Texas Bowl preview: Odds, prediction and how to watch LSU vs. Baylor

Every team enters the college football season aspiring to make the College Football Playoff and compete for a national title. For most, that dream comes up short.

LSU and Baylor are just two teams in that large group but they both had enough success in 2024 to play in a postseason bowl game. The two will meet in Houston to participate in the Kinder's Texas Bowl and the matchup could be more interesting than meets the eye.

Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier did not declare for the 2025 NFL Draft and instead will return to Baton Rouge to play another year of college ball for head coach Brian Kelly. The Texas Bowl will be fans' opportunity to get a preview of what could be coming next year.

When is the Texas Bowl?

LSU and Baylor will play on Dec. 31 as one of four other bowl games kicking off, including a marquee matchup between Michigan and Alabama at the ReliaQuest Bowl. The Texas Bowl will start at 3:30pm, hosted by NRG Stadium in Houston - home of the NFL's Houston Texans.

This will be the 19th edition of the Texas Bowl, which replaced the Houston Bowl in 2006. Baylor has played in the game twice prior while LSU will be participating for just the second time in program history.

LSU v. Baylor: Matchup preview

This New Year's Eve battle will feature two Top 30 offenses so points will not be hard to come by. However, that may also be due in part to both teams owning defenses outside the Top 50.

LSU (No. 52 ranked defense) could have the edge in this matchup with just enough to stop Baylor on crucial drives. Nussmeier should be able to tear apart Baylor's No. 81 ranked defense with ease.

The key to an upset for Baylor, however, might be in the Bears' redzone opportunities. They're ranked 43rd in the country when they get inside the 20-yard line, so taking advantage and finding the endzone each time will be the key to victory.

Both quarterbacks are relatively evenly matched as well. Nussmeier and Sawyer Robertson both threw for 26 touchdowns this season, with both their offenses operating mostly through the air. The passer who can avoid turning the ball over will emerge victorious.

How to watch the Texas Bowl

ESPN will broadcast the Texas Bowl at 3:30pm ET but it can also be found streaming on ESPN.com, the ESPN app and ESPN+ with a subscription. The game can also be viewed through the Disney+ app and Hulu Plus Live Sports with proper subscriptions. Other streamers like YouTube TV and Fubo will have ESPN's feed as well.

Texas Bowl odds, picks and predictions

Baylor is actually a one-point favorite according to Las Vegas in the matchup, which seems odd. But then again, the evenly matched teams could surprise some folks with an unusual game.

Over 59.5 points (-110)

Given both offenses work at high calibers and their respective defenses have given up significant points and yards this year, the over is the most appetizing pick here. Nussmeier and Robertson will be looking to sling it across the middle of the field and take advantage of sub-par secondaries. The turnover game will be the X factor in determining a winner, so taking care of the football will be essential for either team.

Prediction: LSU 34 Baylor 31 (+8000)