Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.
MLB teams have gone extension-crazy the last week-plus. Which of the major extensions was the best bargain, and were any overpays?
Eric Cole: I’ll go with Jackson Merrill’s $135 million extension. There is certainly a chance that Kristian Campbell’s deal ends up being the bigger bargain, but locking up a guy that should have won Rookie of the Year last season (I will not be moved on this) for nine years at a very reasonable AAV is an absolute heist without the same risk as extending a guy like Campbell with next to no big league experience. There is a reason why MLBPA didn’t want Merrill to sign that deal. A total steal for San Diego.
Zachary Rotman: I too will go with Jackson Merrill’s extension. As Eric mentioned, Campbell’s deal might end up being the bigger bargain if he lives up to his potential with the deal being half the price, but we already know Merrill is a star. He could easily become a superstar. Getting Merrill on that deal after he put together a year good enough to receive down-ballot MVP votes is ridiculously good business for the Padres. In terms of overpays, that has Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s name written all over it. Now, I don’t fault the Blue Jays for making this deal. If they weren’t going to trade him, they had to do this. Still, that does not mean Guerrero isn’t overpaid. He’s great, but he’s not worth $500 million and the second-largest deal in MLB history going by present value - especially as a first baseman.
Adam Weinrib: Merrill’s deal over Kristian Campbell’s for me, too. The Padres got someone who could be their Vlad Jr.-style centerpiece at the point in time when the Blue Jays probably should’ve locked up Vlad Jr. Campbell is probably going to be an excellent player. Same with Garrett Crochet. Somehow, Merrill, who’s played just one single season, has more big-league bonafides than either of them and cost right at the midpoint.
Robert Murray: The best bargain was Jackson Merrill’s extension with the Padres. Had he waited, he may have been looking at $400 million. But he’s already on the Injured List with a hamstring injury. It’s not deemed to be serious, but it shows why taking $135 million was very, very enticing.
The biggest overpay was probably Vlad Jr., and it’s still a deal I’d have done if I was the Blue Jays. They *needed* to get that done. Had they not, and he left in free agency, Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro would have been run out of Toronto. Now, they actually have the building block that can help recruit free agents.
The Blue Jays waited oh so long to sign their generational star. After missing on Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki, what does the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. deal mean for their long-term future?
Eric Cole: Honestly, I don’t think it moves the needle as much as some think it will. Toronto had a lot of trouble adding top level free agents when they had Guerrero Jr. under contract for cheap. Yes, they will now have him under team control through age 40, but it cost them a fortune to do so. I still think Bo Bichette walks after this season and the roster the Blue Jays have built still looks like a fringe wild card contender to me unless they get some help from the minor leagues AND get Vladdy Jr. some help.
Zachary Rotman: In theory, it should be easier for the Jays to sign marquee free agents now that Guerrero is fully committed to Toronto. Will that really be the case though? I’d have to see it to believe it. As Eric mentioned, the roster isn’t all that great as currently constructed, and their farm system isn’t any better. Until they find a way to produce more talent from within, it’s hard to envision the future being much better than the way things are right now.
Adam Weinrib: Like Boston extending Rafael Devers, they did exactly what they had to do. From this point forward, they have to focus inward, like the Red Sox did. This team, despite their ample Rogers money, isn’t going anywhere without more of a foundation. It was difficult to entice stars to Toronto before they committed to Vladdy. With a slightly smaller monetary pie now, it will remain difficult.
We’re more than 10 games into the MLB season. What’s your biggest takeaway so far?
Eric Cole: We were all wrong about the Giants. They made some high profile moves finally, but few thought they would amount to anything since they were in the same division as the Dodgers and, to a lesser extent, the Padres and Diamondbacks. Instead, they look like a force to be contended with and I won’t be shocked at all if they are fighting for the division title at the end of the season.
Zachary Rotman: Call me a homer all you want, but my biggest takeaway is that the Mets are the NL East front-runners. Yes, the Phillies are really good. No, the Braves don’t stink. Yes, 12 games is a ridiculously small sample. Still, it’d be hard to convince me otherwise. They’re 8-4 despite scoring two runs or fewer in eight of their 12 games. They lead the majors in ERA by a substantial margin despite a bevy of injuries. Do I expect that to continue? No, but their pitching is better than most expected it to be, and their offense, once the weather warms up a bit, should also be among the best in the sport. I’ve been burned plenty of times before, but it’s hard not to be incredibly optimistic about the Mets.
Adam Weinrib: The National League West is more terrifying than anyone expected. The AL is as wide open as anticipated, but I think it’s perfectly reasonable that four playoff teams might come out of the Dodgers’ division. Unfortunately for the rest of the baseball world, this will only make them more battle-tested. Additionally (sorry, Eric), I’m stunned at just how cursed the Braves’ season has been so far. Usually, über-talented teams don’t get hit with this level of nonsense in back-to-back years.
Robert Murray: That the Milwaukee Brewers, even with all their pitching injuries, can still find a way to get it done. At 0-4, the sky was falling, especially after that Yankees series. But they’re 7-5 and playing good baseball. That entire team epitomizes Pat Murphy: tough and resilient.
Which MLB team currently punching above its weight has the best chance to remain a contender into late September and beyond?
Eric Cole: I already mentioned the Giants and they are a strong contender here, but I will go with the Tigers. I think Detroit will have their hands full with the Guardians and Royals in the AL Central, but the Tigers have the pitching and young talent on offense to make a lot of noise this season. Their playoff run last year was not an aberration, these guys can play.
Adam Weinrib: Most of the standings sort of look the way we expected them to right now. To avoid dropping the Giants, I’ll go with the Toronto Blue Jays. The pitching staff was already in place. George Springer won’t be this all year, but Bo Bichette might. This is a Wild Card contender, as constructed.
Zachary Rotman: I’m going to try and be different here. The second-best team in the American League right now is the Los Angeles Angels. They’ve won each of their first four series. That’s not going to continue, obviously, and I don’t expect them to make the postseason. I do think they’re intriguing, though, particularly in an incredibly weak American League. Mike Trout is healthy knock on wood*, Logan O’Hoppe looks like a budding star, and Zach Neto should be back from injury any day now. Their pitching, led by electric right-hander Jose Soriano, is better than most think, and their bullpen is really solid late in games as well. The Angels could easily pull an Angels and mess things up at any moment, but I do think they have a roster more capable of being competitive than most did.
Robert Murray: Give me the Giants. They have the young pitching and now have a star on offense in Willy Adames. They have the ingredients to sustain it. But what about once they consistently play the Dodgers and Padres? I say they can - at least in the form of being a top Wild Card team.
Robert Murray's notebook: Insider details on the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract extension with the Blue Jays includes incentives, such as $150,000 for MVP ($125,000 for second, $100,000 for third). $50,000 for All-Star, $50,000 for Gold Glove, $50,000 for Silver Slugger, $50,000 for World Series MVP and $25,000 for ALCS MVP. The contract also includes a full no-trade clause.