When a team shows you who they are, believe them. Minnesota has showed us that they're the biggest threat to Oklahoma City in the Western Conference.
It's clear now that the Wolves will be an annual problem in the NBA Playoffs. A 56-win campaign last year ended with a WCF run, and a somewhat quiet 49-win regular season this year has resulted in, at worst, a second-round playoff appearance.
An up-and-down first half of the season mostly turned the public off of Minnesota, but they finished fourth in net rating, behind just OKC, Boston and Cleveland. Sometimes net rating can be deceiving, but I don't think this is one of those times — the Wolves deserve to be in the Finals conversation with those three teams.
I don't know if anyone in the West can beat Oklahoma City, but of the five teams remaining, Minnesota has the best shot.
Minnesota can match Oklahoma City's relentless defensive pursuit
Oklahoma City set defensive records this year. But it wasn't long ago — it was just last year, in fact — that Minnesota was comfortably the best defense in the NBA (108.4 DRTG), and that first-round series against the Lakers brought back memories of how last year's Wolves attacked on defense. Not to shortchange this year's defensive effort from the Wolves (they finished No. 6) but the intensity was ratcheted up even more against LA. That has to continue in a potential series against OKC if Minnesota wants a chance.
These teams don't defend in the same way — and I think that's a good thing for Minnesota's chances. OKC uses speed and mobility to take teams out of their offense (Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are all 6-foot-5 or under). Minnesota, meanwhile, uses size to disrupt (Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Julius Randle are all 6-foot-9).
Trying to beat OKC at its own game doesn't work. They're a historically good defensive team, and trying to match their defensive style would be fruitless. Minnesota does not match its defensive style, and that should, theoretically, be a benefit.
They played them well in the regular season, and Ant was held in check
Yes, I know that most of what happened in the regular season loses relevance the deeper we get into the playoffs.
But Oklahoma City lost 14 games all year. They didn't take nights off. So Minnesota going 2-2 against them feels a little weightier than it would in other years. And doing that while Anthony Edwards scored under 30 in every game makes your eyebrows perk a bit. Minnesota's star shot poorly in each game and the Wolves still split the season series. So these weren't crazy, unsustainable wins. If anything, OKC did a perfect job against Ant each game... and still lost two of them!
Minnesota brings unpredictability that other teams don't
In the first round, Minnesota got two "Jalen McDaniels games," one "Anthony Edwards game," one "Julius Randle game" and, against all odds, a "Rudy Gobert game."
Denver and Golden State don't bring that unpredictability. Stopping Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic is horrendously difficult, but at least opponents know those are the guys they need to stop. Jamal Murray will also produce the somewhat common playoff masterpiece, but overall, opponents know what to expect. When a defense is as good as OKC's, you don't stand a chance if they know what's coming. For Minnesota, even though Anthony Edwards is the guy to stop, there are a handful of players who can be the legitimate star of a game.
Maybe saying "this team has plenty of guys that can beat you" is a shaky reason to trust a 49-win team over a 68-win team, especially when the 68-win team also has plenty of guys who can take over a game. But again, I'm not predicting the Wolves to beat the Thunder if they do happen to match up in the WCF. I don't do predictions! I'm just saying that, if I had to pick one of the five remaining West playoff teams to match up with OKC... I'm riding with Chris Finch and Anthony Edwards. And Rudy Gobert, apparently.
NBA news roundup
- James Jones is no longer the GM of the Phoenix Suns, as Brian Gregory will take over those duties. I've never been less jealous of someone getting a promotion. But best of luck, Brian. No pressure on that Kevin Durant trade.
- Even before the Damian Lillard injury, the Bucks were considering some big offseason changes, according to Eric Nehm and Sam Amick of The Athletic. Now Milwaukee is in purgatory — but at least its purgatory with one of the best players in the NBA, right? Right???
Houston might never beat Steph Curry
Game 5 showed what the Rockets can be when everything is clicking. The ball was zipping on offense, 3-pointers were going in, the defense was as communicative and stifling as it has been all season.
And it doesn't matter. Because Steph Curry owns them, forever and always. This would be the fifth time Curry and Golden State eliminate Houston from the playoffs, and this one might be the most painful of all because we know that Houston should be able to beat the Warriors. They should have the defensive answers for Curry. They should be able to exploit Golden State's weak bench. It just hasn't happened. The Rockets aren't dead, but they're down 3-2 as the series heads back to Golden State, and I have no confidence in this team yanking out a win at Chase Center. I wish I did... but I don't.
First-round losses never feel good, but Houston has no reason to fret if they fall on Friday. Things are still looking great for the future. They just can't beat that damn Steph Curry.