What about the eye test? While the Texas Longhorns do play in the toughest college basketball league in the country, they appear to be on the outside looking in at making the NCAA Tournament. In Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology update for ESPN, he has the Longhorns as one of the first four out, along with Boise State, North Carolina and Ohio State. Meanwhile, he has teams like Indiana and Xavier getting in instead.
Yes, the SEC is projected to be getting 13 of its 16 teams into the tournament, but there is a case to be made that Texas should make it 14. Right now, the only two SEC teams who are most certainly not getting in are LSU and South Carolina. Texas is in a group of teams like Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt who are fighting for March Madness inclusion.
The Horns are 19-15 overall and 6-12 in SEC play. That is not much to write home about, but Texas seems to have a better resume than Indiana out of the Big Ten and Xavier out of the Big East. The Longhorns have significantly more Quad 1 wins than both the Hoosiers and the Musketeers, as well as a better NET rating. Unfortunately, I think Texas is going to be missing out.
Here are the latest scribblings of a mad man heading into the final day of conference tournaments.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 16, 2025
I will now unpack what Lunardi is trying to get across when it comes to his "Bracket Math" of sorts.
Why does Joe Lunardi have Texas as one of his first four teams out?
Lunardi starts by saying that we are looking at three teams for the last two at-large spots in. He has Indiana and Xavier as the last two teams in, with Boise State as the first team out, followed up by Texas, North Carolina and Ohio State in that order. He said that Texas has too many losses and North Carolina does not have enough wins to get in. Lunardi said to keep an eye on Memphis and VCU, too.
Should either the Tigers or the Rams lose their conference tournaments, it would likely take away one or two at-large spots. Lunardi finished his thought on the matter by saying he would prefer to see Boise State make it in out of the Mountain West, rather than give it to a borderline undeserving Power Five team like Indiana or Xavier, but he does not believe the Selection Committee will see it that way.
Ultimately, Texas has those 15 losses to blame for why the Longhorns may not make the tournament. While I am not so sure any of these teams on the bubble are going to amount to anything in the tourney, I would argue that teams who played in the tougher league may have a decided edge. Then again, the SEC is already projected to get 13 teams into the tournament. So what weighs more?
Texas' resume may be slightly better than that of Indiana or Xavier, but the Horns are so up against it.