The Moonshot: Red Sox-Alex Bregman, MLB script, spring preview and a notebook
Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
The Red Sox World Series odds increased to +2400, good for eighth-best in MLB, after signing Alex Bregman. Is that high, low, or on point?
Cody Williams: Allow me to be the unabashed homer that I am. It’s too low. Put the odds at -125 like they should be. The Boston Red Sox are winning the World Series, probably sweeping the Dodgers so relentlessly that LA just waves the white flag and opts to not even play Game 4.
In all seriousness, the eighth-best World Series odds feel right on the money. There is absolutely a world wherein things break right for Boston and they are in contention for at least an AL Pennant. However, that likely requires some combination of a healthy Trevor Story, a huge jump up in innings from Garrett Crochet, a bounce-back from Triston Casas, Walker Buehler putting together a full season, and likely one or both of Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell arriving with aplomb in the majors. That’s a lot of factors, as is the case with baseball, but it’s also not out of the question. What’s obvious, though, is that the Red Sox are far more serious of a contender than they were on Wednesday morning.
Chris Landers: I’ll put them at just a touch too low, but probably not by as much as some Red Sox fans are telling themselves this morning. It is a little confusing to me why Boston would be a worse World Series bet than, say, the Rangers or the Astros (seventh in the league at +2000), each of which seem to have bigger question marks entering spring. Beyond that, though, who are you bumping? Not the Dodgers, obviously, and I still see the Mets and Braves as pretty comfortably better rosters at full health. The Red Sox still have questions to answer in the bullpen, and the lineup feels pretty top-heavy; if you wanted to talk me into jumping them over Baltimore because of the O’s sketchy pitching, I could see it, but I think it’s fair to leave them behind Philly and the Yankees for now.
Adam Weinrib: Wow. For the first time ever, Vegas nailed it. I’m a believer in the Red Sox, and was before they signed Bregman, but yeah, that feels about right. You can edge them towards the Yankees, but they still land behind the National League’s heavy hitters (where all the talent is these days anyway). I probably would’ve had Boston in the same spot if they just rolled with Kristian Campbell on Opening Day too, to be honest. That’s not anti-Bregman, it’s pro-Campbell.
Appropriate side note that Chris brought up earlier: the Yankees should be on edge, but the Orioles are in trouble. Need a sticky, troublesome window closed? Call Mike Elias: Window-Closing Specialist. He’ll close that window right up!
Mark Powell: My only issue with the Red Sox World Series chances are that there are too many ‘what if’s’, which is the case for most teams in their position, to be honest. I think Boston’s pitching will be tested more than most. I’m a little worried about oft-injured players like Trevor Story, and an ace who had an innings limit last season in Crochet. Overall, though, the American League is wide open which provides the Sox with an easier path than, say, the Mets and Dodgers. There’s something to be said about the path of least resistance.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work onThe Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB offseason.
Remember the Super Bowl? Yeah, what a silly game. Does the Eagles win give you more or less confidence that the Dodgers aren’t unbeatable after all?
Eric Cole: I think the narrative that the Dodgers are unbeatable is pretty silly. Baseball is just so different from other sports where individual performances don’t matter as much. The season is a marathon where every team loses at least 50 games and guys have to reach the playoffs playing well and healthy. Even if they dominate in the regular season, the smart money would probably be that they don’t make it all the way to the World Series again because weird stuff happens in the postseason.
That said, the Eagles made the Chiefs look not like a playoff team on the biggest stage. One cannot help but wonder how much better a Bills-Eagles Super Bowl would have been.
Adam Weinrib: Oh, yeah. The Dodgers are way more beatable than the Chiefs. When you’re trying to stop Kansas City’s offense, you know you have Patrick Mahomes (when healthy) staring you down, with the ball in his hands, on every single play. The Dodgers have several Mahomes-ian difference makers, and it’s hard to get around them, but in a short series, it’s far likelier they grow cold, especially as the series begin to compound. It’s somewhat inexplicable that Mahomes had the control taken away from him last night. It’s far more reasonable to expect the Dodgers to go as thump-free as they did in 2021, 2022, and 2023 once again this October. The narrative that LA is untouchable only comes from the rest of MLB being so complacent with their spending. The Dodgers did all they could to ensure against a backslide this fall, but in baseball, there’s no way to guarantee it.
Terrence Jordan: It’s certainly a good reminder that sustaining success over multiple seasons is incredibly difficult. Listen, the Dodgers are prohibitive favorites. They have what amounts to a superteam. But in baseball, even an all-time great team almost always wins less than 70 percent of its games. In a small sample size, sometimes that loaded die comes up tails once too often.
Zachary Rotman: The Eagles finding a way to win the Super Bowl changes nothing about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ status. They’ve always been beatable. Everyone in Major League Baseball is beatable, that’s what makes it the best sport ever. Are the Dodgers clear-cut favorites? Absolutely, but how often does the favorite win? Were the Dodgers even the best team on paper last season with all of their pitching injuries? Many picked the San Diego Padres to upset them, especially when the Padres held a lead in the NLDS. The Dodgers will be great, but their greatness does not guarantee them the Commissioner’s Trophy.
Chris Landers: I know that Kansas City was the two-time defending champ in that game, but from a roster perspective the Eagles feel more like the Dodgers than the Chiefs do. Either way, don’t succumb to L.A. inevitability. It’s not that baseball is less of a meritocracy than football is – the cream still rises and all that – but the season is so long, and full of so much randomness, that it’s always silly to take any team over the field at the start of the season. Yes, even a team as loaded as the Dodgers are: That starting rotation is still full of health question marks, and all manner of things can happen in a short series; heck, the Padres were within an eyelash of bouncing them out of the NLDS last year! Anything can happen, and there are plenty of good teams out there – maybe not good enough to be better than Los Angeles for 162 games, but certainly good enough to be better for five or seven.
Cody Williams: The Dodgers are rightful favorites to win the World Series but I’m not sure it’s completely fair to compare them to the Chiefs. Kansas City’s roster had some pretty obvious flaws that they overcame to get to the Super Bowl — LA has far fewer holes. At the same time, the game of baseball has a funny way of creating its own parity. The Dodgers still have health question, some of their gangbuster offseason signings (Roki Sasaki, anyone?) come with more uncertainty than some would like to admit. They’re favorites, but there’s always been hope that another team could oust them come October by the simple machinations of this dumb, beautiful game.
Pitchers and catchers report in a few weeks. Who will be the breakout star of spring training?
Eric Cole: I will say James Wood as he has one of the sets of tools that can gain a lot of attention in a hurry. He has light tower power and the athleticism to cause all sorts of havoc when he is on the field. I am unsure of exactly how good he will look going forward opposing big league pitchers now that they know a bit about him, but I have a high degree of confidence that he is going to do some special things against the roster filler he is likely to face in camp.
Adam Weinrib: Forgotten New York Yankees prospect Oswald Peraza! Just kidding, he will go 1-for-12 before suffering a hip flexor strain. I’ll go with Roman Anthony of the Red Sox, and he won’t make the Opening Day roster only because Boston’s outfield is so crowded, but he’ll force the issue before June.
Terrence Jordan: From the organization that gave us Paul Skenes last year, I’ll take Bubba Chandler of the Pirates. I’m a sucker for a high-level athlete named Bubba, especially if he throws in the upper 90s with three other nasty pitches to boot. Chandler is Pittsburgh’s top-ranked prospect and the fourth-ranked pitching prospect in baseball. The Pirates have been unwatchable for so long, but with Skenes, Jared Jones and eventually Chandler, they’ll have the young arm talent to make some noise. I don’t think he’ll make the Opening Day roster (even Skenes didn’t), but look for him to make his regular season debut sometime over the summer.
Robert Murray: Matt Shaw. He’s destined to be a star and everyone in and around the Cubs raves about his ability. I expect him to breakout in camp, win a spot on the Opening Day roster, and possibly cement himself as the Cubs’ best infield prospect since Kris Bryant.
Zachary Rotman: I’m going to go with Junior Caminero, who finally has a path toward not only making the Rays Opening Day roster, but hitting in the middle of their order regularly. Caminero has light-tower power as we saw in Winter Ball this offseason, and has superstar potential. It would not be surprising in the slightest to see him beat up on some lower-level minor leaguers with some seriously impressive home runs.
Chris Landers: It is, at long last, Jackson Jobe SZN. The best pitching prospect in baseball (sorry, Andrew Painter) got his feet wet at the Major League level in some very big spots down the stretch and in the playoffs last year, and now he’s ready to take off as a full-fledged member of the Tigers rotation. Fans might not realize just how good the righty is, but his days of flying under the radar are numbered (at least, if Detroit decides to actually sign some talent and get back to October).
Cody Williams: I’m riding an Alex Bregman high so I’m obviously going with Roman Anthony here as well. Hell, let’s throw Kristian Campbell in for good measure as well. For Anthony specifically, though, I actually disagree with Adam slightly in that Anthony will ultimately end up on the Opening Day roster. The Red Sox outfield is currently crowded. Yet, Craig Breslow has preached in recent weeks that Boston had been looking for both a right-handed bat and another back-end reliever. They got the right-handed bat with Bregman and now their best reliever options might be on the trade market, which could send guys like Wilyer Abreu out in a possible deal and make room for Anthony in the mix.
Rob Manfred was at the Super Bowl. If an MLB script exists for this coming season, what’s one weird item you’d love to add?
Eric Cole: At least once a week, a ball needs to take a truly crazy bounce in a big time spot of the game. Doesn’t matter the exact matchup. I just want once a week when there is a play that calls into question my understanding of the laws of physics and for it to matter in the game. I’ll leave the exact beneficiaries to the script writers as I don’t want to spoil the ending.
Adam Weinrib: Clayton Kershaw, after an offseason of assumptions without a done deal, chooses the Padres over the Dodgers. To account for the rotation overflow, San Diego then trades Dylan Cease to the Orioles…who flip Cease to the Dodgers after Jackson Holliday’s struggles land them in last place entering July. Cease defeats Kershaw in Game 5 of the NLDS, the first ever documented example of the left-hander coming up short in October.
Terrence Jordan: I’m going to miss Adam after he leaves us to become the next M. Night Shyamalan. I can’t top that, but if we’re looking to script something weird and entertaining, how about a little Freaky Friday action between the big budget Dodgers and the nomadic A’s? Let’s get Luis Severino a Cy Young and Mason Miller the saves record as we make Rob Manfred attend a World Series in a minor league park in Sacramento. My only ask is that the clubhouse doesn’t include a cardboard cutout of John Fisher that becomes increasingly nude with each unlikely win.
Zachary Rotman: This isn’t necessarily what I’d want to see, but it’d be really something to see the Dodgers just say “YOLO” and take advantage of the depleted Alex Bregman market. Adding him and beating the Astros a potential World Series matchup would be really something.
Chris Landers: May 16, 2025. The Mets head across town to take on the Yankees in the first game of this year’s Subway Series – and Juan Soto makes his hotly anticipated return to the Bronx to face the team he spurned in free agency. Carlos Rodon gets the start, comes out firing for a couple of innings and then promptly gets shelled, allowing the boys from Queens to take a commanding 11-2 lead into the top of the 9th. But wait: Determined to save face and prove that his star outfielder is the best in New York, Hal Steinbrenner makes the call to the bullpen and asks for … Aaron Judge, who takes the mound to pitch to Soto and give his pitching staff a breather.
Cody Williams: Anthony Rendon, out indefinitely with the Angels, resurfaces as a craftsman, a la Ron Swanson. While the Angels continue to toil in mediocrity not in small part due to the money committed to Rendon to essentially not play baseball anymore at this point (it’s wild when the meme is actually just the truth) and he’s creating the best damn handmade chairs that are available in the Los Angeles area. Find your passion, kids.
Spring training gives us an excuse to dig into the weeds. What is one random position battle you’re looking forward to?
Eric Cole: For all of the talk about Bregman, the Astros’ rotation is arguably the more pressing question with that team. They just lost Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi and with so many arms on the shelf recovering from various surgeries, the first couple of months are going to be very dicey. Seeing who comes into camp throwing well enough to get a look in the majors in addition to the rehab progress of guys like Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. is going to say a lot about Houston’s chances in 2025.
Adam Weinrib: What on earth is going on in Baltimore’s rotation? By the end of camp, do we feel like Grayson Rodriguez has taken a step forward into commanding an ace’s aura? Or are we left wondering whether Tomoyuki Sugano and Trevor Rogers as the Nos. 4 and 5 is part of a money-laundering scheme? This is not to mention Baltimore’s outfield! Where are all these guys goin’?
Terrence Jordan: Now that Pete Alonso is coming back to Queens, I’m looking to the battle for the Mets’ second base job. Jeff McNeil took a major step back for the second season in a row in 2024, and Luisangel Acuna showed in just 39 at-bats that he’s not afraid of the spotlight. Will McNeil’s positional versatility lead to him being used as a super utility man, or will Carlos Mendoza take it slow with one of the organization’s top prospects? I’m excited to find out.
Robert Murray: What’s the Guardians' rotation gonna look like? They’re looking for starting pitchers, sources say, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they add one or two before Opening Day.
Zachary Rotman: Assuming the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado, I’m fascinated to see who takes his spot in St. Louis’ infield. Will Nolan Gorman finally show an ability to make more consistent contact and play better defense if given the chance to play third base? Will Thomas Saggese win a starting role? The Cardinals have many players deserving of playing time, it’ll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
Chris Landers: Can I just list the entire Reds infield here? Cincy is a far more intriguing team than they’re getting credit for right now, one that could absolutely compete for a playoff spot – and has more interesting talent than it knows what to do with at several different spots on the depth chart. But the infield, in particular, is fascinating. Elly De La Cruz is locked in at short, but beyond that, it’s anybody’s guess: Will former top prospects Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand take steps forward and lock down starting jobs? What about Gavin Lux? Terry Francona is exactly the sort of guy I’d want to help sort this out, and if he does, we could have an NL Central contender on our hands.
Cody Williams: After signing Juan Soto, the Mets remain a massive talking point for the 2025 season. The lineup and rotation appear to be in a good spot but the bullpen is somewhat of a question mark. I wouldn’t go as far as to call it a concern necessarily, but it’s something that has the chance to be more important than fans in Queens might want to admit. As someone who has suffered through several years of no lead being safe thanks to the Red Sox bullpen, that’s something you want shored up coming into the year and I’ll be watching keenly to see how it gets sorted.
Philadelphia knows how to throw a party. Which MLB city (not Philly) would have the best night-of World Series banger?
Eric Cole: Definitely glad that Philly isn’t listed as an option as I have sworn a blood oath to not say anything nice about Philadelphia. Atlanta knows how to throw a party, but give me Milwaukee. A small market full of baseball diehards that knows how to brew good beer. I am a simple man who is getting older and that sounds like an absolutely delightful time.
Adam Weinrib: My wedding was in Philadelphia on the night the Phillies lost the World Series … so … I know which city throws the best “morose nuptials extravaganza”? I’m going to go with San Diego. Best climate in MLB and they want it so badly.
Terrence Jordan: As someone who greatly enjoyed the Tigers’ late-season run last year, I certainly wouldn’t mind Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty blowing the league away en route to the franchise’s first World Series title in over four decades. We saw how excited Motown was at the prospect of a Lions title, and I know they’d be jacked up if the Tigers could bite some kneecaps of their own.
Robert Murray: Cubs. That fanbase is so passionate and they’re always in my mentions begging for Jed Hoyer to do something. I know as a fact they’d throw an outrageous party. Give me the Cubs!
Zachary Rotman: Does anyone remember the crowd reaction when Jose Bautista launched his career-defining home run in the 2015 ALDS? That Toronto Blue Jays fan base wants it badly, and they haven’t had many chances to celebrate since Bautista’s blast. The Jays have not won a postseason series since 2016, and the fan base should be ready to celebrate when they finally do get back over the hump.
Chris Landers: I can’t believe Zach didn’t take the bait here, but don’t worry, I’ll do it for him. Mets fans created not one but two different memes in honor of a team that didn’t even reach the World Series last season; imagine what they’d do if they actually win one for the first time in nearly 40 years? At this point I think New York might be slightly underrated when it comes to sports celebrations, largely because we haven’t had too many in recent years. But if Steve Cohen brings the Commissioner’s Trophy back to Queens, half the borough might be on fire by morning.
Cody Williams: Would Seattle survive a Mariners World Series? That fan base has consistently had dirt kicked on them by the front office despite the obviously dominant pieces on the roster, most notably the pitching staff. This offseason has been no different. But if Seattle were to overcome that and end up celebrating a World Series, there’d be a helluva lot more than Starbucks flowing in the city, I assure you.
Robert Murray's notebook: What's new with the Padres and Guardians?
-The Cleveland Guardians are among teams looking for starting pitchers, sources say.
The San Diego Padres are looking for starting pitchers (and signed Nick Pivetta), sources say, with a Michael King trade looking increasingly unlikely.
feed