What the Dallas Wings' free agent moves say about their WNBA Draft plans

The Dallas Wings have the No. 1 pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft. They also have as many as four viable options for who to draft at that spot, and who they're most likely to use that pick on seems to change by the minute.

Take Friday, for example. In the morning, there were rumors that the Wings might be interested in trading Arike Ogunbowale for Ezi Magbegor, which would probably signal that the team would be looking at a guard in the draft. By the end of the day, though, the Wings had signed Ogunbowale to a seven-figure extension, making it far less likely that she'd be involved in a trade and potentially swinging the pendulum back to the Wings selecting a big, except then they signed Jessica Shepard, complicating things even more. So, what does this mean for Monday's WNBA Draft?

The key to the No. 1 pick is Arike Ogunbowale

I've spent this entire offseason assuming that what the Wings did with Ogunbowale would answer the question of what they'd do in the draft. There are some good players at the top of this year's draft class, but there isn't a guaranteed star. If the Wings brought back Ogunbowale, it seemed to signal that they'd go with a big with the No. 1 pick. If they moved on from Ogunbowale — maybe via a sign-and-trade, as the team was connected to both Shakira Austin and Ezi Magbegor in the early part of free agency — then they'd be taking UConn guard Azzi Fudd.

The Wings seemed wishy-washy on Ogunbowale's future basically up to the point that they agreed to her extension. It's entirely possible that they wanted to trade her and nothing materialized, and the team then opted to just keep her around and try to make the pairing with Paige Bueckers work. This is speculation on my part, but it makes sense. It's entirely possible for the Wings to be interested in seeing what they could get for Ogunbowale while still ultimately viewing her as a better option beside Bueckers than anyone in this draft class.

Assuming we don't get a surprise trade after this extension, Friday's move should crystallize Dallas' decision at the top of the draft. Running a three-guard lineup with Bueckers, Ogunbowale and either Fudd or TCU point guard Olivia Miles would be a defensive disaster at a level that feels completely unsustainable, so as long as the Wings' front office knows what it's doing here, the choice should be down to Awa Fam and Lauren Betts.

Jessica Shepard won't preclude the Wings from taking a big

Signing Shepard was a surprise, but I don't think it's going to be as impactful as far as the draft goes as the Ogunbowale extension.

For one, the big need for the Wings is a center. Shepard could play the five, but her passing skills make her better suited for the four, another spot that the Wings needed to shore up. While Shepard lack of shooting upside makes for a bit of an awkward frontcourt fit, I think the rest of what she does should make up for it. She'll thrive in the pick-and-roll with Bueckers, and she's arguably one of the WNBA's best passing bigs, which will help with ball movement. If the team can get Ogunbowale to play off-ball more consistently, I can imagine a number of times where Shepard hits and open Arike for a catch-and-shoot look.

I've been on team "draft Awa Fam" for the entirety of the draft process, but a different move back on Friday may have changed my mind about that. After a two-year absence, the team is bringing back former No. 2 overall pick Awak Kuier, a versatile big who shares some commonalities with Fam in the sense that both are long, athletic bigs. You can make them work together — and I think it'd be fascinating to see, to the point where I still think it's what Dallas should do — but might the Kuier signing be a signal that the Wings will be interested in a more traditional post big with the No. 1 pick?

That player would be Betts, an excellent interior scorer and rim protector. I've been a bit suspicious at times of her adjustment to the pro level simply because her archetype feels a bit outdated, but there's no denying that she can be one of, if not the, best players in the league among that archetype. Even if the league is moving away from paint-bound bigs, having an elite version of that type of player can still be an advantage. Think about how good Teaira McCowan was when she was fully engaged, and now imagine if McCowan had better movement and defense and was always engaged.

At this point, Betts is my pick for what the Wings will do. Fam is still my pick for what they should do. And the dream of a Bueckers and Fudd pairing feels like it still could happen, but it isn't what I'd expect or what I'd want to see from the Wings.