When I made my opening round picks last week, I was entirely aware that the chaos of Atlanta meant that my analysis largely would amount to very little.
And when a 22-car pileup hit just minutes into stage two ... that exact scenario came true. Top-seeded Denny Hamlin was out just like that, as were many other top contenders for the $1 million.
Somehow, heading the streets of Chicago for round two feels like a safer bet for making picks.
What are the rules of the NASCAR In-Season Tournament?
Think March Madness, but cars, and those who are eliminated will get to keep driving.
32 drivers qualified for the in-season tournament by being in the top 32 of the NASCAR Cup standings four weeks back. Then for the three races that preceded Atlanta, those results set the seeding.
There are five races in the challenge -- Atlanta was the opening round and dropped the field from 32 to 16.
This week in Chicago, that bracket will go from 16 to eight.
Who is left in the NASCAR tournament bracket?
One wild round is complete.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) June 29, 2025
Four more to go. 😏 pic.twitter.com/LwcLqtttPw
16 drivers are left in the field heading into the unpredictable street course, making just its third appearance on a Cup schedule.
The top remaining seed is No. 3 Chris Buescher, while lowest overall seed Ty Dillon advanced.
What races are left in the tournament?
Including this weekend in Chicago, four races are left. All races will be on TNT. Chase Elliott won the opening round in Atlanta.
Round | Track | Date/Time |
|---|---|---|
Round of 16 | Chicago (street course) | Sunday, July 6 @ 2 p.m. |
Round of 8 | Sonoma (road course) | Sunday, July 13 @ 3:30 p.m. |
Round of 4 | Dover (1-mile oval) | Sunday, July 20 @ 2 p.m. |
Championship Round | Indianapolis (2.5-mile oval) | Sunday, July 27 @ 2 p.m. |
Predictions for the second round of the NASCAR In-Season Tournament
#17 Brad Keselowski vs. #32 Ty Dilllon
I completely wrote off Ty Dillon last week, even with the unpredictability factor of Atlanta. Chicago brings that too, but here's the facts about Dillon on courses with right turns: dating back to 2018, he's never finished better than 15th, and has three top 20s in 25 chances. Keselowski isn't much better (one top 10 dating back to 2020 on road courses) but that's enough.
WINNER: Keselowski
#8 Alex Bowman vs. #9 Bubba Wallace
Wallace's road course prowess has improved, but it is simply not at the standard of the defending Chicago race winner. Bowman has deliver top 10s in both road courses in 2025, while Wallace is still looking for one.
WINNER: Bowman
#5 Chase Elliott vs. #12 John Hunter Nemechek
There was a time before the NextGen car where a road course race with Chase Elliott not in the win discussion was an oddity. But now, this weekend to the date, will be four years since Elliott has won on a road course (July 4, 2021 at Road America). But this isn't to say he isn't still good at them. Fresh off a win, it's hard to bet against the guy with three-straight road course top fives and a top 10 conversion rate of 14/21 since his last win at one. Nemechek put down a P6 in Mexico, but hasn't done much else at these types of tracks.
WINNER: Elliott
#20 Erik Jones vs. #29 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Back when Erik Jones was racing for Gibbs, he was pretty good at delivering decent road course results, but since his time with Petty/Legacy, his stats at these types of tracks has actually only gotten worse. Stenhouse isn't much better -- he put up a P6 last year here, but that was a product of wet weather chaos. Stenhouse hasn't qualified in the top 30 in either Chicago races.
WINNER: Jones
#15 Ryan Preece vs. #31 Noah Gragson
P25 was enough to get Noah Gragson and his tough 2025 season to the next round, while Ryan Preece comes in on the back of four consecutive top 15s. Neither of these guys is much for the right-turn tracks. I'm trying not to let Gragson's 2023 adventures at this track cloud my judgement too much but...
WINNER: Preece
#23 Tyler Reddick vs. #26 Carson Hocevar
No shade to Carson Hocevar and his impressive 2025 season, but this is Tyler Reddick at a road course he's going up against. Reddick has nine top fives in his last 20 races at tracks like these, and Reddick was a lap away from winning at Chicago in 2024. Plus, Hocevar now has TWO guys ready to put him in the wall.
WINNER: Reddick
#6 Ty Gibbs vs. #22 AJ Allmendinger
What happened to Dinger's road course expertise? He's finished 30th or worse in three of his last five races at tracks like these. He also has a best finish of 17th in his first two cup tries in Chicago. Meanwhile, Gibbs has finished top 10 in both Chicago tries and has shown his stuff at road courses despite still lack a Cup win of any kind.
WINNER: Gibbs
#3 Chris Buescher vs. #14 Zane Smith
Zane Smith is a talented driver and would be a great Cinderella for this tournament ... but I just can't see it happening. Buescher has emerged as one of the handful of guys you can count on to challenge for the win at tracks like Chicago every time. Although he only has an average finish of 15th in Chicago, the #17 car has finished top 10 in 16 of his last 18 road course races.
WINNER: Buescher