Way-too-early WNBA MVP Rankings: Why Breanna Stewart has made herself the frontrunner

Is it ever too early to talk about WNBA MVP candidates? I mean, we do it in the preseason, so why not also do it after one week of basketball? Sure, you might say it's too small of a sample size to draw conclusions from, but sample sizes are an illusion, a man-made construct, a...

Just kidding. I'm not going to get all existential to defend extrapolating from a one-week sample. This order will almost certainly shift as more information becomes available, and two of these players likely won't even be in the top five by the end of the season. Still, let's talk about where we are now.

5. Veronica Burton, Golden State Valkyries

The 2-1 Golden State Valkyries finally had a poor offensive showing in their 69-63 loss to the Chicago Sky, but overall, the team looks like a major threat this season. Maybe not a championship threat, but at least a threat to advance to the semifinals in the postseason.

Veronica Burton deserves plenty of credit for how well the team is playing. She ranks sixth in the league in wRAPM this season and is averaging a career-high 15.0 points and 7.3 assists per game. While some of the team's other players might be getting more attention at the moment for their shooting, Burton is the engine that makes the Valkyries run. If someone on the roster deserves early MVP hype, it's her.

4. Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury

Alyssa Thomas continues to just do everything. The Mercury forward — who has finished in the top five of the MVP voting in four consecutive seasons — is currently averaging 16.3 points per game, the best mark of her career. No Satou Sabally, no problem — Thomas has picked up the slack a bit as a scorer while continuing to do everything else well too.

Thomas is also flirting with a double-double average for the first time, as her assists per game sit at a career-best 9.3. Everything Phoenix does runs through her, and while the team is only 1-2 on the year, it has a huge 30-point win over the defending champion Aces, with Thomas posting a stat line in that one of 20 points, nine assists and six rebounds.

3. Jonquel Jones, New York Liberty

With the New York Liberty short-handed, former MVP Jonquel Jones has had a chance to shine. She's averaging 13.3 points per game along with 6.7 rebounds, with her most important attribute at this point being her ability to stretch the floor on offense, which helps make up for her Liberty front-court partner's shooting struggles. (More on that in a bit.)

Will Jones stay in the MVP race? Probably not. Sabally returning is going to eat into her touches, though her floor-stretching will still be useful. I'd expect a downtick in post touches once Sabally is back, but Jones will also be able to expend more energy on defense. She could potentially emerge as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

2. A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

The four-time MVP — or M'VP, if you will — has watched her scoring numbers dip a bit in the opening stretch of the season...but only down to 20.0 points per game. Her rebounds are down as well, but there's a good reason for that: every Vegas game has been a blowout, with a 30-point loss to open the year followed by a 105-78 win over the Sparks and a 98-69 win over the Sun. She's also ceding touches to Chennedy Carter, who is on a full-on heater at the moment. Honestly, Carter might deserve an honorable mention in the MVP race and is a leading Sixth Player of the Year

Wilson remains the best player in the league, with her numbers this season not telling the full story yet. She's still second in the league in wRAPM, and she is the most important player on the defending champions. Take that season-opening loss out of the equation and we're looking at this as a closer race between Wilson and the next player on this list.

1. Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty

Breanna Stewart is currently running away with MVP. Her wRAPM is the highest in the league by a good bit at plus-7.3, with Wilson second-best at plus-5.5. She has the highest defensive wRAPM in the league and is tied with Jones for the best offensive wRAPM.

There's just one issue that could cost her the award: two of her best teammates, both potential All-Stars, are coming back at some point, and having to share the ball with two more players won't be the easiest thing in the world.

Still, at this point, Stewart is lapping the field. If you don't believe the advanced stats posted above, just look at the where she ranks in some of the more traditional stats:

Stewart's really struggled to shoot from deep — her 3-point field goal percentage sits at a paltry 10 percent — but that's basically been her only flaw. She can score anywhere inside the arc while also being a devastatingly good defender. The fact that she's done this well with her shot falling so poorly actually makes me even more optimistic that she can keep herself planted at the top of the MVP ladder, because she has room to improve her efficiency and thus still score this many points even if her usage drops a bit.

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