Predictions for Steelers-Raiders in Week 6: Do George Pickens and Najee Harris rebound?

The Pittsburgh Steelers' visit to Allegiant Stadium for a showdown with the Las Vegas Raiders comes at a pivotal moment for the Steelers. It doubles as the rare business trip for the front office and the coaching staff on down to the locker room. The reverberations from Sunday’s final could be the turning point in this season for better or worse. A win gets them back on track while a loss could indicate the beginning of a spiral. Confidence in the Steelers is nosediving after last weekend, but several predictions can be gleaned from a matchup with a Raiders team that is on even choppier waters.

Predictions for Steelers' Week 6 matchup against Raiders

The Steelers win by more than one possession. 

The spread is only -3, but all the signs point to not only a Steelers bounceback win but their second game of the season being decided by more than one possession. Last season, the Steelers played 11 games decided by eight points or fewer. This season, 80 percent of their contests have been down-to-the-wire finishes. 

The Raiders are reeling. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell will assume the starter’s job this season. But Sunday, he may be more of a sacrificial lamb. According to Steelers.com, with Davante Adams on the field this season, Las Vegas has completed 73.4 percent of its passes with a 7.3 yards per attempt. With Adams off the field, those numbers tumble to 60.3 percent and 6.3 yards per attempt. The Raiders also throw the football at one of the highest rates in the league. If they find themselves stuck in a series of third-and-longs, T.J. Watt’s pressure might have him begging for a merciful end.

TJ Watt records at least two sacks or is responsible for at least one fumble

O’Connell’s first start of the season couldn’t have come at a worse time. Adams is out with a hamstring injury and requested a trade last week, which should be fulfilled in the coming days. He also has to deal with TJ Watt galloping at him with bad intent in his eyes. 

Watt lines up on the edge with a reputation as public enemy number one for quarterbacks. He’s started this season slow with 4.5 sacks in five games, but multiple sacks and turnovers have been scratched off the board by penalties, illegal holds, and chip blocks that have been used to slow him down. The absence of Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith is a huge blow to the Steelers. The Raiders will key in on Watt, but that has not stopped him yet. The last time Watt faced the Raiders in Week 3 of the 2023 campaign, he racked up two sacks, three quarterback hits and two tackles for loss. 

Justin Fields will quell the building calls for Russell Wilson for one more week

Russell Wilson is ramping up his participation in practices, which means the specter of him reclaiming his job is becoming even more real as he regains his corporeal football form. Las Vegas is ripe for the picking. Maxx Crosby is perpetually a problem on the edge, but their secondary is one of the league’s worst. The Steelers should have a Field(s) day against an uninspiring group of defensive backs.

Pittsburgh has thrown the ball around more frequently in the last few weeks, but it remains to be seen if they can finish in the red zone. Their final drive against the Cowboys was a promising development, but this matchup has the lowest over/under of the weekend because of the lack of faith in Fields. Pittsburgh's eight touchdowns scored this season are the sixth-lowest in the league.

I fully expect Tomlin to showcase a bit more of the drop-back passing game with Fields, in part to get Pickens involved and to determine if Fields can consistently test a pillow-soft secondary before they face the New York Jets next Monday night.

George Pickens will exceed 100 yards receiving or Najee Harris will have his best rushing output of the season 

Harris and Pickens are competing among themselves for the title of most underwhelming Steelers in their unique ways. Factor in all-purpose yards from scrimmage, and Harris’ season doesn’t look as horrific. He’s generated at least 70 yards from scrimmage in each game this season. However, his primary duty is to provide relief between the tackles, which has been a struggle for him. Fortunately, the Raiders allow 5.2 yards per rush to running backs, 31st in the league.

Meanwhile, Pickens has gone into complete self-sabotage mode, doing everything short of going live on Instagram from the locker room on game day. He carelessly fumbled against Indianapolis during his singular best outing of the season, costing his team at least a field goal in a game they lost by three, then sent a passive-aggressive message in his eye black on Sunday Night Football. You’d think he would have been moving with the fury of a thousand suns out there once he received the attention he ordered. Nope, he moped around the field instead. 

On a per-snap basis, the Steelers throw the ball at the fifth-lowest clip in the league, which has mitigated Pickens’ influence on the offense. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in explosive plays (gains of 15 yards or more) whereas Pickens led the league in yards per reception a year ago. He’s unhappy and he showed it.

Pickens is averaging 62 yards per contest this season, but the reduction in snaps he experienced last week became another cause for concern. Pickens is on the verge of checking out. 

However, Harris has been flat-out ineffective in Arthur Smith’s schemes. During a slate of games where he could have padded his numbers against inferior rushing defenses, he actually performed below his season average. Bank on an angry George Pickens showing out in front of the receiver who could supplant him as Pittsburgh’s No. 1 option.

The Raiders score fewer than 21 points

Justin Fields has never won a game where his opponent's total on the scoreboard has exceeded 20 points. That appears to be the magic number that portends a Steelers win. A slew of injuries has the Steelers limping into this one, but the Raiders are a disjointed team with no identity and no strengths. O’Connell was the starter last season when the Raiders upset the Chiefs on Christmas Day, but that offense only scored 20 while O’Connell threw for 62 yards. 

The Raiders are the rare team that ranks below Pittsburgh in total offense. They also boast a bottom-five scoring defense. The Steelers have a prime opportunity to end their current two-game slide. Tomlin teams typically don’t get surprised twice in one season against floundering teams, so if they can’t fly out of Vegas with a 4-2 record, there may be deeper issues at the root. It may be a cliche, but Week 6 is reminiscent of their battle with the Colts in Week 4 where the only thing that can beat the Steelers Sunday are themselves.