You’ve likely seen the recent tweets about the 40-20 rule. It was coined by the legendary coach Phil Jackson and is as predictive as it is simple: If an NBA team reaches 40 wins before 20 losses, they are officially a title contender.
A scan of the data backs up Jackson’s claim: 37 of the last 41 NBA champions won 40 games before losing 20. That’s a hit rate of 90 percent. What’s more, 76 percent of NBA finalists reached the milestone.
So which teams fit the criteria this season? As of this past weekend, three teams qualify. The Cavaliers (47-10), Thunder (46-11) and Celtics (41-16).
With a pair of losses to the Cavaliers and Celtics over the weekend, the Knicks (37-20) were eliminated. Also just missing the cut are the Nuggets (38-20) and Grizzlies (37-20).
But, since 1980, four exceptions have gone on to win the championship despite failing the 40-20 test. The 1994-95 Rockets (47–35), 2003-04 Pistons (54-28), 2005-06 Heat (52-30) and 2020-21 Bucks (46-26) all captured the Larry O'Brein trophy despite losing 20 games before winning 40.
Houston broke all kinds of precedents by becoming the lowest-seeded team to ever win the title. Detroit was buoyed by the midseason addition of Rasheed Wallace, widely regarded as the most impactful trade deadline acquisition in league history. Miami, in the second season of the Shaquille O’Neal-Dwyane Wade partnership, was 11-10 when Stan Van Gundy resigned as coach and was replaced by the legendary Pay Riley. Milwaukee won in a pandemic-shortened season that serves as an outlier for obvious reasons.
Is this the year we see our fifth exception to the 40/20 rule?
If any team is destined to join that list, I’d look at the Nuggets. They won two years ago and employ the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic. As they worked in a handful of young players, as well as the exigent Russell Westbrook, they started the season 11-10. Since then, Denver has gone 27-10 — easily surpassing a 40-20 pace.
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Jamal Murray is the league’s ultimate X-factor
To win a second championship in three seasons, the Nuggets need Jamal Murray to play like he did during their last Finals run.
Murray averaged 26 points during the 2023 Finals run. For his career, the Nuggets are 83-21 in games when Murray scores at least 25 points.
Denver has won 10 of its last 11 games in large part because Murray has rediscovered his prime form. He’s averaging 25.2 points on 54.6 percent shooting (49.3 percent on 3s) and 6.4 assists over the last 11 games and led the Nuggets in scoring in four of those 10 wins.
Jokic is the best player on the planet, but he needs a running mate. Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has Jalen Williams. Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell has Darius Garland. Boston’s Jayson Tatum has Jaylen Brown.
When the Nuggets are at their best – when Jokic and Murray are making sweet music together – they are nearly unstoppable. The Nuggets should be considered a contender despite not passing the 40-20 test, but they’ll need the best version of Murray when it matters most to become the fifth exception to the rule.
NBA News Roundup
- The Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns scored 299 points in Tuesday night’s overtime game, combining for the most points in a game this season, according to ESPN research. The Suns blew a 10-point lead and the Grizzlies closed overtime on a 7-0 run on their way to a 151-148 win. Ja Morant led the Grizzlies with 29 points and eight assists.
- Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic will miss at least four weeks with a fractured right hand, the team announced Tuesday. The third-year forward, who carved out a helpful role as Miami’s versatile third big behind Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware, will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
- The Charlotte Hornets made history on Tuesday night… but not in a good way. They officially have the worst point differential over a four-game span in NBA history, getting out-scored by an average of 36.3 points per game from Feb. 20 to Feb. 25, including Tuesday night’s 128-92 loss to the Golden State Warriors.
Luka Doncic opens up about emotional game vs Mavs
Luka Doncic posted his first triple-double as a Laker to help fuel a win over his former team, the Mavericks, on an emotional Monday night.
"It was just a lot of emotions and not much sleep," Doncic said after posting 19 points, 15 rebounds and 12 assists in the Lakers’ 107-99 win. "I'm just glad it's over, honestly."
"It definitely will help me," Doncic said about putting this game behind him. "It's definitely going to help in the long [run]."
Among the sights and sounds from Crypto.com Arena include Lakers fans cheering Mavericks GM Nico Harrison, who watched Doncic go through his pregame warmups; Doncic doing pushups during that warmup; A tribute video for Anthony Davis, whose street clothes included a fuzzy, light blue jacket as he sat out with an adductor strain; a no-look, behind-the-back pass from Doncic to Austin Reaves that drew oohs and aahs from the crowd; and LeBron James uncorking 16 points to pull away in the fourth quarter.
This was the first game Doncic played against his former team since the blockbuster Feb. 2 trade that sent shockwaves through the NBA and basketball world. Doncic has been open about how he has struggled to accept his new reality in the aftermath of the trade.
"The closure is going to take a while, I think," Doncic said. "It's not ideal. But like I said, I'm glad this game is over. There was a lot of emotions. But we go little by little, and every day is better."
But the emotions aren’t over. On April 9, the Lakers will travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks in the arena he called home for the first 6 ½ years of his career.
As we continue to evaluate this surprising trade, one thing we can’t lose sight of is the emotional toll on Doncic, who was more surprised than anyone. This was a perennial MVP candidate who dreamed of playing his entire career in Dallas, only to be shipped out in a trade late on a Saturday night. He woke up to the news on his phone and was off to Los Angeles the next day. It’s been a whirlwind 25 days.