The final four WNBA playoff spots are still up for grabs, though New York and Golden State have all but officially clinched at this point, and Indiana is a game up in the loss column over the two other teams in the picture. For the sake of this argument, let's pretend those three teams are good here.
That leaves the Storm and Sparks battling for the final playoff spot, and the way the WNBA schedule has worked out has made that battle fairly weird.
See, the Storm are 22-20 on the season right now and sit 1.5 games ahead of the 19-20 Sparks, but you might notice something important there: both teams have 20 losses.
That's because the Sparks still have five games left to play this season. The Storm? Just two. And while the Storm are ahead right now, Los Angeles' comeback win on Monday night over Seattle clinched the tiebreaker for LA, which means that the team has a pretty simple playoff path: win out, and the Sparks are in.
Sparks get huge win over Storm
The importance of Los Angeles winning on Monday can't be overstated here. A Storm win would have meant that even if Seattle lost out, the team would have finished 23-21. The Sparks would have left Monday night with an 18-21 record. Seattle would have been in a prime position for a playoff spot.
But a 23-12 fourth-quarter advantage led to the Sparks winning 91-85, completing the comeback and completely shifting the playoff race. The Storm no longer control their own destiny. They can win out, but they'll finish behind the Sparks if the Sparks win out. At that point, the team would be hoping for an Indiana collapse.
Dearica Hamby came up huge on Monday, scoring 27 points and notably getting the and one that gave Los Angeles the lead in the final minutes of the contest. The defense locked down at the end as well, preventing Seattle from closing the gap once LA took control.
Seattle's remaining schedule
Date | Game |
|---|---|
Sept. 5 | vs. Liberty |
Sept. 9 | vs Valkyries |
Seattle can't do anything except win basketball games and hope other teams lose at this point, but the team is in decent shape here because both of its remaining games are at home. Sure, both are also against playoff teams, but it's not like the Storm have to play the Lynx and Aces. Home contests against the Liberty and Valkyries aren't gimme wins, but they're certainly winnable games.
Los Angeles' remaining schedule
Date | Game |
|---|---|
Sept. 3 | at Dream |
Sept. 5 | at Dream |
Sept. 7 | vs Wings |
Sept. 9 | at Mercury |
Sept. 11 | vs Aces |
Alright, so here's the thing. The Sparks control their own destiny in the sense that winning all these games gets them in the playoffs over the Storm, but it's hard to see them winning all five games.
The toughest games are probably the two road games against Atlanta. The Dream sit in third place with a 26-14 record and have won seven of their last 10 games. Los Angeles lost the first meeting of these teams back in May and now has to face Atlanta twice in three days. That won't be easy.
Really, none of these games are easy, minus the breather that is the home game against the Wings. Four of these five being against playoff teams makes for a tough path to the No. 8 seed for this team.
One bit of good news, though: If — and this is a huge if — the Sparks do manage to go on a big run here and win the first four of these games, there's a good chance that means Vegas will have officially clinched the No. 2 seed over Atlanta by the time the season finale rolls around, allowing the Aces to rest their stars in preparation for the playoffs. That might be a huge break for Los Angeles, but it has to beat Atlanta twice for that scenario to really come into play, as right now, Vegas and Atlanta have the same record.
Who gets the final playoff spot?
It'd be a great story for the Sparks to come back after a disappointing start to the season and make a late playoff push, but the schedule just feels too difficult to make that happen.
Los Angeles plays five games. Seattle plays two. There are more chances for the Sparks to mess up, especially when four of those games are against teams that are seeded higher than anyone Seattle plays.
The Storm can even afford to stumble a bit. Losing to New York and beating Golden State would give the Sparks an easier path, but it would still require Los Angeles to go 4-1 against this tough stretch. The path's not easy here. Like, yeah — win out and you're in, but Los Angeles is very unlikely to win out against this schedule.