It feels strange to have arrived at Selection Sunday with real questions about if the UNC Tar Heels are going to have a place in the March Madness bracket, but here we are. Hubert Davis' team has been a fixture on the bubble in Bracketology projections for a long time now and there are questions about whether or not they did enough down the stretch to get on the right side of it and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
The Tar Heels had the perfect opportunity at hand in the ACC Tournament with a semifinal matchup against rival Duke. The Blue Devils were without star freshman Cooper Flagg and North Carolina had the perfect chance for the Quad 1 win they so desperately needed to leave little doubt about their NCAA Tournament fate. But a wild comeback attempt being thwarted by a Jae'Lyn Withers lane violation gave UNC its third loss to Duke and left the March Madness questions coming.
Soon enough, though, the Selection Sunday special will begin and we'll all find out North Carolina's fate. But if you want a spoiler, let's break down whether or not the Tar Heels will find their way into March Madness after a disappointing year overall.
Will UNC make the NCAA Tournament?
Though you can never say these things with absolute certainty until all 68 teams have been revealed, it's highly unlikely at this point that North Carolina makes it into the March Madness field. The Tar Heels had a golden opportunity to lock up their spot in the NCAA Tournament in the aformentioned conference tournament showdown with a Flagg-less Duke but came up short. Without that, despite UNC getting hot down the stretch, they're likely to be left out.
The latest Bracketology projections entering Selection Sunday confirm as much among the leading experts. ESPN expert Joe Lunardi has the Tar Heels among the First Four Out behind Xavier (Last Team In), Boise State and Texas. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports also has UNC in the same position with the First Four Out, though with Boise State getting into the field and Xavier being left out alongside the Tar Heels and Texas, both teams being listed ahead of North Carolina.
North Carolina Tar Heels resumé for March Madness
Here's a look at how the UNC Tar Heels resumé breaks down according to the NET rankings before we dive into why North Carolina is on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament.
Team | Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | Quad 3 Record | Quad 4 Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina | 1-12 | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-0 |
When you get down to it, the Tar Heels' record in Quad 1 games is the reason that they're destined to be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. They had 13 opportunities to secure a meaningful victory against one of the better teams in college basketball this season, but came up short almost every time, including the ACC Tournament loss to Duke. While UNC deserves credit for a tough schedule, that only matters if they'd done even slightly better against that schedule. 1-12 isn't going to cut it, even if the team went 21-1 in all other games.
While one could argue that teams like Xavier and Boise State have worse resumés to their credit than North Carolina (that's objectively true), the games always have to matter. In the case of the Tar Heels, it would feel strange to reward this team with an NCAA Tournament berth despite playing so poorly against the best competition on their schedule.