UNC men's basketball news: Wake Forest loss, NCAA Tournament chances, Caleb Wilson announcement

Just as members of the royal family are mostly able to avoid the troubles that most of us commoners deal with, supporters of college basketball's blue-blood programs rarely get a chance to see how the other half lives. For fans of the North Carolina Tar Heels, it's been a rude awakening.

Carolina lost at Wake Forest last night to drop to 12-8 on the season, a mark that is nearly unheard of in Chapel Hill. It's been a roller coaster ride these last few years for the Heels, who since their last national championship in 2017 have had two terrible seasons in which they missed the NCAA Tournament completely (we're counting the COVID year when UNC was 6-14), two seasons in which they earned a 1-seed before being upset in the Sweet Sixteen, and two seasons in which they earned an 8-seed. One of those tournament appearances resulted in a first-round loss, while the other saw them improbably reach the national title game by beating archrival Duke to get there.

No longer is UNC a school that fans can automatically pencil into the Sweet Sixteen every year. Instead, the Tar Heels are more like Forrest Gump's description of a box of chocolates — you never know what you're going to get.

We'll begin our news of the week by going over last night's performance in Winston-Salem, then move on to Carolina's NCAA Tournament chances and the latest recruiting news. Here we go.

UNC's second straight one-point loss was a microcosm of what's gone wrong this year

Carolina fans have known all year that the Heels have a major problem in the frontcourt. Armando Bacot is gone after five superb years, and the team has really missed his presence in the post. Bacot led the ACC in rebounding in his final three seasons, and the combination of Jalen Washington and Vanderbilt transfer Ven-Allen Lubin has not been able to fill that void.

Carolina gave up 25 points to Stanford's star center Maxime Renaud on Saturday, and they were outrebounded by eight at Wake Forest on Tuesday night. In a game in which both teams really struggled shooting the ball, that rebounding edge made the difference.

Perhaps the Heels could overcome their lack of strength in the paint by outscoring teams, but shooting has been a major issue for this team, too. Hubert Davis' team shot 8-32 from three last night, and that was with a couple of makes in the final minute that were basically meaningless.

The most troubling part of this team's shooting woes is that they're not forcing shots. Most of these looks were wide open thanks to the drive-and-kick ability of point guard Elliot Cadeau, but whether it was RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell or Seth Trimble, nobody was able to knock down these open looks with any consistency.

Carolina already led the nation in one-possession games coming into this one, and they added another to their ledger when RJ Davis' buzzer-beating three swished home to trim the four-point margin to one. The Heels are now 5-4 in one-possession games. That list includes losses to Kansas, Michigan State and now Wake, all of which could have seriously helped their NCAA Tournament resume.

Hubert Davis didn't exactly instill confidence in the fanbase with his postgame comments, and as unthinkable as it seems, he's undoubtedly on the hot seat for the way his team has performed in his four years in charge.

UNC's NCAA Tournament status

Going into Tuesday's game, ESPN's Joe Lunardi had Carolina as one of his "Last Four Byes" in the tournament. Bracketology hasn't been updated since the loss to the Demon Deacons, but it's difficult to imagine the Heels still being in the field at 12-8.

It really feels like the Tar Heels are only in the conversation for the Big Dance because of the name on the jersey. UNC is now just 1-7 in Quad 1 games, with the only win being a two-point win over UCLA in December. The Bruins have lost four of seven since that game, which if it keeps up could mean that Carolina will be left with zero Quad 1 wins.

Unfortunately, there aren't many opportunities left to impress the selection committee, because the ACC has been extremely unimpressive. The conference got smoked in the ACC/SEC Challenge by an embarrassing score of 14-2, and outside of Duke, doesn't have a single team that is projected to get a top-four seed.

Carolina can punch its ticket if it's able to beat the Blue Devils in one or both of their upcoming meetings, but that's going to be a tall order. Duke has looked fantastic behind freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, and the Blue Devils are undefeated in the ACC while winning by 23 points per game.

Other potential resume-builders are road dates at Pitt, Clemson and Virginia Tech, but none of those are exactly signature-quality wins. Add in Carolina's issues even with mediocre teams, and it's looking more likely than not that this team will miss the tournament.

Caleb Wilson recruiting update

Though the current roster surely has its shortcomings, Hubert Davis is trying to shore up next year's team by pursuing five-star prospect Caleb Wilson. Wilson is a 6-foot-9 forward out of Georgia, and he has Carolina as one of three finalists in his commitment decision, which is scheduled to take place Thursday.

One of Wilson's finalists is Ohio State, but recruiting experts seem to believe that it's a two-horse race between Carolina and Kentucky for Wilson's services. Kentucky has been seen as the favorite throughout the recruiting process, but in the last couple of days, the tides have begun to shift, with many in the industry believing that Carolina is now in the driver's seat.

If Wilson does commit to UNC, he'd be the fourth five-star recruit that Hubert Davis has landed, joining Cadeau, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. All three are underclassmen that could be back next season, which if Carolina could find a strong center in the transfer portal, could equate to a formidable team.

Carolina already has a couple of four-star guards committed to come to Chapel Hill next year in Derek Dixon and Isaiah Denis, and they figure to play a big role as the second-leading scorer in UNC history, RJ Davis, will be graduating.

No time has been given for Wilson's announcement, so keep your eyes peeled Thursday for more news.