing about Pickens returning after a two-game absence is that he should be one of the freshest skill-position players on the field. There’s a good chance had his pregame fit laid out overnight and woke up early on Christmas morning craving the chance to get back out there. The ingredients for Wilson to cook again are finally back on the menu.

Wilson also played two seasons in Denver where he was strikingly effective against Spags' exotic blitzes. In five games against Steve Spagnuolo's defenses, Wilson has completed 101 of 154 passes (65%), for 1,012 yards and 11 touchdowns to four interceptions. Additionally, Pickens’ return, plus a Chiefs defense missing cornerback Jaylen Watson, and interior pass rusher Chris Jones likely being ruled out due to a calf injury has the making of an afternoon of Wilson barbecuing Kansas City DBs. 

Christmas Day matchup is decided by one score

The Chiefs and Steelers are addicted to drama. Over the last 11 years dating back to when Reid was appointed Chiefs head coach, his and Tomlin’s teams have the best winning percentage in one-score games. The dopamine high from a close win is intoxicating and both have been partaking in it at an unusually high level. The gap in DVOA and scoring differential between the 2024 Chiefs and other one-loss teams this late in the season is shockingly vast. Eleven of their 14 wins being by one possession ties them with the 2022 Minnesota Vikings for the most in league history. 

This season, the Chiefs have thrived on more close wins than any Super Bowl contender in recent history. The Steelers on the other hand feel like more For these two opponents to stage a Christmas Day game that isn’t a thriller would be a travesty. 

Steelers pass rush flusters Mahomes

No team in the NFL leaves their door ajar at left tackle quite like the Kansas City Chiefs. D.J. Humphries, Wanya Morris, rookie Kingsley Suamataia, and now guard Joe Thuney have been converted to left tackle to protect Mahomes’ blindside and preserve his peace of mind when he drops back. Thuney has not allowed a sack in his last two games. He’ll have to face the Kraken that is T.J. Watt on Sunday. Watt has had another four days for his ankle to heal after turning it against the Eagles in Week 15. 

Thuney and Watt’s reputations precede them. He’s a former Defensive Player of the Year, is the frontrunner to earn the honor a second time this season, and the second-fastest player to 100 sacks. Thuney is a four-time Super Bowl champion, a three-time All-Pro playing the guard position.

Meanwhile, on the right side, Jawaan Taylor is questionable after getting banged up on Saturday. Nick Herbig has demonstrated a nose for big plays all season while Alex Highsmith has wreaked havoc when healthy this season. Given Mahomes will be limping around on a bad ankle, he should be wary of using his legs too often in an attempt to conjure up his trademark sorcery escaping the pocket on third down or late in the contest with these three in pursuit.