Vikings latest Sam Darnold rumor would be a catastrophic mistake for Minnesota

The Minnesota Vikings' offseason will hinge on a difficult decision: what to do with Sam Darnold.

A former top-3 pick turned NFL journeyman, Sam Darnold arrived in Minnesota with muted expectations. He was pegged as a gap quarterback, a short-term starter who could hold down the fort until rookie J.J. McCarthy was up to speed.

As fate would have it, a preseason ankle injury knocked McCarthy out for his rookie season, leaving Darnold on an island as the Vikings' lone viable option to replace Kirk Cousins. His experience in Kyle Shanahan's offense, even as a reserve, made him an appealing fit for the Kevin O'Connell scheme, but there was no reason to believe Darnold, a flunked starter in New York and Carolina, would produce dramatically better results with the Vikings.

Then he did. Darnold finally found his footing at 27 years old, completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns en route to a Pro Bowl berth. Such are the benefits of working alongside Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and the NFL's brightest play-caller. Suddenly Darnold is a hot commodity on the free agent market — and maybe even too good for the Vikings to let go of.

That puts Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the front office in a bind. McCarthy is still on the roster and projects as Minnesota's long-term quarterback, but Darnold could field offers in excess of four years and $100 million this summer. The Vikings won 14 games in the regular season. That sort of success does not come with just any ol' QB.

Does Minnesota just let him walk or re-sign him? Or, does the Vikings front office take a half-measure?

Vikings could stumble into worst possible Sam Darnold solution this offseason

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler ($) thinks the Vikings might deploy the transition tag ($35.3 million) in an attempt to keep Darnold around on a short-term basis. On the surface, that's a perfectly acceptable option, essentially replicating the initial plan with Darnold and McCarthy from last offseason. Dig a little deeper, however, and potential concerns pop up.

For one, the Vikings might let Darnold get in McCarthy's way. Keep him around for north of $30 million, and there's no chance Darnold begins the season as a backup. McCarthy was less experienced than many of his peers in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the Vikings' offense is a great setup for a young quarterback, and his natural talent ought to shine when Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and others are catching passes.

Darnold, for all his success in 2024, stumbled down the stretch. Minnesota lost its final regular season game in blowout fashion before getting boat-raced in the NFC Wild Card Round by the 11-win Rams. Darnold was far from perfect this season (12 interceptions, eight fumbles), and one might be justified in thinking this was more of a flash in the pan than a new normal.

There are also concerns inherent to the transition tag, which allows Darnold to negotiate long-term contracts elsewhere. Should Darnold agree to terms with another team, the Vikings would have a chance to match, but not a chance to recoup draft picks if they let Darnold walk. If Minnesota were to franchise tag Darnold, he'd be on the hook for a higher price tag, but Minnesota would at least get first-round picks if he signed with a new team.

Minnesota's draft stores are already dangerously low, with no second, third, or fourth-round picks in the 2025 draft. Letting Darnold walk without receiving any compensation would sting. For reference, the franchise tag value for quarterbacks in 2025 will be $39.6 million, per Spotrac.

It's cleaner to either let Darnold walk or to re-sign him to a proper contract, which would allow the Vikings to recoup McCarthy's trade value. I'd bet the Giants, Raiders, and Browns would take a mighty strong interest in McCarthy, who is arguably a better "prospect" than either Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward. The 2025 draft is notoriously weak at quarterback.

Either commit or don't. The Vikings cannot afford to bungle the Darnold situation.