After months of open flirtation, Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers finally consummated their marriage on Thursday, with the 41-year-old quarterback signing a one-year contract to run point on Arthur Smith's scheme.
This was pretty much the last path available to Pittsburgh after waiting so long. Starting Mason Rudolph was never ideal and Will Howard isn't close to starting NFL games, with all due respect. Kirk Cousins is still available on the trade front, but Pittsburgh let all viable free agent avenues pass them by. Until the Steelers were big on Carson Wentz or Ryan Tannehill, it was Rodgers or bust. At least they didn't bust.
While this was a move of necessity for both sides, it still feels like the wrong decision for a Steelers team desperate to break the cycle of mediocrity. Mike Tomlin has never finished below .500 in a season, but the Steelers haven't made it past the Wild Card round since 2017. That is eight years without a remotely deep postseason run, which means patience is starting to wear thin for a rabid fanbase with built-in high expectations.
Rodgers was an awesome talent in his prime, but he's not longer in his prime. That might be the main issue: he comes with so much baggage, meaning the end result will almost certainly feel like a letdown.
Aaron Rodgers and Steelers just aren't a fit at this stage of his career
Rodgers was deeply fine in his lone healthy season with the New York Jets. He threw for 3,897 yards and 28 touchdowns, but he also threw for 11 interceptions — tied for third-most of his career. That is also back-to-back full seasons with double digit INTs for the four-time MVP.
His arm strength has not crated completely, but Rodgers is a wooden plank in the backfield. The mobility and creativity outside the pocket that once made him so unstoppable has dissipated. He's way too vulnerable under pressure, which can lead to sacks and even worse, back-breaking mistakes.
Pittsburgh's offensive line has been a problem for years. They still haven't recovered from the Broderick Jones whiff. It's not like Rodgers is leaving a great O-line behind in New York, but expecting Pittsburgh to adequately protect him is a fool's errand.
He is also joining a far less explosive offensive ecosystem. Arthur Smith runs a balanced scheme built on a solid run game and a prescribed set of plays. Rodgers is a shotgun bomber who wants to change things at the line of scrimmage and use his IQ to think two steps ahead of the defense. When Russell Wilson wanted the freedom to change plays and run the show, he openly butted heads with Smith, and the entire offense fell apart.
The Steelers are handing the reins from one aging quarterback with declining athleticism to an ever older quarterback with even less flexibility, but with a far bigger ego. Rodgers wants to do things his way. It has been a point of contention is all his past stops. Now he goes to Pittsburgh, where Mike Tomlin does not easily tolerate nonsense and where Smith does not subscribe to a culture of optionality.
Moreover, Pittsburgh's offensive setup is worse than New York's, for reasons extending well beyond the offensive line. DK Metcalf is a talented WR1, but he's not prime Garrett Wilson. The Steelers' WR room beyond Metcalf gets fairly dire. Trading for Jonnu Smith or Kyle Pitts sounds good on paper, but neither has produced great results under Smith before. Pitts in particular feels like a disaster waiting to happen — another player whose name value far exceeds his actual ability on the football field.
What can we expect from Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers next season?
We know how things go in Pittsburgh by now. The defense will carry them only so far in the regular season while the offense does just enough to squeak into a Wild Card spot, only for Pittsburgh to fall on its face as soon as the postseason lights flicker on.
If anything, one could argue Rodgers is a worse quarterback than Wilson, who actually made the Pro Bowl last season and looked something like his old self for a few weeks before the train went off the rails. Rodgers is getting older, not younger, and the limitations that defined his Jets tenure will only become more severe in a Steelers uniform.
With a mediocre pass-catching corps, a leaky offensive line and a coordinator Rodgers almost surely won't see eye to eye with, the Steelers are barreling headlong toward disappointment. Let's peg them at 8-10 wins and another early finale, and that's being generous to the voodoo-like ability of Mike Tomlin to win regular season games by the skin of his teeth.