Expectations were fairly low for the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, with Kirk Cousins bolting for the Atlanta Falcons and the team playing in arguably the most competitive division in the NFL. Expectations dipped even lower when Cousins' replacement, J.J. McCarthy, suffered a season-ending injury before his rookie year even began. The Vikings wound up defying expectations, going 14-3 and nearly winning the toughest division in the league before suffering a frustrating Wild Card Round loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
The biggest reason why the Vikings were able to have the magical season that they did was because Sam Darnold, a quarterback that the team took a one-year flier on, took off. Darnold completed 66.2 percent of his throws for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns compared to 12 interceptions. He wound up making the Pro Bowl and receiving MVP awards while playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC. Sure, having arguably the best receiver in football (Justin Jefferson) and Kevin O'Connell's play-calling undoubtedly helped, but Darnold deserves immense credit for how he played.
Given how wildly successful Darnold's debut season in Minnesota was, there was reason to expect that even with McCarthy returning from his injury, the Vikings would want Darnold back. They've said all the right things about wanting him back, but how they've acted suggests the opposite. It feels clear as day after the NFL Draft Combine that Darnold will land elsewhere this offseason based on what NBC Sports' Matthew Berry had to say.
"The Vikings want J.J. McCarthy to start next year. So, they don’t want to try and sign Darnold to an industry standard starting QB contract, which for a QB coming off the year he had starts at at the very minimum $40 million a year and goes up from there. So, they don’t want to do that. They have not made a contract offer to Darnold. Like, not even a low ball one. Nothing. They also don’t want to franchise tag him UNLESS they know for a fact, they can then trade him. And so far, there’s not much of a market for him."
Vikings' actions make it abundantly clear they're moving on from Sam Darnold
The Vikings have said they'd like to bring Darnold back, but actions speak louder than words. The Vikings are acting like a team that has no interest in bringing Darnold back. Berry is reporting that they've made no effort to bring him back, not even sending a single offer his way. They have not even attempted to lowball Darnold and chose to pass on giving him the franchise tag. The only way they would have tagged him, according to Berry, would've been if they could've found a trade for him. The Vikings not making him an offer and choosing not to tag him suggests they're preparing for him to depart in free agency.
In a sense, this stance makes sense. The Vikings not only selected McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but they traded up to get him. They want him to be their franchise quarterback. If they believe that strongly in him, paying Darnold, even if it's slightly less than market value, would not make much sense. They need to commit fully to McCarthy without having Darnold looming in the background.
With that being said, the Vikings are pretty clearly taking a risk, here. Having a young player on a rookie contract is obviously way more valuable than paying someone like Darnold around $40 million a year, but McCarthy has not played a single NFL snap. For all we know, he might not be cut out for the NFL. Darnold might not have a long track record of success, and his season ended very poorly, but for much of the 2024 campaign, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC. He played well enough to win 14 games and have a shot at the NFC's No. 1 seed in Week 18. Letting him go for a completely unproven 22-year-old absolutely can backfire.
It's a risk, but a worthwhile one for the Vikings to take. They took one on Darnold, and that could not have played out much better for Minnesota. Keeping McCarthy while bringing Darnold back would not have made much sense, so it's good to know that the Vikings are not planning for that outcome.