Top 5 biggest surprises from the first half of the EPL season

With the Premier League’s busy holiday rush behind us and a slate of FA Cup yawners coming up, it’s time to take a breath. This is the perfect time to look back at the first half of the EPL season and the top five biggest surprises of the campaign so far.

The Citizens struggle, at least for a bit

When Ballon d’Or holder Rodri injured his ACL against Arsenal on Sept. 9, everyone knew Manchester City would miss his masterful presence in the midfield. Strangely enough, the Citizens then went on an 11-game unbeaten streak. 

City’s now-infamous run of poor form actually began on Oct. 30 with a 2-1 loss to Tottenham. They won only one of their next 12 matches across all competitions, a slide that coincided with injuries to defensive stalwarts Ruben Dias and John Stones, along with goalkeeper Ederson. (The side was already missing promising youngster Oscar Bobb, who broke a leg bone just before the season opener.)

The fact that City made headlines around the world because they didn’t play well for seven weeks and dropped all the way to sixth place is a testament to just how great they have been in recent years.

The good news for Pep Guardiola and his squad is that, despite their performance blip, they sit just six points out of third place, having won their last two matches by a combined score of 6-1. And they face Salford (FA Cup), 11th-place Brentford and 18th-place Ipswich Town in their next three matches, promising more points and more time for their players to get healthy.

There is even serious talk that Rodri will come back to play sooner rather than later. The lesson is clear: Never count out Pep and Man City. Circle your calendar now for a key date. On Feb. 2, City travel to the Emirates to face Arsenal in what’s sure to be a titanic clash.

Liverpool alienate Mo Salah

How to describe how vital Mo Salah has been to Liverpool? Like water to a fish? Like “Wheel of Fortune” to a Boomer? Like mustard to a hot dog?

With The Pharoah flying around the pitch, the Reds have won the Champions League, Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup.

Along the way, Salah has scored 232 goals for the club, ranking fourth all time. If he stays healthy, he will pass and catch Liverpool legend Gordon Hodgson into third place this season.

He’s also won the EPL Golden Boot three times and PFA Player of the Year twice.

So why is the club dragging its cleats when it comes to offering Salah a new contract? According to published reports, Liverpool didn’t even present its initial offer until December. For his part, Salah has gone on record saying the two sides are nowhere near close to a deal, and this is likely his last season at Anfield. 

Salah, who turns 33 in June, wants a three-year contract, which is anathema to the Reds’ thinking of not offering long-term deals to players over age 30. To be fair, the club does have a good point. Plainly put, wingers don’t age well.

Some of the best wingers in Premier League history infamously fell off a cliff in their early 30s. David Beckham, Gareth Bale, Robert Pires…the list goes on. One of the few exceptions is Ryan Giggs, who scored 64 goals for Manchester United after age 32. 

However, in Salah’s case, he’s simply playing the best soccer of his life right now. Through 27 matches in all competitions this season, he has 21 goals and 17 assists. Liverpool is six points clear at the top of the EPL table and lead the Champions League standings by three points.

Liverpool, pay the man. 

Nottingham Forest emerge

Seven months ago, Forest was fighting to avoid relegation. Now they’re third in the table behind Arsenal only on goal differential. In his first full season as manager, Nuno Espirito Santo and his team have shocked the soccer world.

Espirito Santo has done a remarkable job as Forest’s puppet master since taking over in December 2023, given that the team had to install a revolving door in the changing room to manage the dozens of players transferring in and out. Over the past two campaigns, Forest have purchased 19 new players while selling 12. 

But, somehow, Nuno has managed to shape this side of strangers into a true contender for a European place this season. The attack is led by Chris Wood, who joined on loan from Newcastle in Jan. 2023. The New Zealander, age 33, has found the fountain of youth, scoring 12 goals in 20 league appearances. Midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White, who came over from Wolves in 2022, has seven goal involvements. So does winger Anthony Elanga, who joined from Manchester United in July 2023.

It's the defense, however, that has sparked Forest’s resurgence. The side is tied for second in the league in fewest goals conceded (19). Serbian international Nikola Milenkovic, acquired from Fiorentia in July 2024, has been a lockdown center-back. The same can be said for Murillo, the 22-year old who will soon be a star on the international stage for Brazil. Ole Aina and Neco Williams have stood out at right-back and left-back, respectively.

Can Forest continue their fantastic run of form? The next few weeks should be telling, beginning Jan. 14 when they face Liverpool at home. In February, they face ninth-place Fulham, fifth-place Newcastle and second-place Arsenal in successive weeks.

The league’s next great playmakers arise

So who will be the Premier League’s next Mo Salah, Harry Kane or Jamie Vardy? Which players are on the path to writing their names in the record books?

While it is difficult to predict exactly who will be the EPL’s future stellar playmakers, we are seeing some obvious candidates begin to emerge among the league’s best young players.

Chelsea have two of them, both products of the more than £1.2 billion the club has spent on new players since Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital took over in 2022.

Cole Palmer might not actually belong on this list of this season’s surprises after notching 22 goals and 11 assists in 2023-24. But the 22-year-old midfielder, who came over from Manchester City for £40 million in Sept. 2023, is proving that last season was no fluke. Through the first half of this campaign, Palmer has 13 goals and six assists in 20 matches. His highlight reel showcases not only his clinical finishing ability, but also his superlative passing and touch on the ball.

His teammate Nicolas Jackson, the 23-year old acquired from Villa Real in July 2023 for £31 million, suffered a severely sprained ankle this past summer playing for Senegal and missed nearly two months. But he has fought his way back to shine for the Blues up front. He has nine goals and three assists in league play so far. Five weeks ago, he scored in back-to-back matches to help Chelsea beat Leicester and Aston Villa.

Down in Brighton, another 23-year-old forward is becoming mega. Joao Pedro has five goals and five assists in 14 league matches, including two assists in Brighton’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on Dec. 30 and a penalty kick goal in their 1-1 draw at home against Arsenal on Jan. 4. The Brazilian also made his second-ever appearance for the Selecao in September in a loss to Paraguay.

As Ipswich Town battle to avoid relegation, 21-year-old forward Liam Delap has come on like a freight train, more than justifying the £15 million the Tractor Boys (and part-owner Ed Sheeran)  spent to acquire him from Hull City this past summer. To date this season, he has eight goals and two assists. Like Palmer, Delap is another emerging talent who Manchester City let escape from their system. To misquote Ipswich's part-owner, their supporters have become in love with the shape of Delap.

Finally, it’s no exaggeration to say Amad Diallo is the only highlight of Manchester United’s historically poor start to the Premier League season The 22-year old from the Ivory Coast seems to be the only player actually benefitting from new manager Ruben Amorim’s 3-5-2 structure. The newly minted wingback has three goals and six assists in 18 league matches.

Tottenham Hotspur collapse

Spurs finished fifth in the EPL last season, just two points shy of the last Champions League place. This achievement seemed to quell any concerns about the club slipping into mediocrity following the departure of all-time-leading goalscorer Harry Kane to Bayern Munich before the start of the 2023-24 campaign.

Brimming with confidence, Tottenham opened the bank vault before the 2024-25 season. They spent £53 million on prolific goalscorer Dominic Solanke, £35 million on wunderkind right-back Archie Gray and £24 million on right-winger Wilson Odobert. In all, the club shelled out some £139 million on transfers this past offseason.

Yet through the first half of this campaign, Spurs find themselves mired in 12th place, with roughly half the points of league leaders Liverpool. Their recent form has been nothing short of atrocious. They’ve won just once since Nov. 4 – and that victory, a 4-0 clobbering of Man City on Nov. 10, doesn’t seem all that impressive given City’s problems.

Yes, Spurs have been ravaged by injuries this season. For example, in their Jan. 4 match against Newcastle, Tottenham had four starters and three regular subs out with injuries or sickness (and another suspended). And yet they managed to take an early lead before eventually losing 2-1. 

But injuries and illness impact every team. This season, Arsenal’s training room has been just as busy as Tottenham’s, if not more. But the Gunners have persevered and sit second in the EPL table. The bottom line is that Spurs have spent more cash in the past five transfer windows than all but two other Premier League clubs. Squad depth should not be such a huge problem.

So the journey goes on for manager Ange Postecoglou to build his own roster and implement his own tactics. Will the club continue to back him if Tottenham cannot climb out of the bottom half of the table soon? There’s no indication that Spurs’ board and fans won’t give Postecoglou more time, especially if he can get the team into the Carabao Cup final. 

But at some point, every underperforming manager runs out of excuses.